Trends People Tech Apr09

SOME TRENDS INFLUENCING PEOPLE & USE OF TECHNOLOGY Kate Carruthers April 2009

A few interesting things about web 2.0: • It is not new technology • It is new ways of using older technology • It is not using the old mindset where technology was the province of gurus • It is democratizing technology • It is applying new business models © 2009 Kate Carruthers 4 www.katecarruthers.com

Let‟s think about what is coming next for the web… – What are some of the drivers of innovation? – What are some of the enablers of innovation? – What are some of the important social & cultural aspects? © 2009 Kate Carruthers 5 www.katecarruthers.com

Macro Trends • Next Generation Internet – semantics, contextual, geo- Internet aware • New interfaces – gesture, haptic, auditory, human- Interfaces computer, voice user interfaces • Virtualization , cloud computing enabled by solid state Hardware drives, blade technology Social Computing • It’s here and it will continue to grow Ubiquitous • Wearable, networks, convergence Computing © 2009 Kate Carruthers 6 www.katecarruthers.com

Context & Issues e.g. censorship e.g. global Political of internet financial crisis Legal Economic e.g. copyright & intellectual property e.g. growth of social Environmental computing & Social e.g. green the digital computing & divide climate change © 2009 Kate Carruthers 8 www.katecarruthers.com

Key Considerations Technical Business • Hardware • Security & identity management • Software • Privacy & Censorship • Infrastructure • Legal & Copyright • Metadata • Governance & the – Taxonomies „Shadow‟ IT dept – Ontologies – • Resources & Skills Folksonomies – RDF, FOAF, XML, RSS, • Outsourcing & Support API, etc. © 2009 Kate Carruthers 9 www.katecarruthers.com

Speed of Change The rate of change is increasing & this is evident in the example of the telephone. It did not change for almost 100 years & now it changes every 3 months. © 2009 Kate Carruthers 10 www.katecarruthers.com

Speed of Change Examples of speedy changes that are shifting use by ordinary people and their expectations of technology: “iPhone “Skype now maker Apple the world's increased its largest market share international from 2.7% in voice carrier” 2007 to 8.2% in 2008 Source: Market Share: Smartphones Worldwide 2008 Source: http://www.itwire.com/content/view/24043/127/ http://www.smartcompany.com.au/telecommunications/iph 25-Mar-2009 one-and-blackberry-take-market-share-from-nokia.html © 2009 Kate Carruthers 11 www.katecarruthers.com

Generations It is interesting to overlay the speed of change against the theory of generations. The idea goes that each age cohort has a particular relationship to technology & change adoption. © 2009 Kate Carruthers 12 www.katecarruthers.com

Generations? “ I fundamentally disagree with the idea that mere membership of an age cohort determines a person‟s relationship to technology or to change adoption.” © 2009 Kate Carruthers 13 www.katecarruthers.com

Generations? “ What will become a determining factor is not membership of an age cohort, rather it is one‟s willingness to be connected.” Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/frotzed/1700990750/ © 2009 Kate Carruthers 14 www.katecarruthers.com

Generations? “ The willingness & desire to be hyperconnected via technology will become the new generation gap.” Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/frotzed/1700990750/ © 2009 Kate Carruthers 15 www.katecarruthers.com

Changes in Consumption Hitwise, Social networks overtake webmail, November 06, 2007 http://weblogs.hitwise.com/robin-goad/2007/11/social_networks_overtake_webma.html © 2009 Kate Carruthers 17 www.katecarruthers.com

Changes in Consumption Hitwise, Social networks overtake webmail, November 06, 2007 http://weblogs.hitwise.com/robin-goad/2007/11/social_networks_overtake_webma.html ` © 2009 Kate Carruthers 18 www.katecarruthers.com

Changes in Consumption Hitwise, Social networks overtake Adult sites, Jan 2009 http://weblogs.hitwise.com/robin-goad/2009/01/social_networks_overtake_adult_websites.html © 2009 Kate Carruthers 19 www.katecarruthers.com

Social Computing • Change is the only constant • Ordinary people are co-opting web technology in unplanned, unorganised & unexpected ways Source: XCD http://xkcd.com/256/ © 2009 Kate Carruthers 22 www.katecarruthers.com

Source: Christopher S. Penn http://www.christopherspenn.com/2008/09/04/social-media-and-new-media-are-not-the-same/ Shift from passive consumption to active acquisition of media © 2009 Kate Carruthers 23 www.katecarruthers.com

Hyperconnectivity Not 6 degrees of separation Perhaps only 1 degree? Source: http://www.popsci.com.au/files/imagecache/article_image_large/files/articles/734px-Six_degrees_of_separation.jpg © 2009 Kate Carruthers 24 www.katecarruthers.com

Consumption On-Demand • No more waiting • What I want • When I want it http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/12/17/bittorrent-is-now-streaming-movies-with-ads-but-wheres-the-good- stuff/ © 2009 Kate Carruthers 26 www.katecarruthers.com

