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Are our results reliable enough to
     support a conclusion?
                  Geoff Browne
              Anglo-European School
                    Essex, UK
Imagine we chose two children at random from two class
rooms…


D8                            C1




             … and compare their height …
D8                     C1
     … we find that
      one pupil is
     taller than the
          other




                            WHY?
REASON 1: There is a significant difference between the
           two groups, so pupils in C1 are taller than
                           pupils in D8
D8                                        C1




YEAR 7                                           YEAR 11
REASON 2: By chance, we picked a short pupil from D8
          and a tall one from C1

D8                                     C1




   TITCH                                 HAGRID
  (Year 9)                               (Year 9)
How do we decide which reason is
         most likely?



MEASURE MORE STUDENTS!!!
If there is a significant difference between the two groups…

D8                     … the average or      C1
                      mean height of the
                      two groups should
                          be very…
                       … DIFFERENT
If there is no significant difference between the two groups…

D8                     … the average or     C1
                      mean height of the
                      two groups should
                          be very…
                         … SIMILAR
Remember:
Living things normally show
a lot of variation, so…
It is VERY unlikely that the mean height of our two samples
will be exactly the same

C1 Sample                         D8 Sample




  Average height = 162 cm         Average height = 168 cm


 Is the difference in average height of the samples
            large enough to be significant?
16
We can analyse the                     14               C1 Sample
spread of the heights of               12




                           Frequency
the students in the                    10
                                       8
samples by drawing
                                       6
histograms                             4
                                       2

Here, the ranges of the                     140-   150- 160- 170-     180-
                                            149    159   169    179   189
two samples have a                                    Height (cm)
small overlap, so…                     16
                                       14
                                       12
                                                         D8 Sample
… the difference between   Frequency   10
                                       8
the means of the two                   6
samples IS probably                    4
significant.                           2

                                            140-   150- 160- 170-     180-
                                            149    159   169    179   189
                                                      Height (cm)
16
Here, the ranges of                 14               C1 Sample
the two samples have                12




                        Frequency
a large overlap, so…                10
                                    8
                                    6
                                    4
… the difference                    2
between the two                          140-   150- 160- 170-     180-
samples may NOT be                       149    159   169    179   189
                                                   Height (cm)
significant.                        16
                                    14
                                    12
                                                      D8 Sample
The difference in       Frequency
                                    10
means is possibly due               8
to random sampling                  6
                                    4
error
                                    2

                                         140-   150- 160- 170-     180-
                                         149    159   169    179   189
                                                   Height (cm)
To decide if there is a significant difference between two
   samples we must compare the mean height for each
   sample…
                   … and the spread of heights in each sample.

   Statisticians calculate the standard deviation of a sample
   as a measure of the spread of a sample

   You can calculate standard deviation using the formula:
                         Where:
                 (Σx)2            Sx is the standard deviation of sample
Sx =   Σx2   -                    Σ stands for ‘sum of’
                  n
                                  x stands for the individual measurements in
         n-1                               the sample
                                  n is the number of individuals in the sample
It is much easier to use the statistics functions on a scientific
calculator!
e.g. for data 25, 34, 13

Set calculator on statistics mode

 MODE      2       (CASIO fx-85MS)

Clear statistics memory

 SHIFT     CLR      1 (Scl) =

Enter data

  2   5   DT (M+ Button)      3   4   DT     1   3   DT
Calculate the mean

AC    SHIFT    S-VAR (2 Button) 1 ( x ) =       24

Calculate the standard deviation

AC    SHIFT    S-VAR     3 (xσn-1) =        10.5357
Student’s t-test
The Student’s t-test compares the averages and standard
deviations of two samples to see if there is a significant
difference between them.
We start by calculating a number, t
 t can be calculated using the equation:

        ( x1 – x2 )       Where:
t=                                 x1 is the mean of sample 1
      (s1)2       (s2)2            s1 is the standard deviation of sample 1
              +                    n1 is the number of individuals in sample 1
       n1          n2
                                   x2 is the mean of sample 2
                                   s2 is the standard deviation of sample 2
                                   n2 is the number of individuals in sample 2
Worked Example: Random samples were taken of pupils in
C1 and D8

Their recorded heights are shown below…

                           Students in C1                       Students in D8


     Student   145   149       152     153   154    148   153       157     161   162
     Height
               154   158       160     166   166    162   163       167     172   172
      (cm)
               166   167       175     177   182    175   177       183     185   187




Step 1: Work out the mean height for each sample

     C1: x1 = 161.60                               D8: x2 = 168.27

Step 2: Work out the difference in means

    x2 – x1 = 168.27 – 161.60 = 6.67
Step 3: Work out the standard deviation for each sample

    C1: s1 = 10.86             D8: s2 = 11.74


Step 4: Calculate s2/n for each sample

          C1: (s1)2
                      = 10.862 ‚ 15 = 7.86
               n1

         D8: (s2)2
                      = 11.742 ‚ 15 = 9.19
              n2
Step 5: Calculate                  (s1)2       (s2)2
                                           +
                                    n1         n2


   (s1)2          (s2)2       =        (7.86 + 9.19) =    4.13
             +
   n1              n2

Step 6: Calculate t               (Step 2 divided by Step 5)

                      x2 – x1
        t=
                                               6.67
                 (s1)2            (s2)2    =             = 1.62
                          +                     4.13
                 n1               n2
Step 7: Work out the number of degrees of freedom

  d.f. = n1 + n2 – 2 = 15 + 15 – 2 = 28


Step 8: Find the critical value of t for the relevant number of
degrees of freedom

Use the 95% (p=0.05) confidence limit

Critical value = 2.048

Our calculated value of t is below the critical value for 28d.f.,
therefore, there is no significant difference between the
height of students in samples from C1 and D8
Do not worry if you do not understand
  how or why the test works


