Now, Next, Beyond
Version #1
Mark Holden, Head of Futures
@holdenmw
Why have we done this?
To make practical sense of change:
• Understand it.
• Prioritise based on likely impact to marketin...
2 important things first
1. Technology and behaviour are 2 sides of the same coin.
2 important things first
2. This is not futurology. The next wave is already here.
Internet: 50 years old Mobile: 30 years...
Now, Next, Beyond
Now
Next 12 months
Critical now
Next
Next 24 months
A rising tide
Beyond
Within 5 years
Clouds on the ho...
Why this framework? Technologies don’t disrupt evenly.
Source: McKinsey Global Institute
Now, Next, Beyond
Mobile in the customer journey
Beyond mobile
The (re)awakening of content
Internet of media
Multiscreen ...
Now
NOW/NEXT/BEYOND: TECHNOLOGY
TECHNOLOGY: Mobile across the customer journey
Source: Arena Media forecast (aggregate of penetration data)
Smartphone at ...
TECHNOLOGY: Mobile across the customer journey
Outside of search, mobile
advertising will take time to
mature – right now ...
TECHNOLOGY: Mobile across the customer journey
Source: Google; Mobile In-Store Research: How in-store shoppers are using m...
TECHNOLOGY: Mobile across the customer journey
Discovery Transaction Experience
Post-purchase /
loyalty
Mobile has a role ...
TECHNOLOGY: Beyond mobile
Source: Arena Media forecast (aggregate of penetration data)
Tablet at 40% penetration
by Dec 20...
TECHNOLOGY: Beyond mobile
51%
Tablet usage
with TV
35%
Mobile
usage with
TV
33%
Laptop /
desktop
usage with
TV
Source: IAB...
TECHNOLOGY: Beyond mobile
Tablets are primarily media consumption devices, often
in-home. Different behaviour from mobile,...
TECHNOLOGY: Beyond mobile
eBooks have made self-publishing viable. Fifty Shades of Grey started as a
self-publish and is n...
TECHNOLOGY: The (re)awakening of content
Easier to make & distribute
content. But hard to get and
keep attention.
TECHNOLOGY: The (re)awakening of content
Awareness Purchase
Implicit
Explicit
Entertain
Educate Convince
Inspire
TECHNOLOGY: The (re)awakening of content
Celeb
Endorse
Case
Studies
Guides
Reviews
Events
Quizzes
Games
Apps
Videos
Rating...
TECHNOLOGY: The (re)awakening of content
Plan to be spontaneous. Doing it well isn’t easy – requires integrated
teams, new...
TECHNOLOGY: The (re)awakening of content
Thinking about
content has
practical
implications too:
‘brand’ digital
advertisin...
Technology: Internet of Media
Source: GfK consumer survey, July 2012 among a sample of 500 internet users in the UK
SAAI =...
TECHNOLOGY: Internet of Media
New opportunities for applications, content
delivery, advertising, targeting & measurement. ...
NOW/NEXT/BEYOND: PEOPLE
PEOPLE: Multiscreen behaviour
Multiscreening is the
new norm for many.
The ubiquity of wifi
and growing number
of computin...
PEOPLE: Multiscreen behaviour
Multiscreening is a behaviour, not a
platform. 2nd screen strategies
should start with insig...
PEOPLE: The post-nuclear age
16% of the UK believe
that they fit the ‘traditional’ family
model
Sources: „Family: Helping ...
PEOPLE: The post-nuclear age
Beware the assumption that
only mums are parents and
default to ‘housewives’ as
parents. Ther...
PEOPLE: The post-nuclear age
3 broad family forms now:
1. Families with money
More orthdox. First child in their 30‟s.
Mar...
PEOPLE: Recession on our minds
Source: NIESR
PEOPLE: Recession on our minds
Unemployment in Spain is 27%
vs. 8% in the UK
Stock markets & indexes have
recently hit glo...
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Actual Forecast
Source: nVision Research | ...
NOW/NEXT/BEYOND: THINKING
THINKING: Getting real about social
THINKING: Getting real about social
FROM: TO:
Platform, then strategy Strategy, then platform
Social media = Facebook
Many...
THINKING: More utility, less noise
THINKING: Explicit and implicit
Short term behavioural
responses
Long term brand
preferences
System 2
System 1
Implicit ba...
THINKING: Explicit and implicit
This applies to media
choices too – some are
better at building implicit
associations, and...
10 things to do NOW
1. Build mobile strategy across your
customer journey
2. Plan for multiscreen behaviour –
differentiat...
Next
NOW/NEXT/BEYOND: TECHNOLOGY
TECHNOLOGY: TV+
Penetration of Internet-enabled TV services is set to reach 60% of
the UK population in 2014; 90% of TV’s ...
