The Cathedral and the Bazaar - musings on iPhone and Android

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+ Jonathan Bardi 2 months ago
WIsh and hope all you want, its not gonna happen dude... Android just doesn’t have what it takes to de-seat the iPhone
+ Neerav Bhatt 5 months ago
Video and Audio of David’s talk can be viewed on Vimeo at http://bit.ly/XN7bP

I’ve repurposed a famous thesis to explore what is emerging in the mobile space with the two contenders that are most likely to thrive, prosper and survive.Sorry to not cover extremely cool things like OpenMoko but I struggle to see the telcos supporting OpenMoko descendent at commercial volumes. (phreaking)The focus is not the vendor strategies but where developers and entrepreneurs need to be directing their attention for user experience diversity and richness of “fit for purpose”.Yet, entrepreneurs and developers are early adopters and the uptake of a closed environment (iPhone) seems counter to their normal values of openness, hack-ability and diversity. #bcs5

Apple is the supreme branding machine.Google marketing?….. *sigh*Android also relies on handset partners for promoting the platform, if anyone has seen the T-Mobile advertisements – there is no comparison to an iPhone TV spot.But this is the reality of a “bazaar” approach, a completely diverse and often crappy marketing and UX experience.

But whats with the high collars?Just sayin – that’s all.

Steve helps Lisa with her accidental debt to iTunes by permitting her to work it off.Shame on you Groening!

An unstoppable force?The truth is that there were 294million handsets shipped annually at the end Q4 2008Source: Strategy Analytics

Tumbleweeds blow by……“a few million handsets have been sold….” (I couldn’t find an accurate statistic in time for the talk)

The analysts are bullish – maybe smoking the good stuffBut really it take much to get 9x on current shipments, particularly if some handsets are at the lower end and supported by Carrier contracts.

Apple execute the Gladwell manual better than anybody else. They know what it takes to grab early adopters (like barcamp attendees)

So lets take a quick spin through Android handsets.

Here is a China originated handset that is a fraction of the price when purchased outright, may not be the coolest phone but a mass market device with full access to Android multi-tasking OS and App ecosystem.

New HTC handset already shipping

Due Q4 2009

So there will be plenty of diversity of many different grades, qualities and “fit” for target market. ODMs that have traditionally paid Microsoft a license fee for each Win Mobile get to save around $15 per handset by shipping Android.

There is no argument, the appstore has been a phenomenal success, but is it a wealth generator?Most Developers will be poor. iPhones are simply a new platform with a few extra sensors and true “always-on”/immediacy.

No breach of export license restrictions. Sometimes passes Appstore approval, sometimes rejected.

Applications can extend the capability of the browser or other published interfaces. Apps are still sandboxed.

Caveat Emptor: Statistics provided by The Onion!Not so much a “call to action” but a “call to think”. For entrepreneurs don’t chase the ball but build apps for” where the ball will be”. Build applications for not just the coolest monolithic ecosystem (the iphone you are carrying now) but for the coming array of less cool handsets that will help a lot of people in a more open ecosystem. Why support a lockin?

If you don’t like fruit markets….

How about a floating market, or a spice market?...the point is wonderful, chaotic, often-failing diversity is good.

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The Cathedral and the Bazaar - musings on iPhone and Android - Presentation Transcript

MUSINGS ON iPHONE AND ANDROID
A remix
David Jones
For BarCamp Sydney 5 #bcs5
Sorry, no OpenMoko, Maemo, Moblin, Blackberry or WinMobile
Battle of 2 marketing powerhouses?
VS
I’m not saying evil empire….
….But others might
Meanwhile…….in Androidville
Meanwhile…….
Tyranny of Coolat first you are unique…you stand out in the crowd
Tyranny of CoolThen everyone gets into the act
So….Where Apple take you go next???
More at the Top: 3GS
More at the Bottom: $99 phone
1 million phones sold in 4 days
Continue to hook user dependency on eco-system – only iTunes? (or PUSH)
And More Chinese Handsets….
Appstore as revolution or sharecropping?
Incredible Innovation
ms-dos + download.com rolled into one
Micro-payments
InApp Payments
52K Apps, 23.4% are free, 67% cost less than $1 and 97% cost less than $10
Average App price $2.85
White Noise generator (just too many applications - a power law will apply to developer wealth – most developers will be poor)
Source: 148apps.biz
Developers get to be Sharecroppers
Apple Margin 30% per app
approximately US$45m to date
Not seeing too many retiring iPhone developers, Not seeing Exits in the startups
Apple Developer NDA
Approval Process (Average approval time 7.02 days over last 30 days)
Moral Approval Process (No Adult)
Credit Card Chargebacks (Developer repays ALL, Apple keeps the margin)
"Over the past two months, Apple has blocked our breakthrough video camera app, iVidCam, and our attempts to dialogue with them." A very upset iPhone developer, GP Apps, has gone public with its battle with Apple's legal department, and has informed the press (including NewsWireless). "undocumented API call” – one developer’s experience of Appstore approval process – Apple later release a competitive product (at a price)
SafeAndSurf – rejected for protecting user passwords (AES 128 bit crypto)
OS/App Extensibility
Giving the user better UX between the App and the OS
On the iPhone – how do I share a Web Page?.....I share the way apple wants me to share
On Android – I share the way I want to. (this screenshot is the “share” menu option on my Android browser)
YOUR CHOICE(as developer, entrepreneur and consumer)“90% Of Waking Hours Spent Staring At Glowing Rectangles”The Onion
The Magnificent Cathedral
To admire the magnificent architecture and live by the dogma?
As designed by the landlord/priests
You are granted individuality at the Application level
You need a 24 month contract to belong…
Or the chaos and diversity of the bazaar
Do we buy our coffee from starbucks? (in Oz, no)
Still get Uniformity and Choice at Application Level
Bad and Great UX – but custom OS UX is possible
We will see Mediocre and Great Form-factors
Heterogeneous
Everyone can join:
Contracts
Pre-Paid SIMs
Wifi only
Thanks!
@djinoz
for
#bcs5