0
SOME TRENDS INFLUENCING
PEOPLE & USE OF TECHNOLOGY
Kate Carruthers
April 2009
Who Me?

Marketer,
technologist,
educator, law student
and renaissance
woman

www.katecarruthers.com

www.siliconfederatio...
“Innovation
 always comes
 unexpectedly &
 from the
 periphery.”


             © 2009 Kate Carruthers
                   ...
A few interesting things about web 2.0:
• It is not new technology
• It is new ways of using older technology
• It is not ...
Let‟s think about what is coming next for the
web…
– What are some of the drivers of innovation?
– What are some of the en...
Macro Trends
                    • Next Generation Internet – semantics, contextual, geo-
    Internet          aware


  ...
Context & Issues

                   Political




Legal                                         Economic




Environmenta...
Context & Issues
      e.g. censorship                                                         e.g. global
               ...
Key Considerations

Technical                              Business
• Hardware                             • Security & id...
Speed of Change

The rate of change is increasing & this is evident in the example
of the telephone. It did not change for...
Speed of Change
       Examples of speedy changes that are shifting use by ordinary people and
       their expectations o...
Generations

It is interesting to overlay the speed of change against the theory
of generations. The idea goes that each a...
Generations?

“ I fundamentally disagree
  with the idea that mere
  membership of an age
  cohort determines a
  person‟s...
Generations?

“ What will become a
  determining factor is
  not membership of
  an age cohort, rather
  it is one‟s willi...
Generations?

“ The willingness &
  desire to be
  hyperconnected via
  technology will
  become the new
  generation gap....
SOME FORCES FOR CHANGE


           © 2009 Kate Carruthers
                                    16
           www.katecarru...
Changes in Consumption




Hitwise, Social networks overtake webmail, November 06, 2007
http://weblogs.hitwise.com/robin-g...
Changes in Consumption




Hitwise, Social networks overtake webmail, November 06, 2007
http://weblogs.hitwise.com/robin-g...
Changes in Consumption




Hitwise, Social networks overtake Adult sites, Jan 2009
http://weblogs.hitwise.com/robin-goad/2...
Social Computing




                                       © 2009 Kate Carruthers
Source: XCD http://xkcd.com/256/       ...
Source: Brian Solis http://www.flickr.com/photos/briansolis/2735401175/sizes/l
                                           ...
Social Computing

• Change is the only
  constant
• Ordinary people are
  co-opting web
  technology in
  unplanned,
  uno...
Source: Christopher S. Penn http://www.christopherspenn.com/2008/09/04/social-media-and-new-media-are-not-the-same/




Sh...
Hyperconnectivity


Not 6 degrees of
 separation

Perhaps only
  1 degree?




               Source: http://www.popsci.co...
Hyperconnectivity


Social networking is
crashing the degrees of
separation between
individuals




                      ...
Consumption On-Demand

• No more waiting

• What I want

• When I want it




                     http://www.techcrunch.c...
Tribal Brains

• Wired to deal with
  smaller groups

• Wired for small
  chunks of information

• Magical number 7



   ...
Tribal Creatures

• Tribe size

• Dunbar‟s number = 150

• We mesh into
  subgroups based on
  common interests

• Increas...
Chunking

          • Growth of knowledge

          • Too much knowledge
            to keep in our heads

          • No...
• In the distant past we used techniques like epic
  poetry to share important knowledge
• Then we graduated to books
• An...
Not generational conflict, rather
connectivity conflict
               © 2009 Kate Carruthers
                            ...
Boundaries

• Time

• Place

• Content

• Authority

               Source: http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Image:Hadria...
Boundaries

• We are dealing with a • Many of these people
  radically different set were socialised in the
  of expectati...
We are dealing with:
• Issues about boundaries in relation to people,
  process & technology
• Different perspectives on w...
We can expect debates about:
• Appropriate times and places of consumption of
  new media
• Appropriate levels of control ...
Boundaries

• Defining boundaries in a
  hyperconnected world is a
  challenge

• But interesting discoveries are
  made a...
Some interesting questions:

•   What about the role of authority?
•   Who has it & why?
•   How do we feel about that?
• ...
© 2009 Kate Carruthers
                         38
www.katecarruthers.com
The rules are changing
We‟re not in control any
  more. This brings
    opportunities!



