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Analysis of aid flows and aid effectiveness in the Central African Republic in 2007
 

Analysis of aid flows and aid effectiveness in the Central African Republic in 2007

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Over the last two years, humanitarian assistance has made a decisive contribution to the stabilization the Central African Republic while the country’s condition was at its most critical. Back from ...

Over the last two years, humanitarian assistance has made a decisive contribution to the stabilization the Central African Republic while the country’s condition was at its most critical. Back from the brink of collapse, the benefits of peace and stability now would have to be spread much wider throughout this desperately poor country, if the patient were to recover successfully. However, while humanitarian assistance is levelling off and may well decrease in 2009, development support is still lacking too far behind to pick up the thread. The looming recovery gap now jeopardizes CAR’s fragile progress, as data from the country’s new aid management system shows.

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    Analysis of aid flows and aid effectiveness in the Central African Republic in 2007 Analysis of aid flows and aid effectiveness in the Central African Republic in 2007 Presentation Transcript

    • Aid to CAR in 2007, management and effectiveness Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 1 Mar-09
    • A. Aid management in CAR Overview of the aid management system and first results for 2007 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 2 Mar-09
    • Aid management improves coordination Aid management system in brief Aid management systems worldwide • Public online database for humanitarian and development aid • Donors, implementers, projects, finances, sectors, places • Key tool for Paris Declaration follow-up • Donors mainly responsible for data entry • In place in more than 40 countries, common in Asia, rare in Africa Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 3 Mar-09
    • Making aid work better Goals for aid management in CAR Website http://dad.minplan-rca.org • Monitor PRSP, CAP, UNDAF progress • Render humanitarian and development work more transparent • Provide same info to everyone • Better reflect partner contributions • Facilitate aid coordination • Build national capacity Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 4 Mar-09
    • Data entry progresses rapidly Number of projects documented in detail in the aid management system 276 243 202 176 96 12 Sep ‘08 Oct ‘08 Nov ‘08 Déc ‘08 Jan ‘08 Fév ‘09 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 5 Mar-09
    • Rising aid to CAR since 2005 Encouraging numbers External assistance (gross) Development • Aid more than doubled since $251m Humanitarian $242m 2005 WB arrears clearance • Multilateral reengagement since 2006 • No bilateral reengagement in $126m development work $117m • Humanitarian aid brings additional $81m resources and new donors $63m 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 6 Mar-09
    • Total external assistance in 2007 Numbers remain relatively high $242m disbursed in 2007 (gross) $78m, Humanitarian $80m, Projects • $164m disbursed for development (32%) (33%) activities and projects (78% of total) • Positive effects of PRSP and Round Table • $78m disbursed for humanitarian action (32% of total) • Humanitarian and recovery support 2,5 higher than in 2006 $9m, Tech. cooperation $74m, Budget support (4%) (31%) Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 7 Mar-09
    • Development aid in 2007 Multilateral support is essential Disbursements (Top 10)* • $335m commitments signed for $54.1m EC specific projects and activities* United Nations $36.4m • $164m disbursed by donors* IMF $31.0m France $24.2m • Multilateral institutions represent AfDB $17.5m 80% of disbursements United States $17.5m • $155m spent by implementers China $12.8m (government, UN, NGOs, etc.) World Bank $7.6m Sweden $5.7m Japan $5.6m * Including for multiyear projects and activities Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 8 Mar-09
    • Post-conflict profile of development aid Top four sectors represent more than 75% of expenditures in 2007 $44m (30%) Action related to debt Government, peace and civil soc. $36m (23%) Health $22m (14%) Non-specific budget support $14m (9%) Population and reproductive health $8m (5%) Transport and storage $6m (4%) Divers social sectors $6m (4%) Multisector aid $4m (3%) Education $4m (3%) Forestry $3m (2%) Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 9 Mar-09