TECHNOLOGY: TV+
Use of Smart TV services
is relatively nascent: only
16% of homes with
connected TV’s regularly
use TV-IP ...
TECHNOLOGY: TV+
Manufacturers and media brands are actively working to build understanding &
demand for services
Chromecas...
TECHNOLOGY: TV+
4 areas of opportunity and value for brands
1. Data matching & micro-targeting TV households 2. Enhanced e...
TECHNOLOGY: 4G & The Cloud
UK is a relative laggard in 4G. Though EE have launched
early, pricing, coverage and data caps ...
TECHNOLOGY: 4G & The Cloud
Even the most optimistic
forecasts suggest 4G
won’t reach 40% UK
penetration until 2016 –
and t...
TECHNOLOGY: 4G & The Cloud
Live mobile video Mobile broadband / hotspots
Portable gaming Mobile working / office
But 4G st...
TECHNOLOGY: Context comes of age
As location-based
services
develop, contextual
planning & messaging
will become a reality...
Source: Deloitte 2012; The changing face of retail. The store of the future: the new role of the store in a
multichannel e...
TECHNOLOGY: Retail as experience
Stores as technologically-enabled brand
experiences and showrooms – which steer
shoppers ...
TECHNOLOGY: Integrated data
‘Big Data’ is not the
challenge.
Integrated, actionable data
that answers marketing
questions ...
TECHNOLOGY: Integrated data
Client customer & sales data
Media delivery &
performance data
Digital analytics – web &
platf...
TECHNOLOGY: Integrated data
AND
Opportunities & issues:
Behavioural
patterns, trends, contradictions, a
nomalies
Storytell...
NOW/NEXT/BEYOND: PEOPLE
PEOPLE: Attention deficit
The growth &
ubiquity of media
devices is
changing the way
we filter and
process both
content &
...
PEOPLE: Attention deficit
PEOPLE: Attention deficit
The growth & ubiquity of media devices is changing the way we filter and
process both content & ...
PEOPLE: The redefinition of youth
Youth unemployment, rising property prices and debt are forcing Western youth
to be more...
PEOPLE: The redefinition of youth
Whilst their parents take their ‘generational dividend’ and have fun with it – the
empty...
PEOPLE: The redefinition of youth
Giving rise to virtual spaces that aren’t colonised by parents or can be
controlled for ...
PEOPLE: Play
32.9m gamers in the UK
82% of 8 – 65 year olds
are gamers in some
form, from casual to
serious
But ‘play’ has...
PEOPLE: Play
Play is a state of mind. And a powerful way to shape & understand behaviour.
Play shapes how we share 2nd scr...
NOW/NEXT/BEYOND: THINKING
THINKING: Measuring behaviour
Implicit
New data gathering &
research techniques
Explicit
Behavioural data
sources, pattern...
THINKING: Measuring behaviour
UK government’s
Behavioural Insight Team
are leading in the way in
applying controlled
behav...
THINKING: Live media systems
The ‘Internet of Media’
and ‘Integrated Data’ will
fuel another shift in
planning, towards li...
THINKING: Live media systems
At the heart is a shift in planning
approach: how to plan for
live, updatable, contextual
mes...
THINKING: Meaningful marketing
Source: Havas Media Group Meaningful Brands Survey 2013
Building authentic
meaning and purp...
THINKING: Meaningful marketing
Meaningful brands and organisations will need to demonstrate
their meaning in action, not j...
10 things to do PREPARE FOR
1. Data-targeted TV, augmenting ads
with connected TV experiences
2. Mobile rich media & cloud...
Beyond
NOW/NEXT/BEYOND: TECHNOLOGY
TECHNOLOGY: Co-creation gets mainstream
All these products were crowd-funded & produced by individuals or
start-ups. Pre-t...
TECHNOLOGY: Co-creation gets mainstream
‘Pre-tailed’ products &
services have the
potential to disrupt
established categor...
TECHNOLOGY: Co-creation gets mainstream
3D printing has been the preserve of hobbyists, start-
ups and designers, but firs...
TECHNOLOGY: NFC comes of age
Source: Posterscope / Clear Channel Study – UK & USA
Despite industry
hype, NFC is yet to gai...
TECHNOLOGY: NFC comes of age
Right now mobile payments are fragmented. NFC is one side of the equation
– secure consolidat...
TECHNOLOGY: NFC comes of age
But in the next 5 – 10 years NFC will mature and start to deliver on it’s
potential – with be...
TECHNOLOGY: Internet of everything
One trillion connected
devices by 2015
- IBM Investor Briefing ‘Making Markets:
Smarter...