         © 2009 Kate Carruthers
...
SOME NEW TECHNOLOGY HEADING
OUR WAY
          © 2009 Kate Carruthers
                                   40
          www.k...
• Accessible to ordinary people not just specialists
  or large companies
• Commoditization driving prices down further
• ...
New Technology


                                                                Affordable RFID chips
                   ...
Wearable
computing
- e.g. shoes that
report back on
you



                       Devices That Tell On You: The Nike+iPod ...
GPS chips that
give an accurate
location fix from
indoors




                    Source: Engadget
                    htt...
Keeping the
ageing baby
boomer
population at
home longer



                Joseph Hayduk, 86, who suffers from congestive...
New Interfaces

                •       Gesture interfaces
                •       Acoustic input
                •       ...
New Interfaces




Purdue University 2004: nanoworkbench capable of providing real-time
perceptualization of the mechanica...
New Interfaces




Commercially available 2007
                                                                           ...
New Interfaces

                • Clothing that senses
                  our emotions

                • This jacket lets ...
New Interfaces

                • GUI → TUI

                • Moves from Graphical
                  to Tangible User
   ...
Hardware
                                                              •    Hard disk density
                            ...
Hardware

                             • Blades
                             • Virtualization
                            ...
Amazon Web
Services
Google App Engine
Microsoft Azure
Rackspace Mosso
ServePath GoGrid
                             Sample...
THE BIGGEST SHIFT


            © 2009 Kate Carruthers
                                     54
            www.katecarruth...
The Biggest Shift

                                                                                               “… the s...
The Biggest Shift

                                                                                          “… it means
 ...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Trends People Tech Apr09

1,031

Published on

Thoughts on some trends influencing people & use of technology

Published in: Technology, Business
0 Comments
4 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
1,031
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
73
Comments
0
Likes
4
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Transcript of "Trends People Tech Apr09"

