The document outlines the methodology for a project analyzing the introduction of hydrogen technologies. It involves a 4-stage process: 1) developing scenarios, 2) impact analysis using models for economic, social and environmental effects, 3) transition analysis of challenges and opportunities, and 4) synthesizing results and creating an action plan. The impact analysis will use TIMES, ISIS and COPERT models. Transition analysis includes a qualitative KCAM method and infrastructure planning. The timeline shows workshops and tasks through 2008 to complete the project.

1. PPS6 EDEN
Revised project description
and methodology
Rei Fernandes
First Workshop PPS6 EDEN, Porto, 28 March 2007

2. Methodology overview
• 4 stage process:
1. End vision development from scenarios
2. Impact analysis
3. Transition analysis
4. Synthesis and action plan development
Impact analysis
Synthesis and
End vision
action plan
development
Transition analysis
First Workshop PPS6 EDEN, Porto, 28 March 2007

3. Overview of Tasks Table
Phase Activity % Total Time Responsible
Portugal Vision and Scenario 5 IST
Development
5 INEGI
Impact Analysis Method
Economic E3 database 5 IST
F1
TIMES 20
Social ISIS 10 IST
(subcontract)
Environmental COPERT 10 INETI
Transition Method
Analysis of
KCAM 10 SRE
Potential
Challenges &
F2 Infrastructure 15 INEGI
Opportunities
EDP
Niche Markets 5 SRE
Roadmap Synthesis 5 All
F3
Action Plan 10 All
First Workshop PPS6 EDEN, Porto, 28 March 2007

4. Current Progress
• Kick-off meeting complete, 10th January
• Final Products Descriptions gathered from PPS6
Partners
• Full and detailed PPS6 EDEN Project
Description completed with detailed roles,
objectives, timings, & deliverables
• First Workshop today!
First Workshop PPS6 EDEN, Porto, 28 March 2007

5. PPS6 Project Description
in Summary
• Four workshops/ meetings:
– First workshop, end March 2007, INEGI in Porto
– Second workshop, end Sept 2007, EDP? in Lisbon
– Work level meeting, start Feb 2008, at IST in Lisbon
– Final Dissemination meeting, End May 2008, in Lisbon
First Workshop PPS6 EDEN, Porto, 28 March 2007

6. Impact analysis
• Use computer models to analyse the
impact of hydrogen introduction under the
four scenarios in three areas:
– Economic (E3, TIMES)
– Social (ISIS)
– Environmental (COPERT)
First Workshop PPS6 EDEN, Porto, 28 March 2007

7. TIMES
• MARKAL, short for MARKet ALIocation – new name TIMES
• computer-driven, dynamic optimization model
• Integrates energy, environmental, and economic factors.
• Identifies costs and benefits of alternative energy scenarios for the
future.
• Estimates the relative merits of specific technologies that can be
applied in an energy system.
• Widespread international acceptance, with more than 40 countries
using it to analyze a broad range of issues in energy planning and
environmental policy formulation.
• Provides energy system solutions to support national planning and
policy decisions.
First Workshop PPS6 EDEN, Porto, 28 March 2007

8. TIMES
• Times is an economic model generator for local, national
or multi regional energy systems.
• computer-driven, dynamic optimization model.
• Integrates energy, environmental, economic factors
and takes policy into account.
• Aims to supply energy services at a minimum global
cost.
• Estimates the relative merits of specific technologies that
can be applied in an energy system.
• Provides energy system solutions to support national
planning and policy decisions.
First Workshop PPS6 EDEN, Porto, 28 March 2007

9. TIMES II
What Inputs does it needs?
• End-use Energy service demands
• Existing stock of energy related in equipment in all sectors
• Characteristics of available future technologies
• Present and future sources of primary energy supply and their
potentials
• In addition Policy constraints can be added for the model to take into
account
– e.g. “GHG emissions have to be reduce in x% by 2020 when
compared to 1990 values”
– e.g. “10% Hydrogen demand in all sectors using x,y,z technologies”
First Workshop PPS6 EDEN, Porto, 28 March 2007