Title of presentation
TECHNOLOGY: Internet of everything
“20% of car sales in 2015 will
include embedded connectivity
while over half will be co...
TECHNOLOGY: Internet of everything
The sublime…
TECHNOLOGY: Internet of everything
The ridiculous?
TECHNOLOGY: Internet of everything
Connected motoring Self-monitoring Healthcare
Home security
Universal remote
control
Ed...
TECHNOLOGY: Internet of everything
There are already opportunities to ‘connect’
products in ways that are motivating to us...
TECHNOLOGY: Internet of everything
For example:
EVRYTHING are a
UK start-up
specialising in
providing
management and
measu...
TECHNOLOGY: Fragmentation of social
NOW: solar system NEXT: constellation
TECHNOLOGY: Fragmentation of social
Brands and users will
develop a platform
repertoire most useful for
them.
Strategy, co...
TECHNOLOGY: Augmented life
Likely to be significant investment in
augmented experience tech in the next
decade, both in ne...
TECHNOLOGY: Augmented life
Opportunities & issues:
- Location-based experiences
- New ways of capturing &
sharing content
...
NOW/NEXT/BEYOND: PEOPLE
PEOPLE: Murdered by modernity
- Charlie Brooker
PEOPLE: Murdered by modernity
“The Murdered by Modernity
mindset is bound to gain
greater prominence in the
years ahead.
B...
PEOPLE: Murdered by modernity
Say less, make it better & more meaningful
Be available when needed, make it easy
Champion p...
PEOPLE: The demographic crunch
In developed economies
we have hit a demographic
‘sweet spot’ optimal to
economic growth – ...
PEOPLE: The demographic crunch
This change may, in the
long-term, affect organic
economic growth.
But it’s already startin...
PEOPLE: The demographic crunch
Developments and implications of the ‘crunch’:
Most prosperous audiences will be
late worki...
PEOPLE: Eco returns
Environment concerns have receded since 2008 where economic concerns
have grown, but as economic indic...
PEOPLE: Eco returns
Global warming issues are becoming more tangible – and pressing
PEOPLE: Eco returns
Global warming issues are becoming more tangible – and pressing
PEOPLE: Eco returns
The Global 100: World Leaders in Clean Capitalism
The next wave of
heightened interest in
sustainabili...
10 things to do MONITOR, EXPERIMENT, PLAN FOR
1. Involve customers in product
design: co-creation or customisation
2. Plan...
Now, Next, Beyond
Mobile in the customer journey
Beyond mobile
The (re)awakening of content
Internet of media
Multiscreen ...
Want to hear more?
mark.holden@arenamedia.com
@holdenmw
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New, Next, Beyond: Making Sense of Change

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Now, Next, Beyond is our take on how to make sense of changes in the media landscape, including new technologies, trends in consumer behaviour or demography, and our understanding of how marketing works.

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  • In a multichannel world, what’s the value of a store?As spending migrates online, clothing retailers are seeing the revenues generated by each of theirstores gradually decline. We calculate that market leader M&S saw its store-based generalmerchandise sales decline by a little over 3% in the year ending March 2012, while Next revealed a0.9% fall in its total store revenues in the year to January 2012 (or -1.4% if we strip out its small Lipsyfascia.So the response should naturally be to close stores? No. Both retailers are growing their sales area,M&S general merchandise by an estimated 1.5% and Next by 6.6% in 2011/12. Moreover, August2012 saw M&S open its second largest store, at Cheshire Oaks near Liverpool. And they are not alone,with Debenhams among those with ambitious store-opening plans, one of a number of retailers whocite the higher levels of online spend among customers who live near a store.Indeed, it tends only to be struggling retailers that are using the justification of a migration to onlineshopping for planned or mooted store closures: French Connection, New Look, and some of Arcadia’sfashion fascia, for example.Our consumer research found nearly half of Next and M&S shoppers had bought online – yet, clearly,their online sales make up a far lower proportion of their total revenues, suggesting their customers areselectively mixing in-store and online shopping. Meanwhile, overall, 18% of womenswear shoppersand 19% of menswear shoppers had used the internet as part of the browsing or purchase process, but alarge proportion of this was in conjunction with store-based browsing and shopping.It’s clear that customers use online and bricks-and-mortar stores interchangeably, shopping the brandnot the channel, and so have an expectation that physical stores will continue to service their demand.For the most successful retailers – and particularly the mature market-leaders with the most share tolose – there is simply no question of a significant retreat in store numbers.
