Smart Glasses Market report 2015: towards 1 billion shipments
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A new report by AugmentedReality.Org, authored by world expert Ori Inbar, is predicting that the Smart Glasses market will soar towards 1 billion shipments near the end of the decade. The report, "Smart Glasses Market 2015", defines the scope of the Smart Glasses (or Augmented Reality Glasses) market, predicts how fast it will ramp up, and which companies are positioned to gain from it. It forecasts the adoption phases between 2014-2023, the drivers and challenges for adoption, and how hardware and software companies, as well as investors should plan ahead to take part in the next big computing cycle. Companies Mentioned in this Report Google, Epson, Microsoft, Intel, Sony, Vuzix, Optinvent, Lumus, Meta, Samsung, Apple, Amazon, Kopin, ODG, Atheer, Glassup, Mirama, Penny, Laster, Recon, Innovega, Elbit, Brother, Oakley, Fujitsu, Canon, Lenovo, Baidu, Nokia, LG, Olympus, Foxconn, Konica Minolta, Daqri, Skully Helmets, Fusar, Seebright, Caputer, RideOn, Zebra Technologies, Magic Leap, Oculus.
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Smart Glasses Market report 2015: towards 1 billion shipments
- 1. The Smart Glasses Market: Towards 1 Billion Shipments Ori Inbar CEO, Augmented Reality.Org Augmented World Expo
- 2. Inspire 1 Billion Active Users of Augmented reality by 2020
- 3. “By far the best report I have seen in my 25 years in this industry” - Steve Willey, CEO Innovega
- 4. The Smart Glass Startup Guy When to launch? The Software Developer Who to partner with? Who’s it for? What’s the traction? The Investor Build or buy? The Electronics Giant
- 6. Will the Market Happen? It’s Inevitable It’s Inexorable “There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home” – Ken Olsen, 1977 ✔ ✔
- 7. Inevitabl e The Inevitability of Augmented Reality
- 8. “When your glasses-wearing workmates, playmates or classmates perform better than you – can you afford not to wear?”
- 9. Super Powers To The People
- 10. The Market Augmented Reality Glasses
- 11. What are AR Glasses? 1. Look like regular glasses 2. Provide direct view of the world 3. Display graphics in context (using cameras & sensors)
- 12. Smart Glasses AR Glasses VR HMDs Life Logging Digital Eyewear For Visually Impaired Gaze Tracking
- 13. Recon Jet Microsoft Hololens Laster SeeThru Meta Pro Lumus DK40 Epson BT200 Vuzix m100 ODG Consumer Atheer One Sony SmartEyeGlasses Google Glass Optinvent ORA-X
- 14. The Players Pioneering Startups Vuzix, Lumus, Opinvent, Laster, Recon, Kopin, Innovega, ODG, Penny Consumer Electronics Giants in the Game Google, Epson, Microsoft, Intel, Sony Consumer Electronics Giants on the Fence Zebra (Moto), Toshiba, Nokia, Fujitsu Canon, , Brother, Samsung, LG, Lenovo, Apple, Baidu… New Breed of Startups Meta, Atheer, Glassup, Mirama, Skully, Fusar, Daqri, Seebright, Caputer Seer, RideOn, Magic Leap
- 15. Mirama Toshiba Mind Share Smart Glasses 2015 - Progress and Mind Share Meta 1 Google Glass Vuzix M100 Epson Moverio Atheer Dev Kit Magic Leap Optinvent ORA 1 Recon Jet Lumus Glassup Laster SeeThru ODG R7 Penny c Wear Kopin Golden-I Meta Pro Sony SmartEyeglass Fujitsu QD Laser Konica Minolta Announced Prototype Limited/Pre - Orders Dev. Kits Shipping Product Shipping CastAR DAQRI Smart Helmet Optinvent ORA X Seebright Seer Composyt Light/ Intel Innovega Major movement since previous 2014 report Microsoft Hololens Theia Zebra HC1 Source :Ori Inbar - synthesized from Vendors and Google Trends Low Mind share High Mind share IMMY Neo
- 16. Buying Criteria Prioritized Consumer 1 Design, Form Factor 2 Size and Weight 3 Cost for Mass Production 4 Power Consumption, Battery Life 5 Content (Apps) 6 Field of View 7 Contrast and brightness 8 Resolution 9 Eye Position, Prescription Glasses 10 Camera(s) 11 Sensors 12 Connectivity 13 Input Device(s) 14 Robustness Enterprise/Industrial Size and Weight Field of View Battery Life Robustness Contrast and Brightness Resolution Eye Position, Prescription Glasses Camera(s) Sensors Connectivity Input Device(s) Cost for Mass Production Design Content
