17 Nov08 Rei Fernandes


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  • 17 Nov08 Rei Fernandes

    1. 1. Road Map for Portugal Rei Fernandes Research Group on Energy & Sustainable Development Instituto Superior Técnico
    2. 2. Overview <ul><li>Hydrogen Roadmaps </li></ul><ul><li>Methodology & Assumptions </li></ul><ul><li>Modelling, Results & Impacts </li></ul><ul><li>Action Plan </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Short Term </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Medium-Long Term </li></ul></ul>
    3. 3. The Hydrogen Economy <ul><li>HYDROGEN represents a promising way to a more sustainable energy system. However, R&D is still needed to cut costs, improve performance and evaluate advantages and obstacles to the introduction of hydrogen into transport and power generation markets. </li></ul><ul><li>Many regions of the world have developed, or are making efforts to prepare a hydrogen roadmap. </li></ul>
    4. 4. A Hydrogen Roadmap is: <ul><li>A JOINT ENDEAVOR of industry, government, academia and the public providing a structured process for a coordinated, long-term effort in preparing, introducing and implementing hydrogen into energy and transport systems. </li></ul><ul><li>AN IDENTIFICATION INSTRUMENT for the key technologies, products and markets, together with foreseeable obstacles to their development, introduction and use, and the possible measures to be overcome. </li></ul><ul><li>AN ASSESSMENT of expected impacts on the market, society and environment. </li></ul>
    5. 5. A Hydrogen Roadmap is: <ul><li>A NAVIGATION TOOL for strategic planning and implementation of research development, structural changes and infrastructural investment. </li></ul><ul><li>  </li></ul><ul><li>AN OPPORTUNITY FOR COMMUNICATION between all involved stakeholders of different backgrounds, viewpoints and interests. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Provides a national platform to encourage the development of a hydrogen economy </li></ul></ul><ul><li>A TECHNICAL, ECONOMIC AND STRATEGIC ANALYSIS leading to a master plan with a derived list of actions based on a combination of visions pathway scenarios and systems modeling. </li></ul>
    6. 6. Origins of PT Roadmap <ul><li>Origins of Portuguese hydrogen energy roadmap go back to 2003 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Group of interested parties led by SRE began negotiations with the Agency for Innovation for a proposal on new energy technologies that facilitate the growth of the hydrogen economy. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Government sponsor – not driver </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Actual Start – October 2006 </li></ul><ul><li>2003-2006 - Portuguese institutions became involved in a series of pan-European hydrogen related research projects. </li></ul>
    7. 7. HyWays Recommendations
    8. 8. Methodology <ul><li>Vision building through Stakeholder participation - HI-PO </li></ul><ul><li>SCENARIOS DEVELOPMENT </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Scenarios workshop </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Scenarios development </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Consultation with experts </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Final set of scenarios </li></ul></ul><ul><li>MULTI-CRITERIA ANALYSIS </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Definition of stakeholders' panel </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Multi-criteria mapping interviews </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Analysis of the interviews' results </li></ul></ul><ul><li>PATHWAYS & ROADMAP </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Pathways analysis and contribution for the definition of a hydrogen roadmap </li></ul></ul>
    9. 9. Assumptions <ul><li>Assumptions are very important </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Can change the results dramatically </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Main Assumptions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Fossil Fuel Price evolve over time (but high level of uncertainty) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Share of renewable energy in the Hydrogen Production </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Costs and cost evolution of the Hydrogen technologies (high level of uncertainty, lack of validated sources of information) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ban on nuclear </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>No “conventional” Coal Power Plants without carbon sequestration will be implemented from 2015 onwards </li></ul></ul>
    10. 10. Scenarios <ul><ul><li>Baseline scenario of business as usual </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>High penetration rate </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Moderate penetration rate </li></ul></ul>These scenarios have a mandatory target for hydrogen technologies for the transport, residential and commercial sectors at two different penetration rates