  • New, Next, Beyond: Making Sense of Change

    1. 1. Now, Next, Beyond Version #1 Mark Holden, Head of Futures @holdenmw
    2. 2. Why have we done this? To make practical sense of change: • Understand it. • Prioritise based on likely impact to marketing & communication. • Technology is a driver, but it’s not all about technology. • The ‘future’ is not static. This is version 1.
    3. 3. 2 important things first 1. Technology and behaviour are 2 sides of the same coin.
    4. 4. 2 important things first 2. This is not futurology. The next wave is already here. Internet: 50 years old Mobile: 30 years old Social: 10 years old
    5. 5. Now, Next, Beyond Now Next 12 months Critical now Next Next 24 months A rising tide Beyond Within 5 years Clouds on the horizon Act now Prepare Monitor, experiment, plan Impact
    6. 6. Why this framework? Technologies don’t disrupt evenly. Source: McKinsey Global Institute
    7. 7. Now, Next, Beyond Mobile in the customer journey Beyond mobile The (re)awakening of content Internet of media Multiscreen behaviour The post-nuclear age Recession on our minds Getting real about social More utility, less noise Explicit and implicit thinking TV+ 4G & The Cloud Context comes of age Retail as experience Integrated data Attention deficit Redefinition of youth Play Measuring behaviour Live media systems Meaningful marketing Co-creation gets mainstream NFC comes of age Internet of Things Fragmentation of social Augmented life Murdered by modernity The demographic crunch Eco returns Now Next Beyond Tech People Thinking
    8. 8. Now
    9. 9. NOW/NEXT/BEYOND: TECHNOLOGY
    10. 10. TECHNOLOGY: Mobile across the customer journey Source: Arena Media forecast (aggregate of penetration data) Smartphone at 80% penetration by Dec 2014 – as high as fixed line broadband
    11. 11. TECHNOLOGY: Mobile across the customer journey Outside of search, mobile advertising will take time to mature – right now owned & earned mobile experiences are critical
    12. 12. TECHNOLOGY: Mobile across the customer journey Source: Google; Mobile In-Store Research: How in-store shoppers are using mobile devices; 2013 So you have an optimised site? Good. Now plan mobile experiences across the whole customer journey.
    13. 13. TECHNOLOGY: Mobile across the customer journey Discovery Transaction Experience Post-purchase / loyalty Mobile has a role to play at each stage across paid-owned-earned – mobile strategies should be defined across this rather than simply sites & apps
    14. 14. TECHNOLOGY: Beyond mobile Source: Arena Media forecast (aggregate of penetration data) Tablet at 40% penetration by Dec 2014 – only likely to reach mobile levels by the end of the decade Note: this is personal ownership. Household penetration is at 40% now.
    15. 15. TECHNOLOGY: Beyond mobile 51% Tablet usage with TV 35% Mobile usage with TV 33% Laptop / desktop usage with TV Source: IAB Three Device Lives: Tablets in context / IAB Mojo Study Tablet, 49% Mobile, 22% PC, 29% Which of your devices best allows you to be entertained? 2:56 2:12 2nd screen Entertainment Shopping
    16. 16. TECHNOLOGY: Beyond mobile Tablets are primarily media consumption devices, often in-home. Different behaviour from mobile, which requires a disctinct approach to user experience, content & media planning.
    17. 17. TECHNOLOGY: Beyond mobile eBooks have made self-publishing viable. Fifty Shades of Grey started as a self-publish and is now the best selling UK book of all time. It’s time for the right brands to think about publishing, a relatively untapped space.
    18. 18. TECHNOLOGY: The (re)awakening of content Easier to make & distribute content. But hard to get and keep attention.
    19. 19. TECHNOLOGY: The (re)awakening of content Awareness Purchase Implicit Explicit Entertain Educate Convince Inspire
    20. 20. TECHNOLOGY: The (re)awakening of content Celeb Endorse Case Studies Guides Reviews Events Quizzes Games Apps Videos RatingsArticles Webinars Stunts PR Viral video eNews Demo videos Reports w/papers Info- graphics Comps Digital Mags Podcast INSPIRE CONVINCE ENTERTAIN EDUCATE Content is potentially many different activities, of varying complexity & impact. We need to get specific.
    21. 21. TECHNOLOGY: The (re)awakening of content Plan to be spontaneous. Doing it well isn’t easy – requires integrated teams, new working practices and a ‘generous’ creative platform. And a clear strategy for when, why and how to go ‘real-time’.
    22. 22. TECHNOLOGY: The (re)awakening of content Thinking about content has practical implications too: ‘brand’ digital advertising is moving towards content-led, native formats & away from reliance on conventional formats
    23. 23. Technology: Internet of Media Source: GfK consumer survey, July 2012 among a sample of 500 internet users in the UK SAAI = slightly above average income consumers All ‘traditional’ media is now connected. The long-heralded vision of media convergence is becoming a clear reality.