    • Stuck in the recovery gap… Only 20% of direct development expenditure outside the capital Bangui < $1m > $1m > $3m > $6m > $9m > $12m Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 10 Mar-09
    • Slow to get going… Commitments* for specific projects started rising in 2007 < $1m > $1m > $3m > $6m > $9m > $12m * Commitments signed in 2007, including for multiyear projects and activities Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 11 Mar-09
    • Humanitarian aid in 2007 Quick response to urgent needs Disbursements (Top 10)* • $79m commitments signed for $17.2m United States specific projects and activities* United Nations $15.6m • $78m disbursed* France $7.1m EC $7.0m • 2,5 times higher than in 2006 Sweden $5.7m • Brings additional resources and Irland $3.7m donors Japan $3.6m • $54m spent by implementers (75% Netherlands $3.2m by UN, 25% by NGOs) Canada $2.7m Germany $1.9m * Including for multiyear projects and activities Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 12 Mar-09
    • Survival was priority Heavy concentration on food security $23m (43%) Food security and agriculture $12m (22%) Multisector aid to IDPs / refugees Health $9m (17%) Coordination and logistics $7m (13%) $1m (2%) Education $1m (2%) Shelter and non-food items $1m (2%) Protection and human rights Water and sanitation $0.5m (1%) $0.1m Staff security and safety Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 13 Mar-09
    • Survival was priority More than 90% of expenditure outside of Bangui < $1m > $1m > $3m > $6m > $9m > $12m Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 14 Mar-09
    • Navigating the recovery gap in 2008 (and 2009) aid slow to get going in 2008 Expenditures concentrated in Bangui Development < $1m • Aid transfers likely rose slightly to > $1m more than $260m (+10%) > $3m > $6m • Development aid remained > $9m concentrated on Bangui: debt, > $12m peace, governance and HIV/AIDS • More development commitments, but concrete projects (and results) still hardly visible • Humanitarian aid remained heavily focussed on food security for 2nd year in a row Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 15 Mar-09
    • B. Aid effectiveness context in CAR Results of the Paris Declaration Implementation Survey 2008 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 16 Mar-09
    • Appropriation Country exercises effective leadership over its development policies and strategies OECD survey results for 2007 Priority actions for CAR • Mark D (A=strong, D=weak) Create institutional framework • PRSP contains best-practice Render framework operational elements but is not operational Design sector strategies • Numerous elements not in place Prepare MTEFs – Sector strategies Render PRSP operational – Global or sector MTEFs – Action, results, and impact matrixes Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 17 Mar-09
    • Alignment Donors base their overall support on national strategies, institutions and procedures OECD survey results for 2007 Priority actions for CAR • Mark 2 for public financial Put aid management system in management systems (1=very place weak) Elaborate procedures and guides • Budget underestimates aid for national execution • Accounting system not operational Build project management capacity • Procurement regulations obsolete Improve public financial management systems • Most projects not managed by the government, due to weaknesses Improve public procurement systems Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 18 Mar-09
    • Harmonisation Donors’ actions are harmonized, transparent and collectively effective OECD survey results for 2007 Priority actions for CAR • Very little programme or sector Support sector strategies aide Develop joint strategies • Few joint missions Harmonise procedure • Little joint analytical work Reinforce capacities of agencies working in CAR Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 19 Mar-09
    • Managing for results Managing resources and improving decision-making for results OECD survey results for 2007 Priority actions for CAR • Mark D (A=strong, D=weak) Render monitoring and evaluation framework for PRSP operational • Evaluation framework contains best- practice elements but is not Execute priority surveys operational Build statistical capacity • Lack of reliable and regular statistics Put aid management system in • Low capacity of statistics institute place Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 20 Mar-09
