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How Your Data Can Predict The Future

by Becky Wang

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Today, we have data – lots of it. We can process information – in many ways. And with these two tools and a little bit of creativity, we are discovering the vast depths of human behavior and by extension, a way to accurately predict the future -- and our future happiness. In fact, we can quantify human movement, behaviors, desires, and even moods on a scale that wasn’t possible before a series of advances in processing power, developments in psychology and social network science, and most importantly, access to data.
In advertising, industry, and humanity, we have experienced the evolution from Web 1.0 (informational) to Web 2.0 (platform) to Web 3.0 (semantic) to elements of Web 4.0 (anticipatory) – In this anticipatory era, what can we dream of next? Beyond addressability and increasing ad relevance, how can businesses utilize these advances in product development and other market initiatives? Can we make the leap from inductive logic to human-paralleled intuition? Can this make up for our human brain mechanics that make predicting our own happiness so difficult?
In this talk we’ll cover the evolutions in data access, models for information processing, and the science of collaboration to see not only how they have been leveraged in businesses but also how they are used to better understand human behavior, and hopefully in the near future, a little bit of happiness.

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How Your Data Can Predict The Future Presentation Transcript

How your data can predict the future Big Data Neural Networks & Prediction Markets #happydata @gnostica March 10, 2012Becky Wang Twitter.com/gnosticaSaatchiNY Head of Insights & Analytics / Director of Digital Linkedin.com/in/gnostica

THEFUTURE `THAT FITS

WHATYOU DOEQUALSDATA

Approaches to Reading Tools Ethics Prediction Resources 2 4 6 1 3 5 7 Use Case for Data and A PredictionWorld View Advertising Analytics Concepts About Data

WORLD VIEWOF DATA

World View of Data:“What is Big data?”"What is true and false – i.e., how we see theworld?”“Building Blocks”"How should we attain our goals?”"What should we do?""Where are we heading?”

“ Every time weblog, comment on one, usesend an email, post a perform a search, tweet, a cell phone, shop online, update our profile on a social networking site, use a credit card, or even go to the gym, we leave behind a mountain of data, a digital footprint, that provides a treasure trove of information . . . forming a ‘societal nervous system’ that is generating a cloud of data about “ people that is growing at an exponential rate – Frank Moss, former director, MIT Media Lab

The New York Times recently explainedBig Data as“ looking at that Big Analysis… information in novel ways to find new patterns “ for prediction

Cheryl Phillips of The Seattle Timesconcluded that“ transformative Big Data is the power of technology and “ storytelling

HAPPINESSMETRICS:YOURFEELINGSAS BIGDATA

SPREAD OF IDEAS

MOSAICTHEORY

SENTIMENT PROCEEDS OUTCOMESENTIMENTPROCEEDSOUTCOME

ACCESSTO DATA,TOOLS, &VISUALIZATION

DATA ASRELEVATION

ORREVOLUTION

OREXISTENTIAL DETERMINISM “Why Big Data won’t make you smart, pretty, or rich” – Fast Company, Daniel Rasmus

OVER- CONFIRMATION WHO MINDSCONFIDENCE BIAS / MOTIVES THE MODELS? INPUTFEEDBACK LACK OF CHANGES LOOPS MODELS (BECAUSE THE WORLD CHANGES)

PREDICT• WHERE YOU ARE LIKELY TO GO• WHAT MOVIE YOU WILL WATCH• WHAT ART YOU WILL BUY

DESCRIPTIVE > PREDICTIVE >PRESCRIPTIVE“How Companies Know Your Secrets” Feb 2012

CULTROMICS“Volume 16, Number 9”5 September 2011

Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich

APPROACHESTO PREDICTION

THE USE OF STATISTICALMODELS

EARTHQUAKE MODEL

GENETIC MODELS

MODELS +DATA

NEURAL NETWORKS

PREDICTIONMARKETS

USE CASE FORADVERTISING

SELF-GENERATEDBEHAVIOR CHANGE

Christoph Sebastian Deterdinghttp://codingconduct.cc/#2733848/The-MAO-Model-Research-for-Behavior-Change

ETHICS

Automating Research Changes the Definition of KnowledgeSIX Claims to Objectivity and AccuracyPROVOCATIONS are MisleadingOF DATA Bigger Data are Not Always Better Databy Not All Data Are EquivalentDanah Boyd Just Because it is Accessibleand Doesn’t Make it EthicalKate Crawford Limited Access to Big Data Creates New Digital Divides

PRIVACY OWNERSHIP CONTRIBUTION

DATA ANDANALYTICSCONCEPTS

DATA STORAGE CONCEPTSGoogle “Robert Scoble + Cloudera”

OBTAIN MODELCLEAN VISUALIZEEXPLORE INTERPRET

OBTAIN + CLEANhttps://bitly.com/bundles/hmason/1

EXPLORE

MODEL

INTERPRET aka WRANGLE

READING,TOOLS,RESOURCES

THOUGHT Daniel Rasmus Danah BoydLEADERS Kate Crawford Hilary Mason Alex Pentland Nicholas Christakis Andreas Weigand MIT Media Lab Scott Page Sebastian Deterding Charles Duhigg Opera Networks Cloudera Quantified Self Martin Binder

TOOLS + PLATFORMS

WHAT YOU’LL NEED FOR YOURSELFWhat you’ll need for yourself Understand how you work – how do you value rewards Monitoring software or data entry for the cue Software (understand the relationship between the cue and the routine) Visualization is key Iterate

AN ANALYTICS PRACTICE IN ACREATIVE ENVIRONMENT Business Intelligence and economics analysts A rolodex of model makers – anthropologists, editors, authors Open Data Tools – Palantir, Quid, Recorded Future Visualize to make the case A development environment at your desktop Creative team to prototype

A PREDICTIONABOUT DATA

DATA EXCHANGESOF BEHAVIOR,INTENTION — YOUWILL OWN IT

FURTHER DEBATEON OPEN VSCLOSED DATA

AN EXCHANGE FOR MODELS ANTHROPOLOGIS PSYCHOLOGISTS TEACHERS TS PHYSICIANS ECONOMISTS ARTISTS JOURNALISTS NOVELISTS TECHNOLOGISTS

INDUSTRIESTO BETRANSFORMED

THE BEST WAYTO PREDICTTHE FUTURE ISTO INVENT IT“ This is the century in which you can be proactive about the future; you dont have to be reactive. The whole idea of having scientists and technology is that “ those things you can envision and describe can actually be built. — Alan C. Kay, fellow at Apple Computer Inc.