1. Recent Peruvian Glacier Changes:
An update & why it matters to humans
Bryan Mark
15 February 2012

2. http://bprc.osu.edu/glacierchange
• Nathan Stansell (Res Assoc)
• Jeff McKenzie (McGill) • Sarah Fortner (Postdoc) • Laura Lautz (Syracuse)
• Jeffrey Bury (UCSC) • Kyung In Huh (PhD) • Ryan Gordon
• Scott Reinemann (PhD) • Patrick Burns
• Ken Young (UT Austin)
• Jeff LaFrenierre (PhD) • Joel Harper (MT)
• Mark Carey (U Oregon)
• Alfonso Fernandez (PhD) • Toby Meierbachtol
• Donald Rodbell (Union College)
• Oliver Wigmore (PhD) • Adam Clark
• Zicheng Yu (Lehigh)
• Michel Baraer (PhD) • Ing. Ricardo J. Gomez
• Christopher Hopkinson (NSCC) • Adam French (PhD) • Ing. Cesar Portocarrero
• Lonnie & Ellen Thompson (BPRC) • Alex Eddy (MA) • Unidad de Glaciologia y
Recursos Hidricos
• D. Slayback, K. Yager (NASA) • Nate Patrick (MS)

3. Science is relational
Alcides Ames
(1942-2007)

4. http://bprc.osu.edu/glacierchange

5. Outline
• Perspective on glacier recession
• Update on glacier volume loss and river flow
• Human vulnerability to glacier recession and
climate change in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru
• Water resources and coupled systems

6. Glacier thinning since 1970 (m/yr)
Adapted from Dyurgerov and Meier (2005)

7. Data from World Glacier Monitoring Service (http://www.globalwarmingart.com/)

8. Tropical
Andean
Glaciers
71% in Peru
22% in Bolivia
4% in Ecuador
3% in Colombia
~1% Venezuela
Source-J. Bury
UC-Santa Cruz
NASA Worldwind

10. Observed Andean temperature change
•0.10ûC/decade
•overall +0.68°C since 1939
•last 20 years: only 2 (1996 and
1999) below the long term
(1961-90) average
Vuille et al. 2008, Ear Sci Rev 89, 79-96.

12. Cordillera Blanca
Source-J. Bury Since 1970, ~25% of
UC-Santa Cruz
NASA Worldwind
glaciers have melted
~20 million people (70%
of country) depend on
glaciers
~267,000 people live in
Callejon de Huaylas

13. Cordillera Blanca
Huascarán
La Balsa
Most glacierized tropical range
Highly seasonal precipitation,
Rapid glacier loss & rising (competing?) water
demand
Huaraz 17.0 120
16.5
Precipitation (mm)
100
Temperature (C)
16.0
80
15.5
15.0 60
14.5
40
14.0
20
13.5
13.0 0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

14. Wet season Dry season
Tropical
glaciers: climate &
hydrological response
annual discharge, dry season discharge & flow variability
400
350
La Balsa 1954-2008 daily discharge
300
Discharge (m3/s)
250
200
150
100
50
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Month
Credit: M. Baraer

15. Methods: “high” and “low” tech observations
1. How much ice loss?
2. What impact to local
hydrology?
3. What social perception,
vulnerability, adaptation?

16. Time for Space
Vulnerability Case-Studies
• Llanganuco-25% glacier area (est 2010)
– Sample-52 households
• 2.3% of population
• Quilcayhuanca-17% glacier area
– Sample-32 households
• 10.3% of population
• Querococha-2% glacier area (est 2010)
– Sample-40 households
• 5.5% of population

18. Surface area & volume
changes from multi-
sensors (1962-2008)

19. Surface area change
Data Source Year Area(km2)
Aerial photo 1962 1.155
ASTER 2001 0.671
ASTER 2002 0.547
ASTER 2004 0.474
ASTER 2005 0.347
ASTER 2007 0.259
ASTER 2008 0.165
1.2
1
Area m2 x 106
0.8
85.7% Surface Area Loss (1962-2008)
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year

20. Photo DEM :
Volume change Ave. 12.67m (±22) lower than
LiDAR DEM
Data Source Year diff dV (km3)
Aerial photo- 1962-2008L 0.233
LiDAR
• Mean surface
lowering : 54m
• Maximum
lowering :
128m
Hypsometry

21. Volume vs. Surface area
#1
Volume (V) of
#2
#3
valley glaciers is
#4 proportion to the
surface area (S)
Empirical function
relating changes in
V to S (Chen and
Ohmura, 1990)
UNDERESTIMATE
measurements
0.357
V=38.716S S

22. What is the
glacier meltwater
impact
downstream?
A question of scale 1. Glacier watersheds
2. Downstream confluence
Callejon de Huaylas: populated Rio Santa
watershed
3. Tributaries of Rio Santa

23. Rio Santa at hydro power plant:
• Significant decreasing trend

24. 400
350
La Balsa 1954-2008 daily discharge
300
Key concerns
Discharge (m3/s)
250
200
150
100
50
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Month
Moore et al., 2009
• What stream flow trends can be discerned in the
wake of sustained glacier retreat (fraction of ice
cover loss)?
– Peak water
• What is the actual status of regional water
availability?

25. Glacier coverage by
tributary watershed
annual fraction of ice loss,
The La Balsa watershed,
has an average of 0.61 %
area loss per year.
The average values for
the period of 1990-2009
was double that for the
period of 1930-2009