    24. 24. TECHNOLOGY: Internet of Media New opportunities for applications, content delivery, advertising, targeting & measurement. Start bringing digital thinking & behaviour into the ‘traditional’ media world, making it more dynamic, live, responsive. 90% of TV’s sold in 2014 forecast to be Internet- enabled 196,000 digital outdoor screens in the UK; only 4% of ads on them make use of reactive, live content Sources: Posterscope 2013; Future Source Consulting
    25. 25. NOW/NEXT/BEYOND: PEOPLE
    26. 26. PEOPLE: Multiscreen behaviour Multiscreening is the new norm for many. The ubiquity of wifi and growing number of computing devices means we increasingly switch attention between devices, simultaneously. It’s how we’ve domesticated technology into the household.
    27. 27. PEOPLE: Multiscreen behaviour Multiscreening is a behaviour, not a platform. 2nd screen strategies should start with insight & outcome, then technology.
    28. 28. PEOPLE: The post-nuclear age 16% of the UK believe that they fit the ‘traditional’ family model Sources: „Family: Helping To Understand The Modern British Family‟ – Centre for the Modern Family; Half the population believes society has an outdated view of the family 58% increase in the number of stay at home dads between 1993 and 2008 “The two-parent, male-breadwinner family is basically extinct.” - Spencer Thomson, IPPR 55% of the UK don’t think that their family set-up is portrayed positively in advertising
    29. 29. PEOPLE: The post-nuclear age Beware the assumption that only mums are parents and default to ‘housewives’ as parents. There are opportunities for brands who embrace & reflect modern, complex family life.
    30. 30. PEOPLE: The post-nuclear age 3 broad family forms now: 1. Families with money More orthdox. First child in their 30‟s. Married. Mums and dads working. 2. Blue collar workers. Only 44% married. Children out of wedlock. Mothers are bread-winners. 3. Foreign fusion More traditional. 75% children born in marriage (vs. 46% for Britons). Foreign- born women make up 25% of new births in Britain. Source: The Post-Nuclear Age; The Economist, March 2013
    31. 31. PEOPLE: Recession on our minds Source: NIESR
    32. 32. PEOPLE: Recession on our minds Unemployment in Spain is 27% vs. 8% in the UK Stock markets & indexes have recently hit global highs RBS & Lloyds profitable again Consumers re-balancing their spending Economic news is political Recession is about perception – but perception matters. Value, thrift & comparison have become a part of our culture.
    33. 33. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Actual Forecast Source: nVision Research | Base: 1,000-5,000 face-to-face/online respondents aged 16+, GB PEOPLE: Recession on our minds “Which of the following, if any, have you done on the internet in the last 6 months? Compared/looked up prices for any product or service / used a price comparison web site. This is fueled by digital comparison & money management services – we expect to be able to ‘deal hunt’ & compare.
    34. 34. NOW/NEXT/BEYOND: THINKING
    35. 35. THINKING: Getting real about social
    36. 36. THINKING: Getting real about social FROM: TO: Platform, then strategy Strategy, then platform Social media = Facebook Many platforms, each with a comparative advantage Vanity goals e.g. Likes Realistic business goals Social ‘replaces’ TV Social complements TV A new channel to manage Customers to manage
    37. 37. THINKING: More utility, less noise
    38. 38. THINKING: Explicit and implicit Short term behavioural responses Long term brand preferences System 2 System 1 Implicit band associations Rational, explicit product & pricing messages Sources: The Long and Short of it : Binet and Field; Decoded: The Science Behind Why We Buy : Barden “If we think of products as serving explicit goals, and of brands as serving implicit goals, then there is no problem in creating a value proposition that weaves together explicit and implicit goal levels.” - Phil Barden, Decoded
    39. 39. THINKING: Explicit and implicit This applies to media choices too – some are better at building implicit associations, and some at delivering against explicit goals. Make complimentary media choices in comms strategy. Source: Innerscope; Dr Carl Marci: How to create better connections by understanding the brain
    40. 40. 10 things to do NOW 1. Build mobile strategy across your customer journey 2. Plan for multiscreen behaviour – differentiated & tech-neutral 3. Content: be specific, focused, spontaneous 4. Blend digital into ‘traditional’ channels – live, dynamic 9. Understand, embrace & reflect modern British family life 8. Demonstrate how you help ‘squeezed’ Britons save money 5. Get smart about social – outcomes, resource, platforms 6. Develop brand services as marketing 7. Plan for mutually reinforcing explicit & implicit consumer goals 10. Strategy & behaviour first, technology second
