The Congressional Budget Office briefing discusses projections for the US budget and economy from 2018 to 2028. Deficits are projected to increase in the next few years before stabilizing above their 50-year average throughout the period. Real GDP growth is projected to average 1.9% over the period, with the 2017 tax act providing a temporary boost averaging 0.7% annually. Accumulating deficits will cause federal debt held by the public to rise from 78% of GDP currently to 96% by 2028, the highest level since 1946.

1. Congressional Budget Office
A Briefing for the Press at CBO
April 9, 2018
Keith Hall
Director
An Overview of
The Budget and Economic Outlook:
2018 to 2028
For more details, see www.cbo.gov/publication/53651.

2. 1
CBO
Deficits as a percentage of gross domestic product are projected to
increase over the next few years and then largely stabilize. They exceed
their 50-year average throughout the 2018–2028 period.

3. 2
CBO
In CBO’s projections, real GDP growth and real potential GDP growth
average 1.9 percent over the 2018–2028 period, even though real GDP
grows more rapidly at first.

4. 3
CBO
The increase in the level of real GDP stemming from the 2017 tax act
averages 0.7 percent over the 2018–2028 period in CBO’s projections.
Later in the period, the effects are tempered as some tax provisions expire
and as increased borrowing crowds out private investment.

5. 4
CBO
As deficits accumulate in CBO’s projections, federal debt held by the
public rises from 78 percent of GDP (or $16 trillion) at the end of 2018 to
96 percent of GDP (or $29 trillion) by 2028. That percentage would be the
largest since 1946 and well more than twice the average over the past five
decades.

6. 5
CBO
Under current law, revenues would be roughly flat relative to the size of
the economy over the next several years and then would rise steadily in
the second half of the projection period as a number of tax provisions
expired. Outlays would increase in most years through 2028.