- 18. AR Glasses Competitive Landscape 2015 Bulk vs. Field of View Overall Size Field of View (Degrees) 0 20 40 60 10080 120 AR Glasses Products Prototype Very Bulky Bulky Slim Created and augmented by Ori Inbar based on chart from Innovega Military and Special use Vuzix m100 Optinvent ORA Google Glass Epson Moverio BT-200 (Meta 1) Lumus Penny CWear NVIS Rockwell Collins Recon JetKopin Golden-i Atheer Laster Glassup Existing Generation • Waveguides • Curved Mirror ODG InnovegaInnovega EyeWay Brother AirScouter LusoVu Composyt/ LemOptix Nvidia QDLaser/ Fujitsu Magic Leap Future Generations?
- 19. Future Generations Breaking the 40º FOV Barrier 1 Dual Contact Lens- Glasses Innovega 2 Direct Retinal Projector Brother, Fujitsu QDLaser, EyeWay, Composyt Light 3 Transparent OLED LusoVu 4 Pinlight Displays Nvidia, UNC 5 Dynamic Lightfield, Vibrating Optic Scanner Magic Leap 6 Laser Combiner Fukui
- 20. Adoption
- 21. Adoption (units sold) Time Line 2014 2015 2016 20182017 2019-2023 Augmented Reality Glasses Adoption Phases - Forecast Synthesized by Ori Inbar from multiple sources Tech. Enthusiasts First 10 AR Glasses shipped 1 Million Shipments Early Adopters Initial winners emerge Major investments 10 Million Shipments Early Majority Market reaches critical mass Major shakeup (acquisitions, mergers) 50-100 Million Shipments Mainstream AR Glasses displace Smartphones Market owned by one “800 lb. Gorilla”* and 1-2 challengers >1 Billion Shipments 1M 10M 100M 1B Major Shake up
- 22. Key Adoption Drivers • Style and Cost • FOV is the new Mega Pixel race • Platform leadership: SDK, Community, Content • Cultural impact • Enterprise will lead, consumers will follow
- 23. $3,650 $1,500 $1,000 $999 $999 $699 $667 $599 $599 $500 $499 $499 $399 $380 $349 $345 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 Median $599 Source: Ori Inbar January 2015 Consumer and Enterprise Digital Eyewear Price Comparison
- 24. Bill Of Material Cost Comparison Smart Glasses Vs. Smart Phones Sources: Myanville, Teardown.com, HIS $25 $130 $155 Google Glass $42 $185 $227 iPhone 6 Display Only Everything Else Total
- 25. Suppliers Sensors IMUs etc AR Glasses Value Chain Software AR Tracking Cloud SDK AR Glasses Manufacturers Hardware Tools Compute Platform OS GPU CPU ASIC Display, Projectors Input Devices Apps Other Power, Audio, etc Connectivity WIFI, BLE, GPS Cameras Design Industrial Enterprise Retail & Commerce Training & Maintenance Education & Learning Travel & Navigation Healthcare & Recreation Games & Entertainment Urban & Architecture Military & Government Users Enterprise AppDevelopersServices Location Services Gestures Browsers Source: Ori Inbar ConsumersProsumers
- 26. Summary
- 27. Adoption (units sold) Time Line 2014 2015 2016 20182017 2019-2023 Augmented Reality Glasses Will Soar Synthesized by Ori Inbar from multiple sources Tech. Enthusiasts Early Adopters Early Majority > 1 Billion Major Shake up Mainstream 1M 10M 100M 1B
- 28. Mustn’t wait… The Smart Glass Startup GuyThe Software Developer 12 months to build, or buy Platform! Platform! Platform! Opportunity is now Jump in! The Electronics GiantThe Investor
- 29. Retail: $799 Get it at: Special combo promo with AR.org Membership $299
Editor's Notes
- Hi everybody. Thank you all for joining us this morning! It’s awesome to open the AR track at the wearable Tech Show here in brilliant London. Not too shabby. Here’s my story: My name is Ori Inbar and 8 Years ago I became an addict. I became addicted to Augmented Reality. I started a blog about AR, I founded a startup called Ogmento (now Flyby) which was awesome, and 2 years ago I left to dedicate my time to AugmentedReality.Org - a non profit organization with a mission to advance AR to advance humanity.
