17 Nov08  Rei Fernandes
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  • 1. Road Map for Portugal Rei Fernandes Research Group on Energy & Sustainable Development Instituto Superior Técnico
  • 2. Overview
    • Hydrogen Roadmaps
    • Methodology & Assumptions
    • Modelling, Results & Impacts
    • Action Plan
      • Short Term
      • Medium-Long Term
  • 3. The Hydrogen Economy
    • HYDROGEN represents a promising way to a more sustainable energy system. However, R&D is still needed to cut costs, improve performance and evaluate advantages and obstacles to the introduction of hydrogen into transport and power generation markets.
    • Many regions of the world have developed, or are making efforts to prepare a hydrogen roadmap.
  • 4. A Hydrogen Roadmap is:
    • A JOINT ENDEAVOR of industry, government, academia and the public providing a structured process for a coordinated, long-term effort in preparing, introducing and implementing hydrogen into energy and transport systems.
    • AN IDENTIFICATION INSTRUMENT for the key technologies, products and markets, together with foreseeable obstacles to their development, introduction and use, and the possible measures to be overcome.
    • AN ASSESSMENT of expected impacts on the market, society and environment.
  • 5. A Hydrogen Roadmap is:
    • A NAVIGATION TOOL for strategic planning and implementation of research development, structural changes and infrastructural investment.
    •  
    • AN OPPORTUNITY FOR COMMUNICATION between all involved stakeholders of different backgrounds, viewpoints and interests.
      • Provides a national platform to encourage the development of a hydrogen economy
    • A TECHNICAL, ECONOMIC AND STRATEGIC ANALYSIS leading to a master plan with a derived list of actions based on a combination of visions pathway scenarios and systems modeling.
  • 6. Origins of PT Roadmap
    • Origins of Portuguese hydrogen energy roadmap go back to 2003
      • Group of interested parties led by SRE began negotiations with the Agency for Innovation for a proposal on new energy technologies that facilitate the growth of the hydrogen economy.
      • Government sponsor – not driver
    • Actual Start – October 2006
    • 2003-2006 - Portuguese institutions became involved in a series of pan-European hydrogen related research projects.
  • 7. HyWays Recommendations
  • 8. Methodology
    • Vision building through Stakeholder participation - HI-PO
    • SCENARIOS DEVELOPMENT
      • Scenarios workshop
      • Scenarios development
      • Consultation with experts
      • Final set of scenarios
    • MULTI-CRITERIA ANALYSIS
      • Definition of stakeholders' panel
      • Multi-criteria mapping interviews
      • Analysis of the interviews' results
    • PATHWAYS & ROADMAP
      • Pathways analysis and contribution for the definition of a hydrogen roadmap
  • 9. Assumptions
    • Assumptions are very important
      • Can change the results dramatically
    • Main Assumptions
      • Fossil Fuel Price evolve over time (but high level of uncertainty)
      • Share of renewable energy in the Hydrogen Production
      • Costs and cost evolution of the Hydrogen technologies (high level of uncertainty, lack of validated sources of information)
      • Ban on nuclear
      • No “conventional” Coal Power Plants without carbon sequestration will be implemented from 2015 onwards
  • 10. Scenarios
      • Baseline scenario of business as usual
      • High penetration rate
      • Moderate penetration rate
    These scenarios have a mandatory target for hydrogen technologies for the transport, residential and commercial sectors at two different penetration rates
  • 11. Penetration Rates Transport Stationary 40.0% 22.6% 7.6% 0.7% Moderate penetration 74.5% 54.4% 23.7% 3.3% High penetration 2050 2040 2030 2020 Scenario / Point in Time 1.7% 5% 0.7% 2% 0.2% 0.5% >0% 0.1% Moderate penetration 3.3% 10% 2.7% 8% 1.3% 4% 0.3% 1% High penetration Com Res Com Res Com Res Com Res 2050 2040 2030 2020 Scenario
  • 12. Bounds Minimum share of renewable energy in hydrogen production T echnology-specific bounds for hydrogen production 40% 33.3% 26.7% 20% 2050 2040 2030 2020 <30% <20% <15% Solar thermochemical cycles <10% <15% <20% <20% Centralised production with CCS (coal and natural gas) >7.5% >5% >5% >2.5% Wave >20% >20% >10% >7.5% Wind 5-10% 5-15% 5-15% >5% Biomass 2050 2040 2030 2020 Technology/fuel
  • 13. Models used
    • TIMES – dynamic cost optimisation model to determine the lowest cost technology solutions to satisfy both the demand and any set of restrictions. It targets technological, environmental and economic impacts .
    • Copert – model for calculating pollutant emissions such as (CO2, CO, NOx. SOx) from the transport sector. It targets environmental impacts.
    • ISIS – input-output model for calculating the social impacts of the introduction of hydrogen.
    • Infrastructure analysis – semi-quantitative process of determining geographical distribution of hydrogen technologies over time.
    • KCAM – fully qualitative systematic process for collecting the views of the stakeholders. Identification of key changes needed for a successful hydrogen introduction in the Portuguese energy system.