  1. 1. SOME TRENDS INFLUENCING PEOPLE & USE OF TECHNOLOGY Kate Carruthers April 2009
  2. 2. Who Me? Marketer, technologist, educator, law student and renaissance woman www.katecarruthers.com www.siliconfederation.com © 2009 Kate Carruthers 2 www.katecarruthers.com
  3. 3. “Innovation always comes unexpectedly & from the periphery.” © 2009 Kate Carruthers 3 www.katecarruthers.com
  4. 4. A few interesting things about web 2.0: • It is not new technology • It is new ways of using older technology • It is not using the old mindset where technology was the province of gurus • It is democratizing technology • It is applying new business models © 2009 Kate Carruthers 4 www.katecarruthers.com
  5. 5. Let‟s think about what is coming next for the web… – What are some of the drivers of innovation? – What are some of the enablers of innovation? – What are some of the important social & cultural aspects? © 2009 Kate Carruthers 5 www.katecarruthers.com
  6. 6. Macro Trends • Next Generation Internet – semantics, contextual, geo- Internet aware • New interfaces – gesture, haptic, auditory, human- Interfaces computer, voice user interfaces • Virtualization , cloud computing enabled by solid state Hardware drives, blade technology Social Computing • It’s here and it will continue to grow Ubiquitous • Wearable, networks, convergence Computing © 2009 Kate Carruthers 6 www.katecarruthers.com
  7. 7. Context & Issues Political Legal Economic Environmental Social © 2009 Kate Carruthers 7 www.katecarruthers.com
  8. 8. Context & Issues e.g. censorship e.g. global Political of internet financial crisis Legal Economic e.g. copyright & intellectual property e.g. growth of social Environmental computing & Social e.g. green the digital computing & divide climate change © 2009 Kate Carruthers 8 www.katecarruthers.com
  9. 9. Key Considerations Technical Business • Hardware • Security & identity management • Software • Privacy & Censorship • Infrastructure • Legal & Copyright • Metadata • Governance & the – Taxonomies „Shadow‟ IT dept – Ontologies – • Resources & Skills Folksonomies – RDF, FOAF, XML, RSS, • Outsourcing & Support API, etc. © 2009 Kate Carruthers 9 www.katecarruthers.com
  10. 10. Speed of Change The rate of change is increasing & this is evident in the example of the telephone. It did not change for almost 100 years & now it changes every 3 months. © 2009 Kate Carruthers 10 www.katecarruthers.com
  11. 11. Speed of Change Examples of speedy changes that are shifting use by ordinary people and their expectations of technology: “iPhone “Skype now maker Apple the world's increased its largest market share international from 2.7% in voice carrier” 2007 to 8.2% in 2008 Source: Market Share: Smartphones Worldwide 2008 Source: http://www.itwire.com/content/view/24043/127/ http://www.smartcompany.com.au/telecommunications/iph 25-Mar-2009 one-and-blackberry-take-market-share-from-nokia.html © 2009 Kate Carruthers 11 www.katecarruthers.com
  12. 12. Generations It is interesting to overlay the speed of change against the theory of generations. The idea goes that each age cohort has a particular relationship to technology & change adoption. © 2009 Kate Carruthers 12 www.katecarruthers.com
  13. 13. Generations? “ I fundamentally disagree with the idea that mere membership of an age cohort determines a person‟s relationship to technology or to change adoption.” © 2009 Kate Carruthers 13 www.katecarruthers.com
  14. 14. Generations? “ What will become a determining factor is not membership of an age cohort, rather it is one‟s willingness to be connected.” Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/frotzed/1700990750/ © 2009 Kate Carruthers 14 www.katecarruthers.com
  15. 15. Generations? “ The willingness & desire to be hyperconnected via technology will become the new generation gap.” Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/frotzed/1700990750/ © 2009 Kate Carruthers 15 www.katecarruthers.com
  16. 16. SOME FORCES FOR CHANGE © 2009 Kate Carruthers 16 www.katecarruthers.com
  17. 17. Changes in Consumption Hitwise, Social networks overtake webmail, November 06, 2007 http://weblogs.hitwise.com/robin-goad/2007/11/social_networks_overtake_webma.html © 2009 Kate Carruthers 17 www.katecarruthers.com
  18. 18. Changes in Consumption Hitwise, Social networks overtake webmail, November 06, 2007 http://weblogs.hitwise.com/robin-goad/2007/11/social_networks_overtake_webma.html ` © 2009 Kate Carruthers 18 www.katecarruthers.com