              Follow the
             instructions
            CAREFULLY
You will NOT need to remember how to do this for your exam
Uploaded (with permission from Geoff Browne)
             by Stephen Taylor




       For more IB Biology resources:
   http://sciencevideos.wordpress.com

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T test-

  • 1. Are our results reliable enough to support a conclusion? Geoff Browne Anglo-European School Essex, UK
  • 2. Imagine we chose two children at random from two class rooms… D8 C1 … and compare their height …
  • 3. D8 C1 … we find that one pupil is taller than the other WHY?
  • 4. REASON 1: There is a significant difference between the two groups, so pupils in C1 are taller than pupils in D8 D8 C1 YEAR 7 YEAR 11
  • 5. REASON 2: By chance, we picked a short pupil from D8 and a tall one from C1 D8 C1 TITCH HAGRID (Year 9) (Year 9)
  • 6. How do we decide which reason is most likely? MEASURE MORE STUDENTS!!!
  • 7. If there is a significant difference between the two groups… D8 … the average or C1 mean height of the two groups should be very… … DIFFERENT
  • 8. If there is no significant difference between the two groups… D8 … the average or C1 mean height of the two groups should be very… … SIMILAR
  • 9. Remember: Living things normally show a lot of variation, so…
  • 10. It is VERY unlikely that the mean height of our two samples will be exactly the same C1 Sample D8 Sample Average height = 162 cm Average height = 168 cm Is the difference in average height of the samples large enough to be significant?
  • 11. 16 We can analyse the 14 C1 Sample spread of the heights of 12 Frequency the students in the 10 8 samples by drawing 6 histograms 4 2 Here, the ranges of the 140- 150- 160- 170- 180- 149 159 169 179 189 two samples have a Height (cm) small overlap, so… 16 14 12 D8 Sample … the difference between Frequency 10 8 the means of the two 6 samples IS probably 4 significant. 2 140- 150- 160- 170- 180- 149 159 169 179 189 Height (cm)
  • 12. 16 Here, the ranges of 14 C1 Sample the two samples have 12 Frequency a large overlap, so… 10 8 6 4 … the difference 2 between the two 140- 150- 160- 170- 180- samples may NOT be 149 159 169 179 189 Height (cm) significant. 16 14 12 D8 Sample The difference in Frequency 10 means is possibly due 8 to random sampling 6 4 error 2 140- 150- 160- 170- 180- 149 159 169 179 189 Height (cm)
  • 13. To decide if there is a significant difference between two samples we must compare the mean height for each sample… … and the spread of heights in each sample. Statisticians calculate the standard deviation of a sample as a measure of the spread of a sample You can calculate standard deviation using the formula: Where: (Σx)2 Sx is the standard deviation of sample Sx = Σx2 - Σ stands for ‘sum of’ n x stands for the individual measurements in n-1 the sample n is the number of individuals in the sample
  • 14. It is much easier to use the statistics functions on a scientific calculator! e.g. for data 25, 34, 13 Set calculator on statistics mode MODE 2 (CASIO fx-85MS) Clear statistics memory SHIFT CLR 1 (Scl) = Enter data 2 5 DT (M+ Button) 3 4 DT 1 3 DT
  • 15. Calculate the mean AC SHIFT S-VAR (2 Button) 1 ( x ) = 24 Calculate the standard deviation AC SHIFT S-VAR 3 (xσn-1) = 10.5357
  • 16. Student’s t-test The Student’s t-test compares the averages and standard deviations of two samples to see if there is a significant difference between them. We start by calculating a number, t t can be calculated using the equation: ( x1 – x2 ) Where: t= x1 is the mean of sample 1 (s1)2 (s2)2 s1 is the standard deviation of sample 1 + n1 is the number of individuals in sample 1 n1 n2 x2 is the mean of sample 2 s2 is the standard deviation of sample 2 n2 is the number of individuals in sample 2
  • 17. Worked Example: Random samples were taken of pupils in C1 and D8 Their recorded heights are shown below… Students in C1 Students in D8 Student 145 149 152 153 154 148 153 157 161 162 Height 154 158 160 166 166 162 163 167 172 172 (cm) 166 167 175 177 182 175 177 183 185 187 Step 1: Work out the mean height for each sample C1: x1 = 161.60 D8: x2 = 168.27 Step 2: Work out the difference in means x2 – x1 = 168.27 – 161.60 = 6.67
  • 18. Step 3: Work out the standard deviation for each sample C1: s1 = 10.86 D8: s2 = 11.74 Step 4: Calculate s2/n for each sample C1: (s1)2 = 10.862 ‚ 15 = 7.86 n1 D8: (s2)2 = 11.742 ‚ 15 = 9.19 n2
  • 19. Step 5: Calculate (s1)2 (s2)2 + n1 n2 (s1)2 (s2)2 = (7.86 + 9.19) = 4.13 + n1 n2 Step 6: Calculate t (Step 2 divided by Step 5) x2 – x1 t= 6.67 (s1)2 (s2)2 = = 1.62 + 4.13 n1 n2
  • 20. Step 7: Work out the number of degrees of freedom d.f. = n1 + n2 – 2 = 15 + 15 – 2 = 28 Step 8: Find the critical value of t for the relevant number of degrees of freedom Use the 95% (p=0.05) confidence limit Critical value = 2.048 Our calculated value of t is below the critical value for 28d.f., therefore, there is no significant difference between the height of students in samples from C1 and D8
  • 21. Do not worry if you do not understand how or why the test works Follow the instructions CAREFULLY You will NOT need to remember how to do this for your exam
  • 22. Uploaded (with permission from Geoff Browne) by Stephen Taylor For more IB Biology resources: http://sciencevideos.wordpress.com