    41. 41. Next
    42. 42. NOW/NEXT/BEYOND: TECHNOLOGY
    43. 43. TECHNOLOGY: TV+ Penetration of Internet-enabled TV services is set to reach 60% of the UK population in 2014; 90% of TV’s sold in the UK are forecast to be IP-enabled Source: Future Source Consulting
    44. 44. TECHNOLOGY: TV+ Use of Smart TV services is relatively nascent: only 16% of homes with connected TV’s regularly use TV-IP catch up services, and only 8% watch films on demand. As tech, UI & navigation improves, so will adoption & use. Source: Deloitte „TV: Why? – Pespectives on TV‟ Media Guardian Edinburgh International TV Festival 2012
    45. 45. TECHNOLOGY: TV+ Manufacturers and media brands are actively working to build understanding & demand for services Chromecast HDMI dongle „IP-enables‟ any TV Manufacturers actively educating & marketing connected services The 90-year old Radio Times is planning to launch a Smart TV guide
    46. 46. TECHNOLOGY: TV+ 4 areas of opportunity and value for brands 1. Data matching & micro-targeting TV households 2. Enhanced experiences: brand content 3. New intuitive forms of interactive advertising e.g. gesture 4. Transaction and e-commerce services
    47. 47. TECHNOLOGY: 4G & The Cloud UK is a relative laggard in 4G. Though EE have launched early, pricing, coverage and data caps remain a barrier. This is set to change by the end of 2013 when all networks roll out an offering. US penetration at 10%.
    48. 48. TECHNOLOGY: 4G & The Cloud Even the most optimistic forecasts suggest 4G won’t reach 40% UK penetration until 2016 – and this is contingent on national roll-out and customer-friendly pricing Source: Yankee Group “Mobile Broadband Forecast‟ (Jan 2013)
    49. 49. TECHNOLOGY: 4G & The Cloud Live mobile video Mobile broadband / hotspots Portable gaming Mobile working / office But 4G starts to make the mobile cloud a reality: mobile working, rich media services and broadband-like experiences on- the-go.
    50. 50. TECHNOLOGY: Context comes of age As location-based services develop, contextual planning & messaging will become a reality. This is already possible through, for example, mobile geo- fencing. As these services evolve, the matching of marketing message to a specific and relevant brand context will start to shape how we plan.
    51. 51. Source: Deloitte 2012; The changing face of retail. The store of the future: the new role of the store in a multichannel environment The role of the store is shifting as multichannel retailing grows TECHNOLOGY: Retail as experience
    52. 52. TECHNOLOGY: Retail as experience Stores as technologically-enabled brand experiences and showrooms – which steer shoppers into digital channels
    53. 53. TECHNOLOGY: Integrated data ‘Big Data’ is not the challenge. Integrated, actionable data that answers marketing questions & connects customer behaviour across disparate data points is the challenge.
    54. 54. TECHNOLOGY: Integrated data Client customer & sales data Media delivery & performance data Digital analytics – web & platform data Environmental data e.g. weather, market forecasts Structured, ‘owned’ data Unstructured, predictiv e data Conversational analysis & brand sentiment Competitive intelligence & benchmarking Modelled relationships & interdependencies Guides strategic planning Identifies marketing opportunities & weaknesses Drives real-time changes to comms
    55. 55. TECHNOLOGY: Integrated data AND Opportunities & issues: Behavioural patterns, trends, contradictions, a nomalies Storytelling through data Creative response: Uncover customer insight Re-frame or shape agency briefs Controlled, measurable creative „experiments‟ MATHS MAGIC
    56. 56. NOW/NEXT/BEYOND: PEOPLE
    57. 57. PEOPLE: Attention deficit The growth & ubiquity of media devices is changing the way we filter and process both content & advertising
    58. 58. PEOPLE: Attention deficit
    59. 59. PEOPLE: Attention deficit The growth & ubiquity of media devices is changing the way we filter and process both content & advertising
    60. 60. PEOPLE: The redefinition of youth Youth unemployment, rising property prices and debt are forcing Western youth to be more pragmatic and less hedonistic then before
    61. 61. PEOPLE: The redefinition of youth Whilst their parents take their ‘generational dividend’ and have fun with it – the empty nest is a new kind of youthful freedom, with much more spending money
    62. 62. PEOPLE: The redefinition of youth Giving rise to virtual spaces that aren’t colonised by parents or can be controlled for privacy
