Navigating the recovery gap: aid flows to the Central African Republic in 2008/09

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Analysis of aid and aid effectiveness in the Central African Republic (CAR) in 2008, one of the world's poorest and least developed countries. Plus a sober outlook for 2009, when humanitarian aid is likely to drop off significantly and the impact of the global economic crisis will be fully felt in CAR. Based on data collected with CAR's aid management system DAD, a key tool for improving aid effectiveness and transparency in fragile states.

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Navigating the recovery gap: aid flows to the Central African Republic in 2008/09

  1. 1. CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC Aid in 2008 and perspectives for 2009 Ministry of Planning, Economics and International Cooperation Central African Republic Page 1
  2. 2. CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC A. Progress in implementing the aid management system Page 2
  3. 3. CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC Aid management improves coordination Aid management system in brief Aid management systems worldwide • Public online database for humanitarian and development aid • Donors, implementers, projects, finances, sectors, places • Key tool for Paris Declaration follow-up • Donors mainly responsible for data entry • In place in more than 40 countries, common in Asia, rare in Africa Page 3
  4. 4. CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC Strong support from partners for DAD More than 320 projects documented in detail in online database 324 276 243 202 176 96 12 Sep ‘08 Oct ‘08 Nov ‘08 Dec ‘08 Jan ‘08 Feb ‘09 Mar ‘09 Page 4
  5. 5. CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC B. Analysis of external assistance in 2008 Page 5
  6. 6. CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC Putting aid to CAR in perspective Humanitarian aid and multilateral reengagement served as catalysts $295m Development Humanitarian $251m $242m Clearing of debt arrears $126m $117m $81m $63m 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Page 6
  7. 7. CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC Total external assistance in 2008 Encouraging numbers $295m made available (gross) • $320m committed in 2008 for new $90m, Humanitarian $150m, Projects (31%) (51%) projects or activities* • $295m made available by donors* • Increase of more than 20% compared to 2007 • $233m spent by implementing agencies (government, UNO, NGOs, etc.) $6m, Tech. cooperation $54m, Budget support / (2%) debt relief (18%) * Including for multi-year projects or activities Page 7
  8. 8. CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC C. Development aid in 2008 Page 8
  9. 9. CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC Development aid in 2008 Multilateral support remains vital Resources made available (Top 10)* • $226m committed in 2008 for new EC $62.7m development projects or activities* World Bank $34.3m • $204m made available / disbursed United Nations $23.3m by donors, inline with Round Table IMF $23.2m commitments* France $17.3m • Multilateral institutions account for Global Fund $16.0m 90% of disbursements AfDB $9.6m GAVI $3.5m • $167m spent by implementing China $2.3m agencies (government, UNO, NGOs, etc.) Germany $2.1m * Including for multi-year projects or activities Page 9
  10. 10. CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC Sector concentration improves slowly Top 4 sectors account for 78% of development expenditure in 2008 Budget support / debt relief $46m (28%) Health 25m (15%) Security, peace and justice $21m (13%) Transport and infrastructure $19m (12%) Governance $18m (11%) HIV/AIDS Top four sectors in 2007: 81% $12m (7%) Budget support / debt relief Forestry $7m (4%) Health Governance Security, peace and justice Education $5m (3%) Transport and infrastructure HIV/AIDS Water and sanitation $4m (2%) Forestry Education Business environment $3m (2%) Non-allocated Rural development Page 10
  11. 11. CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC Field impact remains very limited Only 20% of dev. aid spent directly in regions (home to 80% of population) < $1m > $1m > $3m > $6m > $9m > $12m Outside Bangui 2007: 15% Page 11
  12. 12. CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC D. Humanitarian aid in 2008 Page 12
  13. 13. CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC Humanitarian aid in 2008 New high, but lower momentum Resources made available (Top 10)* • $95m committed in 2008 to United States $23.8m humanitarian projects / activities* United Nations $11.9m • $90m made available / disbursed by EC $9.2m donors* Japan $5.3m • 3.5 times higher than 2006 United Kingdom $4.6m Sweden $4.6m • Humanitarian aid brings new donors Ireland $3.8m and additional resources France $3.4m • $66m spent by implementing Netherlands $2.7m agencies (72% UNO, 28% NGOs) Canada $2.5m * Including for multi-year projects or activities Page 13