- We do it by educating and connecting people and by mentoring AR startups. we set up a goal of 1 billion AR users by the end of the decade. But to reach that goal, we needed a baseline, and when we looked for market reports, frankly we were disappointed – they were all over the place and lacked deep understanding of our market. So I said, heck – let’s create one. Today, I am proud to share with you our key findings from our report:
- Smart Glasses Market 2015: towards 1 billion shipments. In 5 words I can summarize it as: the future will be awesome! [click] I think you’ll appreciate it as a different kind of report, written by an industry insider. How did we write it? We constantly analyze all market reports that we can find, we interview industry experts, we try all products, we live and breath AR every day. In this report we talk about the players, the competitive landscape, market adoption drivers, and make some recommendations along the way… You could look at it as a manifesto to Rally the troops and inject a sense of urgency. Who are the troops we are trying to rally?
- 4 key audiences: [click] 1) The Investor – yes you, who saw so many pitches of AR companies and always asked them to come back when they have more traction. 2) The Electronics Giant – afraid to miss the next big thing. Can you afford to remain on the fence? 3) The Smart glass startup guy – how far should I take the product before I ship? 4) The Software guy And the entire ecosystem – who’s asking: where’s the big opportunity? What platform to build for? Who to partner with? To get your juices flowing, let’s look at the end game, which may seem shocking at first – viewer discretion advised
- At some point in the future - there will be an inflection point: More smart glasses will be sold than smartphones. Chris Anderson coined the term and describes it as: a point in time when a new technology outsells an older technology (like when DVDs outsold VHS players) For smart glasses, that’s a tall order – 1.2B smartphones shipped in 2014 and it’s expected to keep growing 30% a year. We estimate the inflection point will happen sometime between 2020 and 2023. Think of it as the end of a 10 year cycle that started when smartglasses were first introduced to the mass market (2013 is when Google Glass first shipped).
- But people still ask: will the market happen? Analysts and experts are in consensus - it’s inevitable. But I want to hear from you: do you believe it will ever happen? by show of hands who’s in favor of : [click] a) it’s Inevitable? [click] b) Who’s for B? for those who have no idea what it means: It’s just like inevitable, but more relentless… [click] c) Any Ken Olsons in the house. In 1977 Ken Olson infamously said: There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home. Any Ken Olsons here today? But why is it really inevitable?
- it’s in our bones, the need to interact with the real world. And it rhymes too. I can see a rap song here: “the inevitability of augmented reality”…may be not… But above all Augmented Reality glasses will happen because:
- When your glass-wearing workmates, playmates or classmates perform better than you – can you afford not to wear? (do you like it? It’s one of my favorite quotes in the report…I see it in a TV commercial one day) Smart glasses make people better - at anything they do, and they LOVE it! So I say:
- Super powers to the people! say it with me: Super powers to the people! [Click to smart glasses] I am sure by this time, many of you are asking – yeah but how do you define The MARKET?
- Simply put: Augmented Reality glasses. What are AR glasses?
- It’s similar to Azuma’s definition of AR: 1. They Look like regular glasses, maybe slightly bigger, and intended for enterprises and consumers (we are not including HMDs, or devices for the military and special use) 2. They Provide direct view of the world (and ideally have optical see through, not video see through.) 3. They use cameras & sensors, to display virtual graphics in context of where you are and what you do.