Tribal Creatures • Tribe size • Dunbar‟s number = 150 • We mesh into subgroups based on common interests • Increasingly loose ties Source: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/99/Maasai_tribe.jpg © 2009 Kate Carruthers 28 www.katecarruthers.com

Chunking • Growth of knowledge • Too much knowledge to keep in our heads • No more epic poetry Source: http://www.familycourtchronicles.com/philosophy/spartan/spartan-brad-pitt.jpg © 2009 Kate Carruthers 29 www.katecarruthers.com

• In the distant past we used techniques like epic poetry to share important knowledge • Then we graduated to books • And then to hypertext • NOW WE HAVE TOO MUCH INFORMATION! Challenges today are filtering, ordering & adding meaning to information © 2009 Kate Carruthers 30 www.katecarruthers.com

Boundaries • We are dealing with a • Many of these people radically different set were socialised in the of expectations – from old non-digital world; our staff, suppliers & while others are consumers digital natives It’s going to be an interesting balancing act between those different sets of expectations © 2009 Kate Carruthers 33 www.katecarruthers.com

We are dealing with: • Issues about boundaries in relation to people, process & technology • Different perspectives on what the boundaries are • Questions about if the boundaries exist at all Battle is between centralised authority & growing power of individuals/smaller groups © 2009 Kate Carruthers 34 www.katecarruthers.com

We can expect debates about: • Appropriate times and places of consumption of new media • Appropriate levels of control over the content • Who has the authority to decide all of this “The Net interprets censorship as damage and routes around it.” – John Gilmore © 2009 Kate Carruthers 35 www.katecarruthers.com

Boundaries • Defining boundaries in a hyperconnected world is a challenge • But interesting discoveries are made at the boundaries of the currently known world © 2009 Kate Carruthers 36 www.katecarruthers.com

• Accessible to ordinary people not just specialists or large companies • Commoditization driving prices down further • Ubiquitous & easy to use • Not requiring high levels of specialised technical knowledge © 2009 Kate Carruthers 41 www.katecarruthers.com

Wearable computing - e.g. shoes that report back on you Devices That Tell On You: The Nike+iPod Sport Kit http://www.cs.washington.edu/research/systems/privacy.html © 2009 Kate Carruthers 43 www.katecarruthers.com

GPS chips that give an accurate location fix from indoors Source: Engadget http://www.engadget.com/2009/02/12/epsons-tiny-gps-receiver-will-make-everything-location-aware/ © 2009 Kate Carruthers 44 www.katecarruthers.com

Keeping the ageing baby boomer population at home longer Joseph Hayduk, 86, who suffers from congestive heart failure, transmits his clinical vital signs everyday via a \"HomMed Health Monitoring System\" to a Meridian Home Care office where a registered nurse tracks his health. Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/13/us/13senior.html?em © 2009 Kate Carruthers 45 www.katecarruthers.com

New Interfaces Purdue University 2004: nanoworkbench capable of providing real-time perceptualization of the mechanical properties, such as stiffness, adhesion or friction, of a nanoscale object during positioning or manipulation Source: http://www.ecn.purdue.edu/HIRL/ Sahara Touch-iT Tablet i200 Black © 2009 Kate Carruthers 47 www.katecarruthers.com

New Interfaces Commercially available 2007 Gesture Computer Interface Device Developed For Surgeons 2008 http://www.gtec.at/products/g.MOBIlab/gMOBIlabPocketPC.htm http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/06/080616101137.htm © 2009 Kate Carruthers 48 www.katecarruthers.com

New Interfaces • Clothing that senses our emotions • This jacket lets you feel the movies Source: http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/mar09/8287 IEEE-sponsored 2009 World Haptics Conference 2009 © 2009 Kate Carruthers 49 www.katecarruthers.com

Hardware • Hard disk density • Solid state drives • Batteries • Robotics go mainstream Source: http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/mar09/8367 Source: http://www.maniacworld.com/cat-loves-his-roomba.html © 2009 Kate Carruthers 51 www.katecarruthers.com

Amazon Web Services Google App Engine Microsoft Azure Rackspace Mosso ServePath GoGrid Sample cloud architecture http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/79/CloudComputingSampleArchi tecture.svg/400px-CloudComputingSampleArchitecture.svg.png © 2009 Kate Carruthers 53 www.katecarruthers.com

The Biggest Shift “… the shift towards the individual as the centre of a network of relationships mediated & enabled by technology …” Source: Kevin Kelly, http://www.kk.org/thetechnium/archives/2007/11/four_stages_in.php © 2009 Kate Carruthers 55 www.katecarruthers.com

The Biggest Shift “… it means decentralisation of power from the old authorities to a new model – & we do not yet know what that new model will be.” Source: MIT's Technology Review: Mapping the Internet., http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/images/2007/06/22/net_periphery.jpg © 2009 Kate Carruthers 56 www.katecarruthers.com

Trends People Tech Apr09

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Notes on slide 1

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