  14. 14. CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC Humanitarian aid lacks balance Heavy concentration on food aid (distributed in key agricultural regions) Food security and agriculture $34m (52%) Health 8m (12%) Coordination and logistics $7m (11%) Multi-sect. assistance refug./IDPs $5m (8%) Education $5m (8%) Top four sectors in 2007: 75% Protection and Human rights $3m (5%) Food security and agriculture Multi-sect. assistance refug./IDPs Health Water and sanitation $3m (5%) Coordination and logistics Education Economic recovery / infrastructure $1m (2%) Shelter and non-food items Protection and human rights Water and sanitation Shelter and non-food items $0.4m Staff security and safety Page 14
  15. 15. CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC Strong field impact key to stability 80% of humanitarian aid spent directly in fragile northern regions < $1m > $1m > $3m > $6m > $9m > $12m Outside Bangui 2007: 80% Page 15
  16. 16. CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC E. Some perspectives for 2009 Page 16
  17. 17. CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC Falling into a recovery gap? Development aid stabilizes while humanitarian aid is likely to decline $295m Development $251m $242m Humanitarian Clearing of debt arrears $126m $117m $81m $63m 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009* * Based on data available as of Mai 2009 Page 17
  18. 18. CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC Strong impact of global economic crisis… Steep declines in wood (-60%) and diamond production (-80%) Cubic metres Carats 30,000 60,000 Wood (cut) Wood (sawn) Diamonds 25,000 50,000 20,000 40,000 15,000 30,000 10,000 20,000 5,000 10,000 01/07 07/07 01/08 07/08 12/08 Page 18
  19. 19. CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC … but lack of response in the field Commitments to projects in heavily affected southern regions very limited < $5m > $5m > $15m > $30m > $60m > $120m Diamonds Uranium Bangui Gold Wood * Projects signed in 2007/08 Page 19
  20. 20. CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC Improving the capacity to implement… Aiming to facilitate disbursements Overview of commitments* • $1074m committed for development projects active in 2008, 2009 and beyond $1074m • $424m (41%) made available by the end committed of 2008 • $650m to be made available between 2009 et 2012 $424m made available / disbursed • Concerted effort required to improve implementation capacity to facilitate disbursements $349m spent Commitment Disbursement Expenditure * Development support only, without humanitarian aid * Commitments to development projects active in 2008, 2009 or beyond Page 20
  21. 21. CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC … with the support of DAD DAD directly contributes to improved aid effectiveness and coordination 1 Budget Raising the percentage of development aid reflected in the national budget from less than 50% to 85% Coordination Public Invest. Plan 2 Providing key data to DAD Providing projections on sector and regional Aid Management System public investments financed with foreign aid (~95%) 4 coordination committees MTEF Contributing data and projections on expenditure of development projects 3 Page 21
  22. 22. CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC Improving the quality of public finances Only 25% of dev. aid disbursements reflected in public expenditure tables $204m made available $43m accounted for in 2008 public expenditure tables 0 $50m $100m $150m $200m Page 22
  23. 23. CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC Strengthening the PRSP process Key tools and their links Aid management as a key priority • Foreign aid finances 98% of public PRSP investment • Foreign aid finances about 50% of Budget SP current expenditure in the budget • DAD covers 85% to 100% of aid GESCO DAD • DAD will help to improve: – Sector policies MTEF PAP – Priority action plans – Public investment plans PIP – Multi-year expenditure frameworks – National budget Page 23
  24. 24. CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC Key tools for PRSP monitoring DAD: tracking aid disbursements DevInfo: tracking needs indicators • Provides financial data on projects • Organizes statistical time series on implemented within PRSP evolution of needs indicators framework • Regular, comprehensive and • Allows for comprehensive M&E in representative surveys are priority correlation with DevInfo no 1 for 2008 Education (average investment by region)* Primary enrolment (measure of invest. impact)* $12m 100% $9m 80% $6m 60% $3m 40% $1m 20% Situation 2008 1990 2000 2010 Situation 2010 1990 2000 2010 * Example, for illustration only Page 24
  25. 25. CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC For more information • http://dad.minplan-rca.org • Désiré Yassigao | desire.yassigao@minplan-rca.org Project coordinator | Ministry of Planning • Kersten Jauer | kersten.jauer@undp.org Senior Information Manager | UNDP Supported by the ARCAD project – Building capacity for the implementation of CAR’s poverty reduction strategy Aid coordination | Public finances | Anti-corruption measures | Administrative reform | Business environment Page 25

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