0   2   6   12   16 months
5040302010 0 1860   70   80   90   1900   10   20   30   40   50   60   70   80   90   2000   10
Mauritania          Niger             Mali                            Sudan                                    solitarious...
frontlinesecondaryinvasion            www.fao.org/ag/locusts
Africa is warmer than100 years ago                                                        +4˚C2-4˚C increase by 2050s     ...
Habitat  the Sahara is in retreat in the past 15 years (satellite imagery)Predictions  rainfall under climate change scena...
Ice Age                   Holocene                                                        Present   (cold, dry)           ...
LL   H       H                IPCC AR4
0˚
Keith CressmanSenior Locust Forecasting OfficerRome, Italykeith.cressman@fao.orgwww.fao.org/ag/locusts
Desert Locust
Desert Locust
Desert Locust
Desert Locust
Desert Locust
Desert Locust
Desert Locust
Desert Locust
Desert Locust
Desert Locust
Desert Locust
Desert Locust
Desert Locust
Desert Locust
Desert Locust
Desert Locust
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Desert Locust

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A presentation made by Keith Cressman, FAO Senior Locust Forecasting Officer, at the WMO/FAO International Conference of Adaptation to Climate Change and Food Security in West Asia and North Africa (Kuwait City, 13-16 Nov 2011). The presentation gives an overview of Desert Locust population dynamics, climatological effects and adaptation strategies.

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Desert Locust

  1. 1. 0 2 6 12 16 months
  2. 2. 5040302010 0 1860 70 80 90 1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 10
  3. 3. Mauritania Niger Mali Sudan solitarious gregarious
  4. 4. frontlinesecondaryinvasion www.fao.org/ag/locusts
  5. 5. Africa is warmer than100 years ago +4˚C2-4˚C increase by 2050s +3˚Cgreatest warming along Sahara edge (0.5˚C/decade) +2˚Cwarming increases the spatial variability of rainfallsubstantial and sustained decline in rainfall (Sahel)decrease: Sahel (Mar-Aug), Sahara (Dec-May) -0.25-0increase: Sahel (Jun-Aug), Sahara (Sep-Feb) 0-0.25 0.25-0.5Sahara will turn green like 12,000 years ago mm/dayincrease in the intensity of high rainfall events IPCC3
  6. 6. Habitat the Sahara is in retreat in the past 15 years (satellite imagery)Predictions rainfall under climate change scenarios in the Sahara varies and lacks consensus half the models follow a wetter trend, half follow a drier high uncertainty over Sahara due to few stations & poor quality data regional models + satellite + stations may offer more precise estimates
  7. 7. Ice Age Holocene Present (cold, dry) (warm, wet) desert forest18,000 years ago 8,000 4,500 500 5
  8. 8. LL H H IPCC AR4
  9. 9.
  10. 10. Keith CressmanSenior Locust Forecasting OfficerRome, Italykeith.cressman@fao.orgwww.fao.org/ag/locusts

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