    11. 11. Penetration Rates Transport Stationary 40.0% 22.6% 7.6% 0.7% Moderate penetration 74.5% 54.4% 23.7% 3.3% High penetration 2050 2040 2030 2020 Scenario / Point in Time 1.7% 5% 0.7% 2% 0.2% 0.5% >0% 0.1% Moderate penetration 3.3% 10% 2.7% 8% 1.3% 4% 0.3% 1% High penetration Com Res Com Res Com Res Com Res 2050 2040 2030 2020 Scenario
    12. 12. Bounds Minimum share of renewable energy in hydrogen production T echnology-specific bounds for hydrogen production 40% 33.3% 26.7% 20% 2050 2040 2030 2020 <30% <20% <15% Solar thermochemical cycles <10% <15% <20% <20% Centralised production with CCS (coal and natural gas) >7.5% >5% >5% >2.5% Wave >20% >20% >10% >7.5% Wind 5-10% 5-15% 5-15% >5% Biomass 2050 2040 2030 2020 Technology/fuel
    13. 13. Models used <ul><li>TIMES – dynamic cost optimisation model to determine the lowest cost technology solutions to satisfy both the demand and any set of restrictions. It targets technological, environmental and economic impacts . </li></ul><ul><li>Copert – model for calculating pollutant emissions such as (CO2, CO, NOx. SOx) from the transport sector. It targets environmental impacts. </li></ul><ul><li>ISIS – input-output model for calculating the social impacts of the introduction of hydrogen. </li></ul><ul><li>Infrastructure analysis – semi-quantitative process of determining geographical distribution of hydrogen technologies over time. </li></ul><ul><li>KCAM – fully qualitative systematic process for collecting the views of the stakeholders. Identification of key changes needed for a successful hydrogen introduction in the Portuguese energy system. </li></ul>
    14. 14. Modelling Schematic representation of the modelling process (Adapted from HyWays) Schematic representation of the TIMES modelling process
    15. 15. Total Hydrogen Production <ul><li>Mainly for transport sector </li></ul><ul><li>Transport by truck, 90% as compressed hydrogen </li></ul>
    16. 16. Hydrogen Production Mix
    17. 17. CO2 & GHG Emissions: Commercial Supply Sector Transport Total GHG emissions
    18. 18. CO2 emissions: & driving cycle According to vehicle type According to driving cycle
    19. 19. Astra Modelling Results <ul><li>Results are a first iteration </li></ul>
    20. 20. Impact on economic indicators
    21. 21. Impact on Employment
    22. 22. Overall Impact <ul><li>Overall macro-economic impacts for Portugal are negative (for the assumptions & bounds chosen!) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>H2FCV not cost competitive </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Higher investment and running cost for hydrogen vehicle </li></ul></ul><ul><li>High level of hydrogen produced from renewables </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Renewable strategy may lead to other benefits like reduction of pollutants and improvement of security of supply </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Indicators (hydrogen production or fuel cell patents and demonstration projects) Portugal is not well-placed compared to leading countries in these areas </li></ul>
    23. 23. Next steps <ul><li>Results are a first iteration </li></ul><ul><li>Results differ from HyWays study for other European countries </li></ul><ul><li>Assumptions have to be revisited </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Reliability has to be proved in an additional study </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Closer examination of assumptions & bounds in HyWays & this project </li></ul>
    24. 24. Remarks <ul><li>It is not an event </li></ul><ul><li>Marks the beginning of a process </li></ul><ul><li>Portugal has gained some experience </li></ul><ul><li>Have a team and consortium with considerable capacity </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Task is very demanding </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Need for resources </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Need to embrace policy makers </li></ul></ul>
    25. 25. <ul><li>Actions </li></ul><ul><li>What do we need to do? </li></ul>
    26. 26. ‘ 20-20-20’ target <ul><li>European SET Plan : </li></ul><ul><li>Fuel cells - key technology for Europe for </li></ul><ul><ul><li>20% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>20% share of renewable energy sources in the energy mix; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>20% reduction in primary energy use by 2020 </li></ul></ul>&quot;Energy for a Changing World – An Energy Policy for Europe”, the goals of its Lisbon Strategy and the European Council’s Conclusion on a European Energy Strategy for Transport, 29 May 2007
    27. 27. Governance of the JTI TRANSPORTATION POWER GENERATION PORTABLE & MICRO POWER HYDROGEN PRODUCTION & DISTRIBUTION SMALL & MEDIUM ENTERPRISES CROSS CUTTING RESEARCH INSTITUTES EUROPEAN COMMISSION Public Bodies 50% voting Private Bodies (Industry Group) 50% voting The governing board is to represent all major stakeholders ‘ Joint Undertaking’ on the basis of Article 171 of the EC Treaty E E E E E R T G P H S C E R T G P H S C
