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What Makes Cities Smart? Collaboration, Digitization and New Technologies
- 1. © 2015 TM Forum | 1 Peter Sany presentation at the Global City Forum What Makes Cities Smart? Collaboration, Digitisation and New Technologies are the Cure for Many City Diseases Peter Sany, President & CEO, TM Forum Global City Forum, Shanghai, Nov 1, 2016
- 2. © 2015 TM Forum | 2 Peter Sany presentation at the Global City Forum Source: United Nations Two Generations of Population Growth Ahead • The world population will grow by 2 billion people in the next 30 years • Almost all of this growth is in Africa, India and Asia Africa 108.9% Oceania 43.9% LatAm 23.6% N. Am 21.6% Asia 19.9% Europe -4.3% 2015 - 2050 Population forecast 1950 – 2100 Population trends WORLD ASIA AFRICA EUROPE LAT AM/CARIBBEAN N. AMERICA OCEANIA
- 3. © 2015 TM Forum | 3 Peter Sany presentation at the Global City Forum Source: United Nations Ageing Population Puts Pressure on Society • Average life expectancy is rising dramatically • This puts pressure on healthcare, benefit systems, and society at large < 65 > 65 5% Now < 65 > 65 16% 2050 2100: 69% 1960: 40% Africa % of global population over 65 will more than double by 2050 Life expectancy trends 1950-2050 MORE DEVELOPED REGIONS LAT AM/CARIBBEAN ASIA WORLD AFRICA
- 4. © 2015 TM Forum | 4 Peter Sany presentation at the Global City Forum Source: World Bank: United Nations Increase in Disposable Income Transforms Societies • Net disposable income rises & extreme poverty falls • Most significant transformation in Africa • Greater wealth drives societal transformation through, but also greater consumption and demand on resources Net Disposable Income Extreme Poverty Communication Energy, Travel General Consumption Net Disposable Income Trend AFRICA ASIA LAT AM/CARIBBEAN EUROPE N. AMERICA
- 5. © 2015 TM Forum | 5 Peter Sany presentation at the Global City Forum Source: United Nations Urbanization: Massive Population & Economic Growth in Cities • Industrial Age – Industry 2.0 • Globally still predominantly rural population 1950 30% 70% Urban vs Rural Population ChangeOverall Population Growth 1950-2050: 2.4 Bn to 9.3 Bn ~ 4x Urban Population Growth 1950-2050: 800 Mio to 6.2 Bn ~ 8x
- 6. © 2015 TM Forum | 6 Peter Sany presentation at the Global City Forum Source: United Nations 2017 • Information Age & Industry 3.0, 4.0 emerging • Massive growth of urban population Urban vs Rural Population Change Urbanization: Massive Population & Economic Growth in Cities 45% 55% Overall Population Growth 1950-2050: 2.4 Bn to 9.3 Bn ~ 4x Urban Population Growth 1950-2050: 800 Mio to 6.2 Bn ~ 8x 2015: 20 Mio1950: 10 k Shenzhen ~ 2’000x
- 7. © 2015 TM Forum | 7 Peter Sany presentation at the Global City Forum Source: United Nations Urbanization: Massive Population & Economic Growth in Cities 2050 70% 30% • Digital Age & Industry 4.0 in full swing • Massive growth of urban population Urban vs Rural Population ChangeOverall Population Growth 1950-2050: 2.4 Bn to 9.3 Bn ~ 4x Urban Population Growth 1950-2050: 800 Mio to 6.2 Bn ~ 8x 2015 Urban Population 2050 India: + 404 Mio China: + 292 Mio Nigeria: + 212 Mio
- 8. © 2015 TM Forum | 8 Peter Sany presentation at the Global City Forum Source: Economist Economic Power is Moving to Asia • Asia is reclaiming its historic role as dominant economic region • The power shift will lead to many unknown consequences Asia % of global GDP continues to rise Asia % of GDP in 2000 26% Asia % of GDP in 2014 32% Asia % of GDP in 2050 53% The power map is changing
- 9. © 2015 TM Forum | 9 Peter Sany presentation at the Global City Forum Digitization Connects People, Devices and Businesses at an Exponential Rate • Digital transformation affects all traditional businesses • Decision power is moving from boardrooms to consumers • 200 billion connected devices change the fabric of society 200 Billion Devices & Sensors by 2020
- 10. © 2015 TM Forum | 10 Peter Sany presentation at the Global City Forum Mega-Trends Have an Extreme Effect on Cities Pollution Waste Energy Congestion Health Civil Unrest Population Growth Ageing Population Increasing Income Urbanization Economic Shift East Information Age
- 11. © 2015 TM Forum | 11 Peter Sany presentation at the Global City Forum Source: United Nations Slowing Down: Population Plateaus in 2050 • But there are still two generations of unprecedented growth ahead • This demands a re-think of how we consume resources, and it needs to be done now! Fertility 2100NOW NORTH AMERICA OCEANIA AFRICA LATAM ASIA 1950 Life Expectancy Family Size Life Expectancy 83yrs 46yrs EUROPE
