1. EDR Insight Market Update:
Navigating In An Uncertain Market
Presented by:
Ashley Gowen, Research Analyst
Orlando, FL
December 4, 2012
© 2012 Environmental Data Resources, Inc.

2. 4 Keys to Navigating an Uncertain Market

3. 1. MARKET METRICS
Commercial
Real Estate
Due
Diligence Lending

4. Bumpy Road for Commercial Real Estate
• Transactions in 3Q12:
• Up slightly from
3Q11
• Well above „09
• In recent quarters, rate
of growth has declined

5. Multifamily, Office Drive Property Deals
• Majority of gains driven by:
• Multifamily and Class A office
• The “sweet spots”
• Largely viewed as low risk
• Retail:
• Recovering, but bifurcated
• Development:
• Accelerating

6. Downturn, Distress, Contamination
• Distressed asset deals bringing contamination into play.
• Properties and projects that failed are coming back into
the market.
• “We are reviewing portfolios of distressed loans with
significant environmental conditions—including projects
that stalled years ago because the owners defaulted and
abandoned their development plans.”
Senior VP at a major consulting firm

7. The Pulse of Lending on Properties
• Fewer troubled assets on their books.
• The number of “problem banks” is falling.
• Lending up albeit moderately
• Mainly for top-quality borrowers, Class-A
assets and in primary markets.
• Assets with any sort of risk profile and
borrowers without a strong track record,
however, remain more difficult to finance.

8. The Liquidity Squeeze is On
• Lenders face added regulatory burdens, the
need to minimize risk and compete for
borrowers:
• Large national banks focused on gateway
markets and institutional properties.
• Regional banks have slowly picked up their
commercial lending.
• Obstacles to lending remain for smaller
community banks struggling with distressed
commercial real estate assets.

9. Positive Signs in Lending
• Many have worked through their distressed assets
and are ready to start growing again.
• More confidence, more borrowers.
• There is pressure on pricing as competition for loans
heats up.
• However, lenders view CRE as still inherently risky
Tight underwriting

10. 2012 YTD:
8% above 2011 YTD
Up 43% above
market’s Oct. 2009
low point

11. Regional Phase I ESA Activity: 3Q on 3Q
7% 8% -3%
9%
3%
7%
2%
6%

12. Regional Phase I ESA Activity: 3Q on 3Q
Page 12

13. Florida: Quarterly Phase I ESA Growth

14. METRO WATCH: Q on Q Growth (3Q12)

15. Active Florida Metros…
Southern FLA:
the 8th most
active market for
property deals in
the U.S.

16. Active Florida Metros…
Miami:
The 4th most active
metro in terms of
deals by foreign
investors

17. …Orlando is in Top 30 US “Markets to
Watch” for Property Investment,
Development
Page 17

18. Orlando on Investors’ Radar:
• In Orlando‟s favor:
• Investment prospects are improving in 2013.
• Orlando has more development opportunities.
• Downside are the many economic issues Florida has faced.
• Orlando benefits from job situation that is not as harsh as other
FL metros, mainly due to the tourism industry.
• “We see it in Orlando . . . those markets are back.”
~PricewaterhouseCoopers
Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2013

19. 2. ATTITUDES TOWARD PROPERTY RISK
© 2012 Environmental Data Resources, Inc.

20. Risk Aversion Is High Among Investors
“A negative, or rather extremely conservative, mindset
is prevalent with the investors in the market. Many
investors are analyzing assets based on the 'what-
could-go-wrong' view versus spending time focusing
on 'what-could-go-right' and this has had an impact
on pricing and deal velocity."
Steve Timmel, senior vice president of Colliers
International

21. Risk Aversion Is High Among Lenders
• More lenders paying closer attention to findings and
recommendations, considering their risk if recommendations
are ignored.
• More clients want detailed assessment of potential risk and
recommendations for mitigation of known conditions.
• More community banks are attempting to develop more
current risk management policies.

22. RISK is the New 4-Letter Word
• Feedback from EPs:
• “Banks continue to fight for no environmental
conditions at a property, regardless of the findings.”
• “Lenders are definitely more risk averse.”
• “Banks appear to be looking for reasons not to make
loans.”

23. Risk Aversion (cont’d)
• “My clients are demanding a more consultative approach to
ESA completion as opposed to only report delivery.”
• “In the past, Phase II equaled dead transaction. Now there is
more willingness to consider risking away issues through
Phase IIs.”
• “They want the thorough investigation but are not necessarily
allowing more time for it. The lenders are very competitive
with one another, so they don’t have the luxury of higher due
diligence fees or longer due diligence periods.”
Source: EDR Insight‟s Quarterly Survey of EPs.

24. Risk Management is Now “Everyone’s
Business”
• “What happens today that was not back in 2006 and 2007 is that
loan closings are being delayed for environmental issues, simply
because financial institutions are no longer willing to take on risk as
they once were.”
• “It has brought the opportunity—good or bad—to revisit decisions we
made during the good times….to rethink our approach to due
diligence.”
• “What has changed is the relationship with loan officers. Years back,
they tended to resist environmental due diligence. Now there is much
greater awareness.”

