Confidence based-learning in investment analysis
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Confidence based-learning in investment analysis
- 1. Confidence-based-learning in investment analysis Enric Serradell-Lopez, UOC Pablo Lara Navarra David Castillo Merino Inés Gonzalez Gonzalez
- 2. Index • Introduction • Theoretical discussion • Research design • Results and discussion
- 3. Introduction • Knowledge • Professional knowledge (ISCO) • Knowledge measurement • Knowledge in organizations
- 4. Research problem Uninformed - Misinformed What is worse?
- 5. Four situations of knowledge and confidence With confidence Without confidence Correct answer Science Uncertainty Incorrect answer Delusion Ignorance
- 6. Knowledge Assessment • Training test (formative assesment) • Evaluative test (summative assessment)
- 7. Research questions • Is there a difference in the degree of confidence in the responses in the two periods? • Does it match the degree of difficulty of the questions provided by teachers with lower levels of confidence in the answers? • Is it related to the time spent fulfilling in the test with the level of confidence in the answers?
- 8. Final version test • 20 questions: Four alternative answers. • Three levels of difficulty (8,8,4) • Each question has associated other (confidence degree) • Number or participants: 101 participants first questionnaire + 67 participant second questionnaire
- 9. Analysis Confidence: Likert-type scale , five positions 1: Extremely unsure 2: Very unsure 3: Somewhat sure 4: Sure 5: Extremely sure
- 10. Research questions • Is there a difference in the degree of confidence in the responses in the two periods? • Does it match the degree of difficulty of the questions provided by teachers with lower levels of confidence in the answers? • Is it related to the time spent fulfilling in the test with the level of confidence in the answers?
- 11. Is there a difference in the degree of confidence in the responses in the two periods? Test t for equality of means Confidence period 1: 1,8 Confidence period 2: 3,35
- 12. Research questions • Is there a difference in the degree of confidence in the responses in the two periods? • Does it match the degree of difficulty of the questions provided by teachers with lower levels of confidence in the answers? • Is it related to the time spent fulfilling in the test with the level of confidence in the answers?
- 13. Does it match the degree of difficulty of the questions provided by teachers with lower levels of confidence in the answers? Period 1 Period 2 Level 1 (basic level) 2,05 3,5 Level 2 (intermediate level) 1,8 3,2 Level 3 (advanced level) 1,2 3,1
- 14. Research questions • Is there a difference in the degree of confidence in the responses in the two periods? • Does it match the degree of difficulty of the questions provided by teachers with lower levels of confidence in the answers? • Is it related to the time spent fulfilling in the test with the level of confidence in the answers?
- 15. Is it related to the time spent fulfilling in the test with the level of confidence in the answers? Period 1 Period 2 Time (seconds) 965 (48,25 seconds/question) 109 (55 seconds/questio n)
- 16. Confidence-based-learning in investment analysis Enric Serradell-Lopez, UOC Pablo Lara Navarra David Castillo Merino Inés Gonzalez Gonzalez
Editor's Notes
- We start from the classical definition of knowledge as justified true belief. Usually talking about a real and true answer is difficult and complex. so it has replaced the concept of true by "right" somehow to suggest that such knowledge is recognized among the group so it is ready to establishing rules on a particular subject area. The term professional is used here according with the definition of International Standard classification of occupations (ISCO):” Professionals increase the existing stock of knowledge, apply scientific or artistic concepts and theories, teach about the foregoing in a systematic manner, or engage in any combination of these three activities”. Our first aim is to determine what is the appropriate knowledge in organizations. What knowledge is more valued and what knowledge not.
- Our research question is focused on the diference between uninformation and misinformation. In today’s multiple-choice tests if an incorrect answer is selected, then it is interpreted simply that the person does not know the answer, i.e. is uninformed . This inference is misleading. Specifically, the person may be extremely sure that the incorrect answer which he selected is correct and, thus, may be misinformed – which is much worse than being uninformed (Hunt, 2003). In this sense, it helps to visualize schematically the four situations that can arise combining correct-incorrect answer and security – insecurity in the response (Morales, 2008).