    • Mutual accountability Donors and partners are accountable for development results OECD survey results for 2007 Priority actions for CAR • Absence of mutual review Improve quality of dialogue mechanisms between government and partners Render PRSP coordination framework operational Put aid management system in place Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 21 Mar-09
    • Not all gloom… The good news for aid effectiveness since 2005 HIPC Country signs Paris Declaration Re-launch of humanitarian and First PRSP and first First year of PRSP development work Donor Round Table implementation with new UN team, aid flows start rising Country reaches UN Peacebuilding HIPC decision point Commission Free and fair World Bank clears engages elections after coup debt arrears Number of NGOs in 2003 (Bozizé working in CAR Aid management confirmed) IMF, AfDB reengage rises from 3 to 30 system put in place 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 22 Mar-09
    • C. General country context Basic info on the Central African Republic Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 23 Mar-09
    • Landlocked in the volatile centre of Africa Chad Sudan Nigeria Darfur CAR Cameroon DRC Uganda Congo Gabon Rebellion or internal conflict Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 24 Mar-09
    • Rich soils… Sudan Chad Darfur Cameroon Bangui Diamonds Gold DRC Timber Congo Uranium Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 25 Mar-09
    • Desperately poor population… More than 67% of CAR’s 4 million people live on less than one dollar a day 73 70 67 64 61 61 59 Mali Nigeria CAR Niger Burkina Faso Gambia Zambia Source: World Bank (2002) Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 26 Mar-09
    • No development progress… One of only two LDCs in Africa with a falling human development indicator Human Development Index (HDI) Growth, Base = 100 (1985) +45% Burkina Faso, Niger, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Mozambique, Chad, Ethiopia CAR +30% DRC +15% 100 -15% 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: HDR (2007) Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 27 Mar-09
    • Widening growth gap… Income per head (PPP) grew by less than 20% in CAR, but doubled in Sub-Saharan Africa GDP growth, Base = 100 (1985) +100% Sub-Saharan Africa CAR +80% +60% +40% +20% 100 -20% 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: IMF (2007) Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 28 Mar-09
    • Growing aid gap… Development aid to Sub-Saharan Africa rose by 87% since 1985, but fell by 49% for CAR ODA Growth, Base = 100 (1985) +100% Sub-Saharan Africa CAR +80% +60% +40% +20% 100 -20% -40% -60% -80% 1995 1985 1990 2000 2005 Source: OECD (2007), Development Assistance Disbursements (constant USD), All donors Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 29 Mar-09
    • Because of political instability? CAR scores -1.69 on the World Bank’s political instability index -2.5 -1.0 0 1.0 2.5 South Africa Rwanda Angola Uganda Central African Republic Chad Nigeria Cote d’Ivoire Sudan Congo, Dem. Republic of Somalia Source: World Bank (2007), Worldwide Governance Indicators, Selection Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 30 Mar-09
    • Very limited international presence in 2007 Birao Ndélé Paoua Kaga-Bandoro Bossangoa Bozoum Bouar Sibut Bambari Bangui Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 31 Mar-09
    • Displacement in the north of the country Intense conflict in the north from mid 2006 to mid 2007 Refugee camp Am Timan Border Prefecture Birao Town / settlement Road Road banditry Intense conflict Sam-Ouandja Severe attacks / burning Ndélé Gore Wau UN Kaga-Bandoro UN UN Bossangoa UN Bozoum UN Obo UN Bangui 500 km Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 32 Mar-09
    • Increasing humanitarian financing Consolidated Appeals Process (CAP) financing rises from $2.9m in 2004 to $106.5m in ‘08 $106.5m $77.7m $23.9m $9.8m $2.9m 2005 2008 2004 2006 2007 Source: FTS (2008) Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 33 Mar-09
    • International presence in late 2008 Birao Gordil Ndélé Sam Ouandja Kabo Paoua Kaga-Bandoro Bocaranga Bossangoa Mbrés Bozoum Obo Bouar Sibut Bambari JUPEDEC BANGUI Source: HDPT CAR / Sep 08 500 km Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 34 Mar-09
    • For more information go to: http://dad.hdptcar.net http://www.hdptcar.net Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 35 Mar-09