    63. 63. PEOPLE: Play 32.9m gamers in the UK 82% of 8 – 65 year olds are gamers in some form, from casual to serious But ‘play’ has bigger implications than computer game play… Source: IAB Gaming Britain, 2012
    64. 64. PEOPLE: Play Play is a state of mind. And a powerful way to shape & understand behaviour. Play shapes how we share 2nd screening & playable media ‘Implicit’ market research through game techniques Re-framing behaviour & perception of abstract services e.g. energy use
    65. 65. NOW/NEXT/BEYOND: THINKING
    66. 66. THINKING: Measuring behaviour Implicit New data gathering & research techniques Explicit Behavioural data sources, patterns & analysis Controlled experiments Hypothesis & behavioural psychology testing Conventional survey-based, perceptual research is increasingly a poor predictor of how people respond in actual behaviour to products and communication
    67. 67. THINKING: Measuring behaviour UK government’s Behavioural Insight Team are leading in the way in applying controlled behavioural experiments to shaping policy strategy. Building marketing experiments to test behavioural response overcomes problems relating to gaps between intention & action in research
    68. 68. THINKING: Live media systems The ‘Internet of Media’ and ‘Integrated Data’ will fuel another shift in planning, towards live media systems, across any connected screen, which can be updated dynamically and change to reflect messaging and content over the lifetime of a campaign
    69. 69. THINKING: Live media systems At the heart is a shift in planning approach: how to plan for live, updatable, contextual messaging across media platforms
    70. 70. THINKING: Meaningful marketing Source: Havas Media Group Meaningful Brands Survey 2013 Building authentic meaning and purpose is becoming increasingly important: giving people what they genuinely want & making their world a better place
    71. 71. THINKING: Meaningful marketing Meaningful brands and organisations will need to demonstrate their meaning in action, not just word. How are you building meaningful initiatives that become compelling brand communication?
    72. 72. 10 things to do PREPARE FOR 1. Data-targeted TV, augmenting ads with connected TV experiences 2. Mobile rich media & cloud-based brand services, enabled by 4G 3. An integrated, actionable marketing data intelligence platform 4. A process for extracting strategic insight & creative application from data platforms 9. Build towards live, dynamic, contextual multimedia comms 8. Understand behaviour ‘in the wild’: develop controlled marketing experiments 5. A consistent brand story that can be built piecemeal an attention- starved world 6. How to help youth audiences cope & their parents profit from the ‘golden generation’ 7. Embrace the spirit of play in campaign design & research 10. Understand how your brand is meaningful in action & word
    73. 73. Beyond
    74. 74. NOW/NEXT/BEYOND: TECHNOLOGY
    75. 75. TECHNOLOGY: Co-creation gets mainstream All these products were crowd-funded & produced by individuals or start-ups. Pre-tail & crowd-funding platforms are building momentum and starting to attract mainstream attention.
    76. 76. TECHNOLOGY: Co-creation gets mainstream ‘Pre-tailed’ products & services have the potential to disrupt established categories – and they come ‘in- built’ with customer advocacy and support
    77. 77. TECHNOLOGY: Co-creation gets mainstream 3D printing has been the preserve of hobbyists, start- ups and designers, but first mainstream consumer applications are emerging e.g. Disney personalised merchandise, 3D product marketplaces
    78. 78. TECHNOLOGY: NFC comes of age Source: Posterscope / Clear Channel Study – UK & USA Despite industry hype, NFC is yet to gain user traction. Relatively few devices NFC-enabled, low understanding of NFC benefits & limited number of applications
    79. 79. TECHNOLOGY: NFC comes of age Right now mobile payments are fragmented. NFC is one side of the equation – secure consolidated user & merchant payment solutions are needed for NFC wallet to start to scale.
    80. 80. TECHNOLOGY: NFC comes of age But in the next 5 – 10 years NFC will mature and start to deliver on it’s potential – with benefits for end users and brands
    81. 81. TECHNOLOGY: Internet of everything One trillion connected devices by 2015 - IBM Investor Briefing ‘Making Markets: Smarter Planet’
    82. 82. Title of presentation
    83. 83. TECHNOLOGY: Internet of everything “20% of car sales in 2015 will include embedded connectivity while over half will be connected - either by embedded, tethered or smartphone integration” The sublime…
    84. 84. TECHNOLOGY: Internet of everything The sublime…
    85. 85. TECHNOLOGY: Internet of everything The ridiculous?