25. 3. AREAS OF OPPORTUNITY

26. 1. Focus on the Most Active Lenders
Status of CRE Lending by Source:
Commercial banks Flat/moderate growth
Government (Fannie/Freddie) Active
Credit Unions Expanding
Private Equity Expanding
Life Insurance companies Peaking
CMBS Securitizations Recovering

27. Focus On Who’s Lending:
Top Originators

28. Watch for shifts toward other lending
sources:
Status of CRE Lending by Source:
Commercial banks Flat/moderate growth
Government (Fannie/Freddie) Active
Credit Unions Expanding
Private Equity Expanding
Life Insurance companies Peaking
CMBS Securitizations Recovering

29. • The U.S. SBA could be one of only a handful of federal
agencies that winds up with a bigger budget next year
than it had this year.
• Current proposal:
• As much as $16 billion in loans through the popular
7(a) program
• 15 percent increase over $13.9 billion in 7(a) loans so
far this year.

30. FY13 could be the most robust year for 7(a) lending
since FY10 (excluding FY11)

31. Strongest SBA Lenders in the U.S.:

32. REITs Are Raising Capital:
Notable Private Funding Raisings in 1H2012
FIRM NAME CAPITAL RAISED
Blackstone $6.6 billion
UBS $1.8 billion
Carlyle Group $1.4 billion
Rockpoint Group $1.3 billion
GEM Capital $1.3 billion
McMorgan & Co. $977 million

33. REITs (cont’d)
• Among REITs‟ top concerns are risks related to factors that
could devalue their properties, including environmental liability.

34. RETAILER CATEGORY PLANNED OPENINGS
Dollar General Dollar 625
Family Dollar Dollar 450 – 500
Dollar Tree Dollar 315
CVS Drug 225 – 250
Walgreens Drug 150 – 175
Advanced Auto Parts Auto 130 – 150
AutoZone Auto 125
RiteAid Drug 100

35. Robust Forecast for New Store Openings
• U.S. retailer store-opening plans hit a four-year high
• 78,000 new stores planned over the next 24 months
• Up 11 percent from the 2-year period ended in 2011
• Very focused in specific sectors, geographic areas

36. • 1st benchmarking report on Local Law 84 (LL84), which
requires all privately-owned properties with individual
buildings over 50,000 square feet to annually measure
and report their energy and water usage.
• Disclosure laws like NYC‟s create opportunities for
environmental consultants in contributing data and
information to this and similar reporting in growing
number of metros.

37. Strong Drivers for Energy Audits
• Rising energy costs
• Weak appreciation in property prices
• Metro disclosure laws
• Federal requirements
• HUD now has a requirement that all Physical Needs
Assessments (its PCA equivalent) be accompanied by
energy audits at all Public Housing Authority sites
"Green building is not a curiosity anymore -- it's a huge
market. The green building sector will be a $280 billion global
industry by the end of the decade.” Lux Research, Boston

38. Foreign Investors and EB-5 Program
• Old program gaining new interest as avenue to stimulate
capital investment by foreign investors.
• NYC is a top target of foreign investors
• In FY12, the number of EB-5 projects approved was triple
FY09 levels.
• “Typically as a condition of closing, the borrower will
need to provide a clean Phase I environmental site
assessment report along with other due diligence items.”
• EB-5 presents a way for EPs to connect with key players:
• 209 Regional Centers in 40 states.

39. 4. ADOPT WINNING STRATEGIES

40. Strategies to Win
You get out there.
You stay on the cutting edge of technical knowledge.
You educate clients, connect the dots for them.
You embrace a “customer first” attitude.
You have an active business development function.

41. Strategies to Win
You get out there.
You stay on the cutting edge of technical knowledge.
You educate clients, connect the dots for them.
You embrace a “customer first” attitude.
You have an active business development function.

42. Strategies to Win
You get out there.
You stay on the cutting edge of technical knowledge.
You educate clients, connect the dots for them.
You embrace a “customer first” attitude.
You have an active business development function.

43. Education Is Key As Market Recovers
• New lending, investments are on the board for 2012.
• Banks, investment firms are replacing past layoffs with
junior staff.
• Leading to a “rustiness” in engaging Phase I ESAs.
• A learning curve as market adjusts to new risk aversion.

44. Topics for Client Education Efforts
• New E 1527 standard
• Vapor intrusion awareness
• Updates to policies like SBA, HUD, Fannie Mae
• Real-world examples/reminders of why environmental
due diligence is critical

45. Strategies to Win
You get out there.
You stay on the cutting edge of technical knowledge.
You educate clients, connect the dots for them.
You embrace a “customer first” attitude.
You have an active business development function.

46. Strategies to Win
You get out there.
You stay on the cutting edge of technical knowledge.
You educate clients, connect the dots for them.
You embrace a “customer first” attitude.
You have an active business development function.

47. Parting Thoughts

48. Positive Forces in the Forecast
• Improvements in both the cost and availability of
commercial mortgage capital are expected to propel
transaction volumes in Q4 and into 2013.
• Real estate remains attractive to lenders, investors.
• An improving picture in the jobs market is expected to
boost the commercial real estate recovery in 2013.
• Investors are willing to take on more risk in their portfolios
in 2013 to gain greater yields:
• more investment and interest in secondary and tertiary
markets outside of strongholds such as New York and
San Francisco.

49. Parting Thoughts
• The market is recovering.
• Market uncertainty creates aversion to risk.
• New players and new markets are emerging.
• Think critically about where and how you can
compete most effectively.
Page 49

50. Parting Thoughts
• The market is recovering.
• Market uncertainty creates aversion to risk.
• New players and new markets are emerging.
• Think critically about where and how you can
compete most effectively.
Be strategic and grow!
Page 50

51. Ashley Gowen
Research Analyst, EDR Insight
Research and Analytics:
www.edrnet.com/EDRInsight
Twitter:
@EDRInsight
Email:
agowen@edrnet.com