10. TIMES III
What outputs are expected from TIMES?
• Energy system optimisation in several sectors
• Enable comparisons (economic and environmental) between the
EDEN scenarios and the Baseline scenario.
First Workshop PPS6 EDEN, Porto, 28 March 2007

11. ISIS
• Provides, for a given hydrogen scenario:
– The influence on industrial structure
– The impact on “quantitative” employment effects
• Meso level (covers all sectors of an economy)
First Workshop PPS6 EDEN, Porto, 28 March 2007

12. COPERT
• Analyse road transport emissions
• CO, NOx, VOC, CH4, CO2, N2O, SOx and others
• Dependent on vehicle fleet size and
composition – relate to TIMES results and
other models (TREMOVE)
First Workshop PPS6 EDEN, Porto, 28 March 2007

13. Copert III Methodology
1. Input data:
1. Car fleet for a specific year 2. Calculations (example):
- number of vehicles per category
hot emission of pollutant i of vehicle class j per
(passengers, light duty cars, heavy duty
road type k:
cars, buses, mopeds, motorcycles)
Ehot;i,j,k = Nj x Mj,k x ehot,i,j,k
and classes (related with engine capacity
and vehicle age)
Nj = number of vehicles of class j
- annual mileage of vehicle class
Mj,k = mileage driven on road type k per vehicle
class j
2. Circulation Information:
ehot,i,j,k = emission factor (g/Km) of pollutant i for
- speed per road type
vehicle class j operating in road type k
- driving share for road type and vehicle
class 3. Results (for a specific year)
(road type: urban, rural, highway)
1. Total emission of pollutant (i)
2. Emission of pollutant (i) per:
3. Other Data
- evaporation data a) vehicle category or class
- climatic conditions b) road type
- cold start parameters
First Workshop PPS6 EDEN, Porto,of emission: (hot, cold and evaporation)
c) type 28 March 2007

14. Transition analysis
• In parallel to the quantitative models
• Qualitative impact analysis of the hydrogen chains
to identify main challenges – KCAM
• Identification of niche and market opportunities for
Portuguese industry
• Infrastructure analysis – plan the geographical
introduction of hydrogen technologies and
infrastructure
First Workshop PPS6 EDEN, Porto, 28 March 2007

15. KCAM
Key Changes and Actor Mapping
• A systematic method to gather and present
qualitative data on hydrogen systems
development
• Via stakeholder consultation
• Highlights major challenges (Key Changes) and
actor groups associated with introducing a
hydrogen chain
First Workshop PPS6 EDEN, Porto, 28 March 2007

16. Infrastructure Analysis
• Verify development scenarios on a regional basis
• Approved scenario of regional infrastructure build-up
• Provide inputs to and interaction with other tasks
• Assess investment costs over time
• Input from stakeholders required
• Results:
– Transport distances
– Graphic presentation of regional infrastructure build-up
– Identification of potential cross-border hydrogen flows
– Cash flow for infrastructure build-up
First Workshop PPS6 EDEN, Porto, 28 March 2007

17. Synthesis and action
plan development
• Collect all results from Impact analysis and
Transition analysis
• Determine the main messages
• Present them in a suitable format for use
in a coordinated public information
campaign
First Workshop PPS6 EDEN, Porto, 28 March 2007

18. Timeline
2006 2007 2008
Actividade Tarefa
J F MASONDJ F MAMJ J ASONDJ F MAMJ J ASOND
End vision
F0
Scenario development
Impact analysis
Economic
F1
Social
Environmental
Transition analysis
Qualitative assessment
F2
Infrastructure analysis
Niche and market opportunities
Synthesis and action plan
F3
Create action plan
TOTAL DO PPS6 PPS6
First Workshop PPS6 EDEN, Porto, 28 March 2007

19. Discussion
First Workshop PPS6 EDEN, Porto, 28 March 2007