Disruptive Technology Outlook for 2011


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Presentation on February 17, 2011 that provides a framework for companies to evaluate and prioritize disruptive technologies.

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Disruptive Technology Outlook for 2011

  1. 1. 1<br />February 17, 2011<br />Charlene Li<br />Founder and Partner<br />Hot Or Not: Disruptive Technologies To Watch in 2011<br />
  2. 2. 2<br />Source: Wordle.net<br />
  3. 3. 3<br />Prioritizing disruptions that matter<br />User Experience<br /><ul><li>Is it easy for people to use?
  4. 4. Does it enable people to connect in new ways?</li></ul>Business Model<br /><ul><li>Does it tap new revenue streams?
  5. 5. Is it done at a lower cost?</li></ul>Ecosystem Value<br /><ul><li>Does it change the flow of value?
  6. 6. Does it shift power from one player to another?</li></li></ul><li>“How personal relationships, individual opinions, powerful storytelling and social capital are helping brands…become more believable.”<br />1) Likenomics (credit to RohitBhargava)<br />4<br />Understand the supply, demand, and thus, value of Likes as social currency<br />See http://bit.ly/rohit-likenomics for Rohit’s take<br />
  7. 7. Likenomics evaluation<br />5<br />User experience impact - moderate<br />People with high social currency will enjoy benefits, richer experiences, receive psychic income.<br />People with low social currency will find ways to get it.<br />Business model impact – moderate<br />New economics create opportunity for people who understand Likenomics to leverage gas.<br />The cost of accessing social currency will increase, and raise barriers to entry.<br />Ecosystem value impact – none<br />
  8. 8. Special deals for special people<br />Group Buying, Flash Sales, Member Sales, etc.<br />Gilt, Ruelala, iDeeli, Facebook Deals<br />Local sales and retailers<br />Group buying variation: Groupon and Living Social<br />In-store check-ins: Shopkick and Checkpoints<br />Dynamic pricing<br />Off and Away and Swoopo<br />Mobile price checking<br />Amazon mobile apps, eBay platform<br />New payment methods: Square and Facebook Credits<br />2) Buy 2.0<br />6<br />
  9. 9. How shopping will change<br />7<br />Store knows it’s me<br />I walk into the store<br />And maps out planned and promoted products<br />
  10. 10. Buy 2.0 evaluation<br />8<br />User experience impact - High<br />New ways to buy and connect with each other and retailers.<br />Business model impact – Moderate<br />Acquisition costs can increase/decrease substantially with adoption.<br />Increased noise/clutter requires more marketing.<br />Ecosystem value impact – Moderate<br />New entrants like GroupOn become intermediaries.<br />
  11. 11. 9<br />3) Social Search – Beyond Friends<br />Social sharing rises as a search ranking signal, esp in the enterprise<br />Create a social content hub to gain traction<br />Use microformats to highlight granularity (e.g. hProduct & hReview)<br />
  12. 12. Social Search evaluation<br />10<br />User experience impact - Moderate<br />Search becomes more useful, relevant to people.<br />Business model impact – Moderate<br />SEO takes on a different dimension, rewards companies with social currency, personalized experiences.<br />Ecosystem value impact – Moderate<br />New power brokers are social data/profile players who capture activity data and profiles.<br />Google has little of either.<br />
  13. 13. Social monitoring merges with Web analytics<br />HOT: Omniture, Coremetrics/IBM, Webtrends<br />Technology like Hadoop makes it easy for companies to tap “Big Data”<br />E.g. New York Times making its archives public<br />Twitter archived by Library of Congress<br />Facebook Cassandra, Amazon Dynamo, Google BigTable<br />Data visualization tools make it easy to digest<br />Balancing privacy and personalization<br />4) Big Data<br />11<br />
  14. 14. Big Data evaluation<br />12<br />User experience impact - Low<br />Most users won’t directly experience Big Data.<br />Business model impact – High<br />New businesses and initiatives can be started at very low cost.<br />Ecosystem value impact – Moderate<br />Owners of Big Data repositories can assert control, demand payments for access.<br />