- When you look at all electronic eyewear in the market [click] There are AR Glasses and…virtual reality HMDs. AR Glasses are basically smart glasses [click], although today this category may also include other specialized glasses with “smarts” but with no display [click] like: life blogging, gaze tracking, and for visually impaired. We believe eventually smart glasses will prevail and most of this circle will turn green. Why? It’s more natural, it requires less energy, and it promotes BEING In THE MOMENT. So now that we have defined the market – let’s meet our wonderful contestants!
- Look at it? Ain’t it beautiful? The amazing fact is that for the first time, over 10 new AR glasses are shipping (or will ship this year.) Here’s how we segment them into groups:
- 1) [click] Pioneering startups –they started it all. (way before Glass) many where hoping to score OEM deals – but recently decided to ship their own versions and helped accelerate the market. 2) [click] Giants in the game – visionaries building on their strengths. investing a whole lot in awareness and developer ecosystem. 3) [click] Giants on the fence – afraid to miss the next computing wave, they’re investigating every startup in the space, filing patents, showing prototypes - but no full commitment yet. We expect them to jump in once they see more movement. 4) [click] New breed of startups born on kickstarter, armed with ambition to combine off the shelf components with clever design, branding and platform strategy – to create the giants of the next computing wave. [pause] How far along are all these guys?
- We plotted their progress on the product life cycle from announcement to shipping. On the vertical axis it shows how much mindshare they have created. [click] the red line is the most important milestone: shipping, But commitment to shipping (the green line - pre orders or limited quantity) – is where the game is changing. [click] cool heh? To get a sense of the speed of change in this market. Since we published the first iteration of this chart 3 months ago – [click] – The arrows indicate new products or companies that have moved a stage in their product life cycle. See the comparison with our 2014 chart. (back and forth). Now this chart doesn’t comment on quality or completeness. How will these products compete?
- Here are the buying criteria, prioritized, or what features will AR glasses compete on. Starting with Consumers: the first 5 are no brainer –every life style gadget competes on these. From our survey, the 2 most critical technical challenges that drive adoption are: [click] size & weight (how bulky is it?) and FOV. But this year, the big appeal for smart glasses is in the enterprise: smart glasses are the only technology that feeds workers with contextual information in their field of view while keeping their hands free to perform a certain task. [click] And For enterprises the prioritization is a little different –e.g. function is way more important than form and style (remember blackberry). Nevertheless, size and weight do matter - though in a different way – it mustn’t interfere with the workers task at hand. And a wide FOV is also very critical for the professional user to be able to complete a task. [click]
- So what currently defines the competitive landscape is the tradeoff between size and FOV. Physics dictate that to achieve a larger FOV you need a larger device (which btw also gets more expensive)
- To show how it plays out, we borrowed this chart from innovega and plotted products in the market [click] Current products in the market typically use one of 2 technologies: wave guides or curved mirrors. To achieve over 40 degrees it becomes too big for enterprises and consumers – at that size it’s only used for military. Is there anything behind the horizon? Check out innovega here in the corner – with a prototype for a radical new approach. And there is more. [click]
- There is a ton of innovation here: but are All still in concept phase and could take a couple of years before they hit the market. 1) Dual contact Lens-Glasses 2) DRP reviving the old microvision attempt to project lasers directly into our eyes. 3) LusoVu demonstrated at AWE an early concept for transparent OLED that covers the entire field of view 4) UNC and Nvidia recenlty published a paper on near eye display with pinholes that each creates an image 5) We don’t know much about Magic leap except that their patent mentions Dynamic lightfield and vibrating optic scanner. 6) And a few months ago Fukui announced a laser combiner for eyewear, much smaller and more efficient..
- And now to the main chart of the day: adoption. It took smartphones 10 years to go from 0 to 1 billion. If History teaches us anything is that adoption rates of new computing platforms only accelerate over time. After much input from industry experts, we decided to present the more conservative view of the growth , And here are the results.