- Our goal is to get as many students as possible can be placed in the first quadrant (science) that corresponds to the maximum of knowledge and confidence, and at the same time reducing the other quadrants, especially the third quadrant (delusion), which corresponds to the minimum knowledge and maximum confidence, and in which knowledge is expected to be more damaging to business. As expressed in the preceding paragraphs.
- The next question is how to value the knowledge. That’s to say how to build a good knowledge assessment system incorporating confidence level. In general, there are two manners to make a test we distinguish between two types of tests: tests training (formative assessment) and evaluative tests (summative assessment). We use a mixed approach On the one hand, and regarding formative assessment, we have followed the work of Gardner and Medwin, A. (2003), we have the evidence that learning seems most effective when tests are voluntary and they have no impact in terms of academic score, so it is filled in completely voluntary. Additionaly, regarding Summative assessment, some authors consider that Confidence-based marking places a premium on careful thinking and on checks that can help tie together different facets of knowledge. It thereby encourages deeper understanding and learning (Bryan and Clegg, 2006: 148) Confidence-based learning has been used extensively in some specific knowledge areas such medical courses Gardner-Medwin and Gahan (2003), but as we know, it hasn’t been studied in areas related with financial concepts. Therefore, we have used a mixed test, on the one hand, using a formative training test (without official score) but using this score to value the output of the assessment.
- So, the research problem focuses on linking the assessment of learning outcomes from a mixed perspective. Making use of a multiple choice questionnaire will assess the degree of acquired expertise combined with the confidence placed by people who answer the questionnaire. The research questions are the following…
- In orden to answer the research questions we have made a questionnaire. The final version of the test contains 20 questions with alternatives response where one and only one was correct. While it is possible that the correct answer would be: "above all" or "none of the above" In addition and with each of the questions the student should answer the degree of confidence in the response. The questions were contained in four blocks of homogeneous content. Each block contained five questions, two of which corresponded to level 1 (basic), two questions corresponded to level 2 (intermediate level) and one question to level 3 (advanced). In total, therefore, the breakdown by level of difficulty of the 20 questions was: 8 questions of level 1, 8, and Level 2 questions 4 questions at level 3. The questionnaires are linked to the knowledge area of investment analysis, which is part of the curriculum of the Administration and Management degree. From a total of 606 students, 101 respondents filled out the first questionnaire, and 67 students filled the second. Producing a response rate of 16,7 % and 11 % respectively. The first questionnaire was completed before performing any academic activity. The second questionnaire, which contained exactly the same questions, was completed at the end of the year coinciding with the usual period of exams.
- As stated earlier, each question in the questionnaire included another question about the degree of security and confidence in the response variable using a Likert-type scale, with five values, on which the value 1 indicated “Extremely unsure”, 2: “Very unsure”, 3: “Somewhat sure”, 4: “Sure”, and 5: “Extremely sure”. To verify the above proposals has proceeded to a data analysis using the t test for equality of means.
- We come back again over the research questions.
- The confidence level average for the first periode is 1,8. Therefore, placed between Extremely unsure and very unsure Instead, the confidence level average for the the second period is 3,35, therefore placed between Somewhat sure and very sure. So, confidence level has increased 83 %. The test t for equality of means shows that this difference is significant from the statistical point of view.
- Regarding the second question, we want to study if the degree of difficulty provided by teacher has some kind of relation with the level of confidence in the answers showed by students.
- So, This section analyzes the responses according to the level of difficulty a priori established by the professor. The results show that the difficulty of the questions selected by the teacher adapts to the difficulty level set. The higher the diffculty the greater the uncertainty expected in the response, so the confidence decrease. The differences significant from the statistical point of view.
- Regarding the third question, and taking into account the time speent in fulfill the test
- Under the asumption that all the time spent has been devoted to reflection te thime dedicated to fulfill the second questionaire was higher than in the first period. However the differences between time periods are shown as not significant.