  • 14. Modelling Schematic representation of the modelling process (Adapted from HyWays) Schematic representation of the TIMES modelling process
  • 15. Total Hydrogen Production
    • Mainly for transport sector
    • Transport by truck, 90% as compressed hydrogen
  • 16. Hydrogen Production Mix
  • 17. CO2 & GHG Emissions: Commercial Supply Sector Transport Total GHG emissions
  • 18. CO2 emissions: & driving cycle According to vehicle type According to driving cycle
  • 19. Astra Modelling Results
    • Results are a first iteration
  • 20. Impact on economic indicators
  • 21. Impact on Employment
  • 22. Overall Impact
    • Overall macro-economic impacts for Portugal are negative (for the assumptions & bounds chosen!)
      • H2FCV not cost competitive
      • Higher investment and running cost for hydrogen vehicle
    • High level of hydrogen produced from renewables
      • Renewable strategy may lead to other benefits like reduction of pollutants and improvement of security of supply
    • Indicators (hydrogen production or fuel cell patents and demonstration projects) Portugal is not well-placed compared to leading countries in these areas
  • 23. Next steps
    • Results are a first iteration
    • Results differ from HyWays study for other European countries
    • Assumptions have to be revisited
      • Reliability has to be proved in an additional study
    • Closer examination of assumptions & bounds in HyWays & this project
  • 24. Remarks
    • It is not an event
    • Marks the beginning of a process
    • Portugal has gained some experience
    • Have a team and consortium with considerable capacity
      • Task is very demanding
      • Need for resources
      • Need to embrace policy makers
  • 25.
    • Actions
    • What do we need to do?
  • 26. ‘ 20-20-20’ target
    • European SET Plan :
    • Fuel cells - key technology for Europe for
      • 20% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions;
      • 20% share of renewable energy sources in the energy mix;
      • 20% reduction in primary energy use by 2020
    &quot;Energy for a Changing World – An Energy Policy for Europe”, the goals of its Lisbon Strategy and the European Council’s Conclusion on a European Energy Strategy for Transport, 29 May 2007
  • 27. Governance of the JTI TRANSPORTATION POWER GENERATION PORTABLE & MICRO POWER HYDROGEN PRODUCTION & DISTRIBUTION SMALL & MEDIUM ENTERPRISES CROSS CUTTING RESEARCH INSTITUTES EUROPEAN COMMISSION Public Bodies 50% voting Private Bodies (Industry Group) 50% voting The governing board is to represent all major stakeholders ‘ Joint Undertaking’ on the basis of Article 171 of the EC Treaty E E E E E R T G P H S C E R T G P H S C
  • 28. FCH JU F uel C ell & H ydrogen J oint U ndertaking
    • Governing Board
      • Executive Director
    • Three advisory bodies
      • Scientific Committee (max. 9)
        • academia, industry & regulatory bodies – cover complete technical domain needed to make strategic science-based recommendations regarding the FCH JU.
      • FCH States Representatives Group (SRG)
        • one from each MS & associated countries
      • Stakeholders' General Assembly
        • open to all
        • meets once a year
  • 29. EU Regions workshop in Turin
  • 30. KCAM conclusions
    • Final use main barrier to implementation of all H chains
      • need many trials & demonstrations to validate technology
    • Initially, decentralized production of hydrogen
      • eliminates barriers associated with transportation
      • avoids problems for renewable energy, such as availability & cost of connection to electricity grid
    • Carbon sequestration is in its infancy
      • high costs
      • technical & economic feasibility not yet evident
    • Central Government needs to take a leading role in the establishment of the Hydrogen Economy
  • 31. Actor Groups
  • 32. Medium-term Prospects
    • Portugal has a high potential for the production of hydrogen on the basis of renewables
    • Portuguese industry
      • Experience in the field of conventional car manufacturing
      • Possibility of successful export orientation in special technology fields
      • Some experience with the production of hydrogen
    • An adequate industry policy may offer the possibility to change the competitiveness situation of Portugal
  • 33. Action plan for PT
    • In order to encourage a sustainable hydrogen economy, the main actions should be developed around players with the capacity for action and influence in the national market of energy
    • Central Government should be encouraged to create a feed-in tariff that encourages and benefits the end use of hydrogen in its various applications
    • The establishment of a regulatory framework that benefits and creates conditions for the use of hydrogen will be a first step to start the expansion of hydrogen.
  • 34. Actions up to 2020
    • Promote H as energy vector where there is no need for dense hydrogen distribution networks;
      • Central Government
      • Energy Agencies
      • Industrial users
    • Create regulatory regime to encourage use of H -Central Govt.
      • energy agencies to take advantage of regulatory regime
    • Create incentives for:
      • automotive industry
      • R&D in Universities and Research Centers
    • Encourage partnerships between Universities & Research Centers & industry
      • R&D to meet industry needs
    No need dense hydrogen distribution network;
  • 35. Actions 2020 to 2030
    • Create Incentives (Central Govt.) for development of small scale end use applications
    • Develop transmission and distribution network for hydrogen
  • 36. Conclusions
    • Long term: Roadmap can be many things
      • Complex or simple
    • Short term: Get involved: FCH-JU
      • Research Grouping
      • State Representatives Group
    • Medium term: Exploit Portugal's Potential
      • Renewables
      • Create favourable conditions
        • Feed-in tarrif
        • regulatory framework
  • 37.
    • Thank You
    • for your attention
    • Rei Fernandes
    • [email_address]