- There is a typical phase in tech adoption when the market reaches the boiling point. The Big Sake Up. This will happen by the end of 2016 No matter if you are an investor, a giant, or a startups – you’ll need to look good by then or you’ll be out. For Giants still contemplating whether to build or buy, By that point it’ll be too late – and it will drive acquisitions. Some startups will merge and some will disappear. At this time, most sales are still in enterprise, but investors finally can feel the “traction” and jump in with major investments – and things move fast into the consumer market. The Shake up doesn’t happen overnight. In fact, the process might have already started (Intel invested and acquired, and we expect over a $billion investments this year) That would be a good time for Apple to surprise with a killer product.
- What are the adoption drivers that will move this chart? I guess you will have to read the report to find out... There is one adoption driver I’d like to touch upon: pricing
- When you look at the products in the market - the Median price turns out to be just below $600. The critical consumer price for a gadget is typically defined as below $500, so it’s pretty close. And what’s even more interesting is that it’s Similar to the smartphones price range. But what’s the cost for actually building these devices? What’s the margin we can expect?
- To analyze the cost of the bill of material - we looked at google Glasses as a proxy: the average cost for putting together the glasses is just $155. That’s not a bad margin for a $500 gadget. Moore law will keep shrinking the cost and increasing the performance – with the exception of the optics which obey the laws of physics. The good news – compared with smartphones [click] – the whole price for manufacturing glasses is cheaper, even the display itself is cheaper (and requires less energy) so it’s another natural reason for the inevitable transition from smartphones to smart glasses!
- Before we summarize, here’s a general view of the ecosystem. ★ Compute platform - CPU, GPU, Memory, ASIC, etc (e.g. Qualcomm, Intel, Nvidia, TI, ARM) ★ Design services - which is becoming critical with wearables - the most personal gadgets ever ★ Connectivity and geolocation - Cellular, Wifi, Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE), GPS, NFC ★ Input devices (OEM or after market) - Microphones, touch pads, gesture devices (e.g. Leap Motion), gaze trackers (Tobii), wrist watches and bands, 3D remotes (sixsense), smart rings (Muv), arm bands (Myo), EEG (Neurosky, Interaxon) ★ Near eye displays - including OLEDs, LCDs, micro projectors, wave guides, curved mirrors, etc (e.g. eMagin, Himax, Microvision, LemOptix, Hamamatsu, ST Micro, SBG Labs, Sensics, etc) ★ Sensors - such as inertial measuring units (accelerometers, gyro), compass, humidity, altimeters, haptics (e.g. Invensense, Freescale, Bosch, ST Micro, Plantronics, Immersion Corp.) ★ Cameras and scanners - RGB, stereoscopic, depth cameras (MV4D, Softkinetic), camera arrays (Pelican), laser-based scanner, scanning mirrors (e.g. Mirrocle, Sercalo) ★ Other - Power management, batteries, audio, non electric, supporting material, packaging, assembly and testing for mass production - Software/tools layer - Applications/services Layer - The users
- To summarize:
- AR Glasses will soar. The race for 1 Billion is on. [click] It will get ugly by 2016 – so be sure to look good by then. Everyone in the ecosystem should walk away with a strong sense of urgency:
- 1) The Investor guy: Show your risk taking guts and make a move now, before the crowds jump in. That’s vision. 2) Consumer Electronics manufacturers: If you are not in the game today…it might be too late for building so you better snatch a startup! 3) Smart Glasses Startups: Of course focus on a great product, but don’t forget: Platforms always win. 4) Software Companies: Start working on the content! It’s totally different than anything you have done before so you better get there first. 5)…The entire ecosystem: The window of opportunity is open for the next 10 months. So jump in – head first! [Pause] These were the highlights. To really dig into it and understand the drivers, you should definitely take a look at:
- The report. 37 pages of dense information and insights. The report goes for $799 (about 500 pounds) But today, just for you, We offer a special discount for just [click] 99 pounds or ($150) You can get it in our booth, Or go online to Augmentedreality.Org. You can already see many of these vendors here today. And there will be more progress and more excitement by next June at:
- Augmented world expo, the world’s largest event dedicated to Augmented Reality. We expect 3000 attendees, and every major player will be there! If you wish to exhibit, speak, or attend – talk to me! Our booth is right outside this room.
- Thank You!