Concentrating Photovoltaics 2011: <br />Technology, Costs and Markets<br />May 26, 2011<br />Speaker:<br />Brett Prior<br ...
Webinar Logistics<br />Please enter your questions at any point during the presentation<br />Make sure your volume is turn...
http://www.gtmresearch.com/report/concentrating-photovoltaics-2011<br />Report highlights<br />Over 260 pages<br />Over 90...
LCPV 2x-8x<br />MCPV<br />10x-150x<br />HCPV<br />200x+<br />Flat plate<br />
HCPV Technology<br />Small Dish<br />Lens<br />
HCPV: Large Panel Systems<br />
HCPV: Dish and Heliostat/Tower Systems<br />EdTek<br />Greenfield Solar<br />Zenith Solar<br />Solar Systems<br />Solar Sy...
HCPV: Small Panel & Other Systems<br />
HCPV: Rooftop and Flat Panel Systems<br />
MCPV<br />
LCPV<br />
CPV Project Pipeline<br />
The 689 MW of CPV in the pipeline sounds impressiveBut compared with the 33,000 MW of installed non-concentrating PV – it ...
Global CPV Ecosystem<br />Total worldwide CPV projects in operation/under construction/development (w/ PPA/FIT): 483 MW-ac...
US: 456 MW<br />32 MW <br />1%<br />7%<br />Spain: 18 MW<br />115 MW <br />25%<br />306 MW <br />12 MW<br />69%<br />67%<b...
US Market Potential<br />
In order for US utilities in the Southwest to meet their RPS targets, over 45,000 MW of new solar plants (or other renewab...
The US Market for utility-scale solar looks promising.<br />But CPV companies don’t develop their own projects. <br />So, ...
The US Utility Solar Market can be broken down by technology<br />
The US Utility Solar Market can be broken down by developer type<br />Vertically Integrated Manufacturers (i.e. First Sola...
For CPV to succeed globally, it first needs to penetrate the US Market<br />For CPV manufacturers, the Independent Power P...
The second target customer segment is the Pure-Play Solar Developers<br />Although they are generally cash-poor, and won’t...
How does CPV compare on key metrics?<br />or<br />What could possibly compel developers to select CPV over other solar opt...
CPV compares favorablyvs. other solar options on most metrics <br />
Key Metric #1: LCOE<br />Module efficiency is a key driver of balance of systems costs, and therefore a key driver of LCOE...
Key Metric #1: LCOE<br />While installed cost should never be used to compare options, it is the primary driver of LCOE<br...
Key Metric #1: LCOE<br />If our costs projections are right, there very likely won’t be a red line in 2015<br />Report con...
By location (DNI)
By year</li></li></ul><li>Key Metric #2: Bankability<br />“Apart from that Mrs. Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?”<br />
Key Metric #5: Capacity Factor <br />The secret sauce that allows CPV to cost less per kWh, even though it costs more per ...
Key Metric #7: Land Usage<br />Seems like it would be important.  It’s not.<br />
CPV Forecast<br />
CPV expected to grow to 1,000+ MW of new installations in 2015<br />But by 2015 that will represent less than 4% share of ...
GTM forecasts CPV to be “concentrated” in the US, Australia, and India<br />Full Report contains detailed CPV forecasts th...
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GTM Research CPV Webinar

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Key findings &amp; analysis from a report I co-authored on Concentrating PV (CPV)