    28. 28. FCH JU F uel C ell & H ydrogen J oint U ndertaking <ul><li>Governing Board </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Executive Director </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Three advisory bodies </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Scientific Committee (max. 9) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>academia, industry & regulatory bodies – cover complete technical domain needed to make strategic science-based recommendations regarding the FCH JU. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>FCH States Representatives Group (SRG) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>one from each MS & associated countries </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Stakeholders' General Assembly </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>open to all </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>meets once a year </li></ul></ul></ul>
    29. 29. EU Regions workshop in Turin
    30. 30. KCAM conclusions <ul><li>Final use main barrier to implementation of all H chains </li></ul><ul><ul><li>need many trials & demonstrations to validate technology </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Initially, decentralized production of hydrogen </li></ul><ul><ul><li>eliminates barriers associated with transportation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>avoids problems for renewable energy, such as availability & cost of connection to electricity grid </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Carbon sequestration is in its infancy </li></ul><ul><ul><li>high costs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>technical & economic feasibility not yet evident </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Central Government needs to take a leading role in the establishment of the Hydrogen Economy </li></ul>
    31. 31. Actor Groups
    32. 32. Medium-term Prospects <ul><li>Portugal has a high potential for the production of hydrogen on the basis of renewables </li></ul><ul><li>Portuguese industry </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Experience in the field of conventional car manufacturing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Possibility of successful export orientation in special technology fields </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Some experience with the production of hydrogen </li></ul></ul><ul><li>An adequate industry policy may offer the possibility to change the competitiveness situation of Portugal </li></ul>
    33. 33. Action plan for PT <ul><li>In order to encourage a sustainable hydrogen economy, the main actions should be developed around players with the capacity for action and influence in the national market of energy </li></ul><ul><li>Central Government should be encouraged to create a feed-in tariff that encourages and benefits the end use of hydrogen in its various applications </li></ul><ul><li>The establishment of a regulatory framework that benefits and creates conditions for the use of hydrogen will be a first step to start the expansion of hydrogen. </li></ul>
    34. 34. Actions up to 2020 <ul><li>Promote H as energy vector where there is no need for dense hydrogen distribution networks; </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Central Government </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Energy Agencies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Industrial users </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Create regulatory regime to encourage use of H -Central Govt. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>energy agencies to take advantage of regulatory regime </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Create incentives for: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>automotive industry </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>R&D in Universities and Research Centers </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Encourage partnerships between Universities & Research Centers & industry </li></ul><ul><ul><li>R&D to meet industry needs </li></ul></ul>No need dense hydrogen distribution network;
    35. 35. Actions 2020 to 2030 <ul><li>Create Incentives (Central Govt.) for development of small scale end use applications </li></ul><ul><li>Develop transmission and distribution network for hydrogen </li></ul>
    36. 36. Conclusions <ul><li>Long term: Roadmap can be many things </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Complex or simple </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Short term: Get involved: FCH-JU </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Research Grouping </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>State Representatives Group </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Medium term: Exploit Portugal's Potential </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Renewables </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Create favourable conditions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Feed-in tarrif </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>regulatory framework </li></ul></ul></ul>
    37. 37. <ul><li>Thank You </li></ul><ul><li>for your attention </li></ul><ul><li>Rei Fernandes </li></ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul>