Minh Le - GW Solar Symposium 2012

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Minh Le - GW Solar Symposium 2012

  1. 1. 1 Revitalizing American Competitiveness in SolarTechnologies
  2. 2. So what is the SunShot Initiative? 2 SunShot InitiativeSunShot Initiative 5 - 6¢/kwh without subsidy A 75% cost reduction by the end of the decade Price
  3. 3. 3 SunShot $1/W Target $1/W InstalledSystemsPrice($/W) $3.80/W Power Electronics Balance of Systems (BOS) PV Module Estimates made in 2010 for Utility Scale PV plants
  4. 4. 4 U.S. Solar Installations • U.S. PV installations have grown dramatically in the past few years and are expected to continue to grow • Currently ahead of SunShotVision Study projections 4 Note: P = projection. PV assumes an 85% DC to AC conversion Sources: 2006 – 2010: Department of Energy “2010 Solar Technologies Market Report”. 2011: GTM/SEIA : “U.S. Solar Market Insight Q4 2011 & 2011 Year-in-Review”. 2012: median of Barclays (03/19/12), BNEF (02/06/12), Citibank (02/22/12), Cowen (03/20/12) EPIA (Market Outlook 2011, Global Market Outlook until 2015), Goldman Sachs (02/29/12), Navigant Consulting (01/26/12) Photon Consulting (Solar Annual 2012), Stifel Nicolaus (01/25/12), UBS (01/20/12). 2016- 2020: DOE “SunShot Vision Study”, February, 2012. EIA Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2012 Early Release, January 2012. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012P 2013P 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P 2019P 2020P CumulativeU.S.Installations(GWAC) Cum. CSP (SunShot Vision Study) Cum. PV (SunShot Vision Study) Cum. PV & CSP (EIA AEO 2012) Cum. PV (EIA AEO 2012) Cum. U.S. PV & CSP (Reported) Cum. U.S. PV (Reported)
  5. 5. US PV Cell and Module Production Sources: Navigant Consulting, Solar Services Program – 2011 Shipment Update, NPS-Supply6 - April 2011, Report NPS-Supply4, Report NPS-Supply3.
  6. 6. 6 Manufacturing “Abandoning today's ‘commodity’ manufacturing can lock you out of tomorrow's emerging industry.” - Andy Grove, co-founder, former CEO, Intel
  7. 7. 7 To compete in the clean energy race, we have to do more than invent technologies, we have to make them, sell them, and use them too. Secretary of Energy Steven Chu
  8. 8. 8 Incubator Supports Startups 8
  9. 9. 9 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Multiple Incubator Rounds 9 Round 5 PV Incubator Round 4 PV Incubator Round 3 PV/Pre-Incubator Round 2 PV Incubator Round 1 PV Incubator Round 6 SunShot Incubator Soft Cost Round 7 SunShot Incubator
  10. 10. 10 Incubator Startups 10 Caelux Renewable Power Conversion
  11. 11. 11 SUNPATH Contract Duration 2 years Max Contract Award ($) $25M, 75% cost-share Maximum Cost to DOE ($) $50M Objective Domestic industrial scale manufacturing demonstration of a PV technology : • 15% lower in cost per watt when compared to the industry leader • progressing significantly towards the SunShot goal of $0.50/W modules • >25 year lifetime and sufficiently high efficiency for low Balance of Systems costs. Replication and expansion of commercial manufacturing of products and technologies in the US. SUNPATH goals and the SunShot portfolio SUNPATH
  12. 12. ~$6.50 ~$5.50 ~$4.00 $0 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 Residential Commercial Utility PVSystemPrice/WDC 2010 PV System Prices BOS-non-hardware BOS-hardware Power electronics Module 12 “Even if you paid nothing for the hardware, you'd still pay thousands of dollars to install a residential solar power system” - Secretary Chu Non Hardware costs: • Customer Acquisition • Financing and Contracting • Permitting, Inspection, and Interconnection • Installation and Performance The Issue:
  13. 13.  Complicated and confusing process  Process is different for every local  Unnecessarily high permit fees  In-person application submission and inspection  Long wait times for inspection and approval But Why so Pricey? 13
  14. 14. More Paperwork = Higher Cost
  15. 15. One Hypothetical City’s Process… 15
  16. 16. Pre-Application Install Complies with Zoning Rules Apply to Commission A Receive Commission A Approval Special Building Type? Yes
  17. 17. UtilityTrack
  18. 18. Utility-Application Solar to be utility connected? Apply Electronically for Interconnection Apply via mail for Interconnection Utility Report Auto-Generated Person Creates Utility Report Report Sent to Appropriate Area > 30 kW? Contract Type 1 Authorization Letter Equipment Spec Sheets 3-Line Diagram Application Type 2 Application Fee Application Type 3 No Yes Yes Yes Yes
  19. 19. Check Utility Report Approve Initial Design within 10 Days Engineer Review
  20. 20. Order Meter Time of Use Metering? Special Order Meter Utility-Installation Yes No
  21. 21. From the Start: Buildings OfficeTrack Install Complies with Zoning Rules Apply to Commission A Receive Commission A Approval Special Building Type? Yes
  22. 22. Electronic Filing? BuildingsOffice-Application Print Forms A & B for Signatures Complete All Paper Forms Complete Form A, Architect/Engineer Signs Complete Form A1 Complete Form A2 Application Certified? Application Review Requesting Fire Code Exemption? Yes No Yes Yes No No
  23. 23. More than aYear Later, You’re Finally Ready for Solar
  24. 24. And Permitting is Different Everywhere 25
  25. 25. Germany’s Success 26 Sign contract with installer Register PV system with state energy agency for FIT (1 page, submitted online in 15 mins.) As long as housing structure is built to code, no permits filed for residential PV in Germany
  26. 26. Rooftop Solar Challenge CA NJ = CA WI La Mirada, CA Oceanside, CA ≠ ≠ Uniform processes The Problem • 18,000+ local jurisdictions with different PV permitting requirements • 5,000+ utilities implementing interconnection standards and net metering programs • 50 states developing interconnection standards and net metering rules The Solution The Challenge invests in 22 teams comprised of jurisdictions, utilities, and local stakeholders to develop the same requirements and processes across large geographic areas (500,000+ population). The Challenge also measures each team’s progress to identify approaches that work.
  27. 27. $2/W SunShot Residential Prize RFI 28 Residential PV in Germany costs ~$2.50/W Residential PV in the US costs ~$6/W
  28. 28. Thank You Minh Le Chief Engineer, Acting Deputy Program Manager SunShot Initiative

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