  19. 19. Changes in Consumption Hitwise, Social networks overtake Adult sites, Jan 2009 http://weblogs.hitwise.com/robin-goad/2009/01/social_networks_overtake_adult_websites.html © 2009 Kate Carruthers 19 www.katecarruthers.com
  20. 20. Social Computing © 2009 Kate Carruthers Source: XCD http://xkcd.com/256/ 20 www.katecarruthers.com
  21. 21. Source: Brian Solis http://www.flickr.com/photos/briansolis/2735401175/sizes/l © 2009 Kate Carruthers 21 www.katecarruthers.com
  22. 22. Social Computing • Change is the only constant • Ordinary people are co-opting web technology in unplanned, unorganised & unexpected ways Source: XCD http://xkcd.com/256/ © 2009 Kate Carruthers 22 www.katecarruthers.com
  23. 23. Source: Christopher S. Penn http://www.christopherspenn.com/2008/09/04/social-media-and-new-media-are-not-the-same/ Shift from passive consumption to active acquisition of media © 2009 Kate Carruthers 23 www.katecarruthers.com
  24. 24. Hyperconnectivity Not 6 degrees of separation Perhaps only 1 degree? Source: http://www.popsci.com.au/files/imagecache/article_image_large/files/articles/734px-Six_degrees_of_separation.jpg © 2009 Kate Carruthers 24 www.katecarruthers.com
  25. 25. Hyperconnectivity Social networking is crashing the degrees of separation between individuals Source: http://twitter.com/TurnbullMalcolm 11 Apr 09 © 2009 Kate Carruthers 25 www.katecarruthers.com
  26. 26. Consumption On-Demand • No more waiting • What I want • When I want it http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/12/17/bittorrent-is-now-streaming-movies-with-ads-but-wheres-the-good- stuff/ © 2009 Kate Carruthers 26 www.katecarruthers.com
  27. 27. Tribal Brains • Wired to deal with smaller groups • Wired for small chunks of information • Magical number 7 © 2009 Kate Carruthers 27 www.katecarruthers.com
  28. 28. Tribal Creatures • Tribe size • Dunbar‟s number = 150 • We mesh into subgroups based on common interests • Increasingly loose ties Source: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/99/Maasai_tribe.jpg © 2009 Kate Carruthers 28 www.katecarruthers.com
  29. 29. Chunking • Growth of knowledge • Too much knowledge to keep in our heads • No more epic poetry Source: http://www.familycourtchronicles.com/philosophy/spartan/spartan-brad-pitt.jpg © 2009 Kate Carruthers 29 www.katecarruthers.com
  30. 30. • In the distant past we used techniques like epic poetry to share important knowledge • Then we graduated to books • And then to hypertext • NOW WE HAVE TOO MUCH INFORMATION! Challenges today are filtering, ordering & adding meaning to information © 2009 Kate Carruthers 30 www.katecarruthers.com
  31. 31. Not generational conflict, rather connectivity conflict © 2009 Kate Carruthers 31 www.katecarruthers.com
  32. 32. Boundaries • Time • Place • Content • Authority Source: http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Image:Hadrians_wall_Greenhead.jpg © 2009 Kate Carruthers 32 www.katecarruthers.com
  33. 33. Boundaries • We are dealing with a • Many of these people radically different set were socialised in the of expectations – from old non-digital world; our staff, suppliers & while others are consumers digital natives It’s going to be an interesting balancing act between those different sets of expectations © 2009 Kate Carruthers 33 www.katecarruthers.com
  34. 34. We are dealing with: • Issues about boundaries in relation to people, process & technology • Different perspectives on what the boundaries are • Questions about if the boundaries exist at all Battle is between centralised authority & growing power of individuals/smaller groups © 2009 Kate Carruthers 34 www.katecarruthers.com
  35. 35. We can expect debates about: • Appropriate times and places of consumption of new media • Appropriate levels of control over the content • Who has the authority to decide all of this “The Net interprets censorship as damage and routes around it.” – John Gilmore © 2009 Kate Carruthers 35 www.katecarruthers.com
  36. 36. Boundaries • Defining boundaries in a hyperconnected world is a challenge • But interesting discoveries are made at the boundaries of the currently known world © 2009 Kate Carruthers 36 www.katecarruthers.com
  37. 37. Some interesting questions: • What about the role of authority? • Who has it & why? • How do we feel about that? • Is it generational? © 2009 Kate Carruthers 37 www.katecarruthers.com
  38. 38. © 2009 Kate Carruthers 38 www.katecarruthers.com