  15. 15. 13<br />5) Enterprise Social Networking<br />
  16. 16. Enterprise Social Networking evaluation<br />14<br />User experience impact – High<br />Work gets social, employees get connected to each other. <br />Business model impact – Moderate<br />Work gets done faster, cheaper.<br />New organizational structures and cultures emerge.<br />Ecosystem value impact – Moderate<br />Traditional enterprise application players face new, more nimble entrants.<br />
  17. 17. 15<br />6) Game-ification<br />
  18. 18. TurboTaxused “games” to encourage sharing and support<br />16<br />Social design can enter training, collaboration, support, hiring<br />
  19. 19. Gamification evaluation<br />17<br />User experience impact – High<br />Experiences get richer, more engaging<br />Business model impact – Moderate<br />Work gets done faster, cheaper.<br />New organizational structures and cultures emerge.<br />Ecosystem value impact – Low<br />Service providers will remain focused, boutique firms.<br />
  20. 20. 18<br />7) Print extensions<br />QR Codes<br />Imagine images as Bit.ly codes<br />
  21. 21. Print extensions evaluation<br />19<br />User experience impact – Moderate<br />Users get new ways to get information quickly.<br />No need to download special software, understand quirky images. <br />Business model impact – Moderate<br />Leverage print investment to extend further into buying process.<br />Impacts importance of SEO. <br />Ecosystem value impact – Low<br />Standards, not new service providers, play a role.<br />
  22. 22. Print extensions evaluation<br />20<br />User experience impact – Moderate<br />Users get new power, earn social status, when they become curators.<br />Business model impact – Moderate<br />Lower cost of acquisition. <br />Ecosystem value impact – Moderate<br />Standards, not new service providers, play a role.<br />
  23. 23. 8)DIY and Co-creation<br />21<br />
  24. 24. DIY an Co-creation evaluation<br />22<br />User experience impact – Moderate<br />Users become more loyal/engaged with organizations that invite them in. <br />Develop a sense of shared ownership in the success of the organization. <br />Business model impact – High<br />Reduced merchandising costs.<br />Reduced marketing costs due to viral loop.<br />Ecosystem value impact – Low<br />Mostly home-grown, internal development.<br />
  25. 25. 23<br />9) Curation<br />
  26. 26. Curation evaluation<br />24<br />User experience impact – Moderate<br />Users gain new power as market influencers.<br />Business model impact – Low<br />Low unless tapped as part of Co-creation initiative.<br />Ecosystem value impact – Moderate<br />Power shifts to users who steal attention and loyalty from established players.<br />
  27. 27. 25<br />Not Hot Yet in 2011: Augmented Reality<br />When scanning tech improves, will get hot<br />
  28. 28. Augmented Reality evaluation<br />26<br />User experience impact – Moderate<br />Still hard to use, limited availability.<br />But when available, creates unique, new experience.<br />Business model impact – Low<br />Unclear if new experiences lower costs, raise revenues.<br />Ecosystem value impact – Low<br />Few intermediaries emerge in new experiences. <br />Usually home-grown.<br />
  29. 29. 27<br />To Watch: Quora – Quality Q&A?<br />Monitor your brand<br />Engage by being helpful<br />
  30. 30. Summary of disruptions<br />28<br />
  31. 31. Bonus #1: Transparency<br />
  32. 32. 30<br />Bonus #2: Leadership<br />How to be out of control and still in command<br />
  33. 33. It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives.<br />It is the one that is most adaptable to change. <br />- Charles Darwin<br />Preparing for disruption<br />31<br />
  34. 34. Charlene Li<br />charlene@altimetergroup.com<br />charleneli.com/blog<br />Twitter: charleneli<br />For slides, send an email to slides@altimetergroup.com<br />For more information & to buy the book<br />visit open-leadership.com<br />© 2010 Altimeter Group<br />
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