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GTM Research CPV Webinar

  1. 1. Concentrating Photovoltaics 2011: <br />Technology, Costs and Markets<br />May 26, 2011<br />Speaker:<br />Brett Prior<br />GTM Research<br />Moderator:<br />Scott Clavenna<br />GTM Research<br />
  2. 2. Webinar Logistics<br />Please enter your questions at any point during the presentation<br />Make sure your volume is turned up<br />Slides are available for download. You can also enlarge through buttons below<br />Webinar will be archived and available within 24 hours, you will receive an email when it is available<br />
  3. 3. http://www.gtmresearch.com/report/concentrating-photovoltaics-2011<br />Report highlights<br />Over 260 pages<br />Over 90 graphs, tables, and illustrations<br /> Global demand forecasts by country<br /> Analysis of key metrics affecting levelized cost of electricity (LCOE)<br />Capacity Factor<br />Land Usage<br />Module cost per watt<br />Tracking system cost<br />Balance of system costs<br />O&M costs<br />In-depth profiles for 70 leading CPV system manufacturers and cell suppliers<br />List of all 170+ CPV projects in operation or under development worldwide<br />
  4. 4. LCPV 2x-8x<br />MCPV<br />10x-150x<br />HCPV<br />200x+<br />Flat plate<br />
  5. 5. HCPV Technology<br />Small Dish<br />Lens<br />
  6. 6. HCPV: Large Panel Systems<br />
  7. 7. HCPV: Dish and Heliostat/Tower Systems<br />EdTek<br />Greenfield Solar<br />Zenith Solar<br />Solar Systems<br />Solar Systems<br />Abengoa<br />
  8. 8. HCPV: Small Panel & Other Systems<br />
  9. 9. HCPV: Rooftop and Flat Panel Systems<br />
  10. 10. MCPV<br />
  11. 11. LCPV<br />
  12. 12. CPV Project Pipeline<br />
  13. 13. The 689 MW of CPV in the pipeline sounds impressiveBut compared with the 33,000 MW of installed non-concentrating PV – it seems tiny<br />
  14. 14. Global CPV Ecosystem<br />Total worldwide CPV projects in operation/under construction/development (w/ PPA/FIT): 483 MW-ac<br />Size of company logo proportional to total MW in operation/development<br />306<br />127<br />37<br />13<br />All Other System Manufacturers<br />
  15. 15. US: 456 MW<br />32 MW <br />1%<br />7%<br />Spain: 18 MW<br />115 MW <br />25%<br />306 MW <br />12 MW<br />69%<br />67%<br />CPV Plants In Operation / Under Construction / Development (with PPA/FIT) <br />(483 MW-ac Total)<br />Greece: 2 MW<br />Portugal: 5 MW<br />Australia: 3 MW<br /> Other System Manufacturers<br />Map created by Brett Prior, GTM Research. Last updated 5/11. Please send updates to prior@gtmresearch.com<br />
  16. 16. US Market Potential<br />
  17. 17. In order for US utilities in the Southwest to meet their RPS targets, over 45,000 MW of new solar plants (or other renewables) will be required by 2020<br />
  18. 18. The US Market for utility-scale solar looks promising.<br />But CPV companies don’t develop their own projects. <br />So, who are the key “gate-keepers” that need to be won over for CPV to succeed?<br />
  19. 19. The US Utility Solar Market can be broken down by technology<br />
  20. 20. The US Utility Solar Market can be broken down by developer type<br />Vertically Integrated Manufacturers (i.e. First Solar, BrightSource) seem unlikely to select CPV systems for their projects<br />
  21. 21. For CPV to succeed globally, it first needs to penetrate the US Market<br />For CPV manufacturers, the Independent Power Producers (IPPs) are akin to Normandy on D-Day<br />Full report contains Top 10 IPPs<br />
  22. 22. The second target customer segment is the Pure-Play Solar Developers<br />Although they are generally cash-poor, and won’t be able to move forward unless the CPV manufacturers bring financing along<br />Full report contains Top 10 Pure-Play Solar Developers<br />
  23. 23. How does CPV compare on key metrics?<br />or<br />What could possibly compel developers to select CPV over other solar options?<br />
  24. 24. CPV compares favorablyvs. other solar options on most metrics <br />
  25. 25. Key Metric #1: LCOE<br />Module efficiency is a key driver of balance of systems costs, and therefore a key driver of LCOE<br />CPV has real room for improvement. Flat plate PV – looking a bit flat. <br />
  26. 26. Key Metric #1: LCOE<br />While installed cost should never be used to compare options, it is the primary driver of LCOE<br />Report also contains cost per watt forecast by technology through 2015<br />
  27. 27. Key Metric #1: LCOE<br />If our costs projections are right, there very likely won’t be a red line in 2015<br />Report contains detailed LCOE comparisons<br /><ul><li>By solar technology
  28. 28. By location (DNI)
  29. 29. By year</li></li></ul><li>Key Metric #2: Bankability<br />“Apart from that Mrs. Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?”<br />
  30. 30. Key Metric #5: Capacity Factor <br />The secret sauce that allows CPV to cost less per kWh, even though it costs more per watt<br />
  31. 31. Key Metric #7: Land Usage<br />Seems like it would be important. It’s not.<br />
  32. 32. CPV Forecast<br />
  33. 33. CPV expected to grow to 1,000+ MW of new installations in 2015<br />But by 2015 that will represent less than 4% share of the total solar market<br />
  34. 34. GTM forecasts CPV to be “concentrated” in the US, Australia, and India<br />Full Report contains detailed CPV forecasts through 2015<br /><ul><li>by country
  35. 35. by year</li></li></ul><li>Q&A<br />Brett Prior, CFA<br />Senior Analyst<br />GTM Research<br />prior@gtmresearch.com<br />

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