  39. 39. The rules are changing We‟re not in control any more. This brings opportunities! © 2009 Kate Carruthers 39 www.katecarruthers.com
  40. 40. SOME NEW TECHNOLOGY HEADING OUR WAY © 2009 Kate Carruthers 40 www.katecarruthers.com
  41. 41. • Accessible to ordinary people not just specialists or large companies • Commoditization driving prices down further • Ubiquitous & easy to use • Not requiring high levels of specialised technical knowledge © 2009 Kate Carruthers 41 www.katecarruthers.com
  42. 42. New Technology Affordable RFID chips enabling the internet of things Source: http://www.touchatag.com/ © 2009 Kate Carruthers 42 www.katecarruthers.com
  43. 43. Wearable computing - e.g. shoes that report back on you Devices That Tell On You: The Nike+iPod Sport Kit http://www.cs.washington.edu/research/systems/privacy.html © 2009 Kate Carruthers 43 www.katecarruthers.com
  44. 44. GPS chips that give an accurate location fix from indoors Source: Engadget http://www.engadget.com/2009/02/12/epsons-tiny-gps-receiver-will-make-everything-location-aware/ © 2009 Kate Carruthers 44 www.katecarruthers.com
  45. 45. Keeping the ageing baby boomer population at home longer Joseph Hayduk, 86, who suffers from congestive heart failure, transmits his clinical vital signs everyday via a quot;HomMed Health Monitoring Systemquot; to a Meridian Home Care office where a registered nurse tracks his health. Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/13/us/13senior.html?em © 2009 Kate Carruthers 45 www.katecarruthers.com
  46. 46. New Interfaces • Gesture interfaces • Acoustic input • Touch screens • Haptic interfaces • Voice UI Source: http://www.nickhodge.com/blog/archives/2606 © 2009 Kate Carruthers 46 www.katecarruthers.com
  47. 47. New Interfaces Purdue University 2004: nanoworkbench capable of providing real-time perceptualization of the mechanical properties, such as stiffness, adhesion or friction, of a nanoscale object during positioning or manipulation Source: http://www.ecn.purdue.edu/HIRL/ Sahara Touch-iT Tablet i200 Black © 2009 Kate Carruthers 47 www.katecarruthers.com
  48. 48. New Interfaces Commercially available 2007 Gesture Computer Interface Device Developed For Surgeons 2008 http://www.gtec.at/products/g.MOBIlab/gMOBIlabPocketPC.htm http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/06/080616101137.htm © 2009 Kate Carruthers 48 www.katecarruthers.com
  49. 49. New Interfaces • Clothing that senses our emotions • This jacket lets you feel the movies Source: http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/mar09/8287 IEEE-sponsored 2009 World Haptics Conference 2009 © 2009 Kate Carruthers 49 www.katecarruthers.com
  50. 50. New Interfaces • GUI → TUI • Moves from Graphical to Tangible User Interface Source: http://tacolab.com/projects/Siftables © 2009 Kate Carruthers 50 www.katecarruthers.com
  51. 51. Hardware • Hard disk density • Solid state drives • Batteries • Robotics go mainstream Source: http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/mar09/8367 Source: http://www.maniacworld.com/cat-loves-his-roomba.html © 2009 Kate Carruthers 51 www.katecarruthers.com
  52. 52. Hardware • Blades • Virtualization • Cloud computing/ Grid computing/ Utility computing Dell cluster © 2009 Kate Carruthers 52 www.katecarruthers.com
  53. 53. Amazon Web Services Google App Engine Microsoft Azure Rackspace Mosso ServePath GoGrid Sample cloud architecture http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/79/CloudComputingSampleArchi tecture.svg/400px-CloudComputingSampleArchitecture.svg.png © 2009 Kate Carruthers 53 www.katecarruthers.com
  54. 54. THE BIGGEST SHIFT © 2009 Kate Carruthers 54 www.katecarruthers.com
  55. 55. The Biggest Shift “… the shift towards the individual as the centre of a network of relationships mediated & enabled by technology …” Source: Kevin Kelly, http://www.kk.org/thetechnium/archives/2007/11/four_stages_in.php © 2009 Kate Carruthers 55 www.katecarruthers.com
  56. 56. The Biggest Shift “… it means decentralisation of power from the old authorities to a new model – & we do not yet know what that new model will be.” Source: MIT's Technology Review: Mapping the Internet., http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/images/2007/06/22/net_periphery.jpg © 2009 Kate Carruthers 56 www.katecarruthers.com
  1. A particular slide catching your eye?

    Clipping is a handy way to collect important slides you want to go back to later.

×