    86. 86. TECHNOLOGY: Internet of everything Connected motoring Self-monitoring Healthcare Home security Universal remote control Education / distance learning Most promising & productive areas:
    87. 87. TECHNOLOGY: Internet of everything There are already opportunities to ‘connect’ products in ways that are motivating to users
    88. 88. TECHNOLOGY: Internet of everything For example: EVRYTHING are a UK start-up specialising in providing management and measurement platform for connected products – making it easy to trial connected product experiences
    89. 89. TECHNOLOGY: Fragmentation of social NOW: solar system NEXT: constellation
    90. 90. TECHNOLOGY: Fragmentation of social Brands and users will develop a platform repertoire most useful for them. Strategy, content & ideas should lead – followed by best-fit platform choice
    91. 91. TECHNOLOGY: Augmented life Likely to be significant investment in augmented experience tech in the next decade, both in new products & user education.
    92. 92. TECHNOLOGY: Augmented life Opportunities & issues: - Location-based experiences - New ways of capturing & sharing content - Augmenting retail - Gesture-based advertising & marketing service design - Privacy & permission - Intrusive vs. permissive advertising - Unintended distraction from the ‘real world’
    93. 93. NOW/NEXT/BEYOND: PEOPLE
    94. 94. PEOPLE: Murdered by modernity - Charlie Brooker
    95. 95. PEOPLE: Murdered by modernity “The Murdered by Modernity mindset is bound to gain greater prominence in the years ahead. But this is not a trend that will necessarily cause contradictory feelings. We might like to complain about our always-on lifestyles and our inability to escape from technology, but we will also enjoy our ability to find information instantly with a click or a swipe and each new innovation will be welcomed with considerable enthusiasm.” - Richard Nicholls, Future Foundation
    96. 96. PEOPLE: Murdered by modernity Say less, make it better & more meaningful Be available when needed, make it easy Champion privacy and data transparency Earn attention, minimise intrusion Help and occasionally encourage audiences to switch off
    97. 97. PEOPLE: The demographic crunch In developed economies we have hit a demographic ‘sweet spot’ optimal to economic growth – the point at which a high proportion of working age people support a small pool of dependants. We are now emerging out that ‘sweet spot’ into a more challenging period.
    98. 98. PEOPLE: The demographic crunch This change may, in the long-term, affect organic economic growth. But it’s already starting to create an expectations gap: - Retirees expecting sustained economic wealth - Life/quality expectancy - Fewer relative opportunities amongst younger working age groups
    99. 99. PEOPLE: The demographic crunch Developments and implications of the ‘crunch’: Most prosperous audiences will be late working age & early retirement – we need to rethink our obsession with youth targeting in marketing Older working ages and 2nd, 3rd or even 4th careers will become the norm Solutions and services that help retired age groups live sustainably and fund healthcare will become crucial Saving more, at an earlier stage in working life, is likely to become a necessity as pension schemes are less generous Technological learning and re- learning will become important as workers need to remain skilled for longer Need to approach representations of age/youth in marketing differently – as a state of mind or attitude, rather conventional age breaks
    100. 100. PEOPLE: Eco returns Environment concerns have receded since 2008 where economic concerns have grown, but as economic indicators improve and climate change becomes more tangible – this will once again become a critical issue
    101. 101. PEOPLE: Eco returns Global warming issues are becoming more tangible – and pressing
    102. 102. PEOPLE: Eco returns Global warming issues are becoming more tangible – and pressing
    103. 103. PEOPLE: Eco returns The Global 100: World Leaders in Clean Capitalism The next wave of heightened interest in sustainability will have a greater sense of urgency – ‘greenwashing’ of the past will appear hollow. Does your brand or organisation have a sustainability plan?
    104. 104. 10 things to do MONITOR, EXPERIMENT, PLAN FOR 1. Involve customers in product design: co-creation or customisation 2. Plan NFC services & applications for when it hits critical mass 3. Create connected experiences & rewards from physical products 4. Move towards the best fit social platform ‘repertoire’ for your brand 9. Approach ‘youth marketing’ as state of mind, not age 8. Plan for demographic change: re- think existing life-stage stereotypes 5. Try augmented brand experiments in new or existing devices 6. Help users simplify their digital lives – simplicity, moderation, ‘analogue’ experiences 7. Good citizenship of the digital age: respect privacy, minimise intrusion 10. Become a sustainable brand & champion sustainable behaviour
    105. 105. Now, Next, Beyond Mobile in the customer journey Beyond mobile The (re)awakening of content Internet of media Multiscreen behaviour The post-nuclear age Recession on our minds Getting real about social More utility, less noise Explicit and implicit thinking TV+ 4G & The Cloud Context comes of age Retail as experience Integrated data Attention deficit Redefinition of youth Play Measuring behaviour Live media systems Meaningful marketing Co-creation gets mainstream NFC comes of age Internet of Things Fragmentation of social Augmented life Murdered by modernity The demographic crunch Eco returns Now Next Beyond Tech People Thinking
    106. 106. Want to hear more? mark.holden@arenamedia.com @holdenmw

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