- 12. © 2015 TM Forum | 12 Peter Sany presentation at the Global City Forum Source: Economist The Sharing Economy is Thriving Owning Economy Sharing Economy 1 : 1 m : m
- 13. © 2015 TM Forum | 13 Peter Sany presentation at the Global City Forum Source: Economist From Ego-Systems to Eco-Systems • Individuals and businesses must move from ego-systems to eco-systems • Sharing is more efficient • Collaboration is key to rapid innovation • Ownership is becoming less and less important • Convenience and cost will be key factors in the future • A world of co-opetition
- 14. © 2015 TM Forum | 14 Peter Sany presentation at the Global City Forum We Need to Understand the World as Interconnected Ecosystems Smart Social and Economic Ecosystems Digital Backbone Infrastructure Ecosystem
- 15. © 2015 TM Forum | 15 Peter Sany presentation at the Global City Forum We Need 4P’s: Public - Private - People - Partnership People Society Public Government Private Enterprise Partnership
- 16. © 2015 TM Forum | 16 Peter Sany presentation at the Global City Forum A Smart City Strategy Equates to a Collaborative Top-down and Bottom-up Approach Top-Down Individuals SMEs + Enterprise Exploit the Digital Backbone Bottom-Up Government Infrastructure Digital Backbone & Services
- 17. © 2015 TM Forum | 17 Peter Sany presentation at the Global City Forum A Common Ecosystem Language is Necessary Digital contracts Reference architectures Information models Process models & taxonomy End-to-end management Maturity models Security & privacy
- 18. © 2015 TM Forum | 18 Peter Sany presentation at the Global City Forum Technology and Interconnected Ecosystems Will Help to Overcome City Diseases Combined mobility Less travel Happier citizens Increased densityAutnom. Vehicles Self service government administration Social development solutions Less pollution Better priorities Better lives & health Smart data Better communication Pollution Waste Energy Congestion Health Civil Unrest Less energy consumption
- 19. © 2015 TM Forum | 19 Peter Sany presentation at the Global City Forum Digital Transformation and Collaboration Will Make a Better World Smart City Better Life Exploiting Information Age
Editor's Notes
- Slide 1: Welcome slide Based on our current welcome slide. Updated main title: What makes cities smart? Subtitle: Collaboration, digitization and new technologies are the cure for many city deceases
- Slide 2 using WIREFRAME, Title: 'Two generations of population growth ahead' up: We display the relative growth per continent with arrows indicating how much population will grow between 2015 and 2050 - Africa 109%, Oceania 44%, LA and Caribbean 24%, NA 21%, Asia 20%, Europe -4% graph: use the population graph (attached as GRAPH-SLIDE2) and make the style look like the other graphs between year 1950 and 2100 bullets: 1 - The world population will grow by 2 billion people the coming 30 years 2 - Almost all of this growth is in Africa, India and Asia 3 - TBD Population growth chart: scale 1900 or 1950 to 2100 – should show that population is projected to peak around 2050 and 9.x billion people. Ideally a stacked chart showing the continents.
- Slide 3 using WIREFRAME, Title: 'Ageing population puts pressure on society' down: ‘Working population’ up: ‘Retired population’ (doubled as a percentage of world population between today and 2050)* graph: the one we have for average life expectancy rising bullets: 1 - Average life expectancy is rising dramatically 2 - This puts pressure on healthcare, benefit systems and society at large 3 - TBD Life expectancy: do we have a cart that shows the differences by continent? Maybe we should add one that shows the age pyramid changing as well between 1950 and 2050? At least spell out how many more people in & and absolute we’ll have in the ‘retired’ age bracket above 65 and how many people will be in the active working range of 18 to 65?
- Slide 4 using WIREFRAME, Title: 'Increase in disposable income transforms societies' down: ‘extreme poverty reduced by 1.4 billion' up: 'net disposable income' up: ‘communications, energy & general consumption' graph: Can we find a graph outlining disposable income looking forward? An alternative is to turn this into a graphics “Net disposal income is rising. 800 million people are living on less than $1.25 a day compared to 2 billion 25 years ago." bullets: 1 - With the exception of Africa the world is turning middle class 2 - This leads to an explosion in developed world type of consumer behaviour 3 - Consumption patterns drive high energy and communications demand Disposable income: should show how the disposable income rises in various continents Africa, Asia, LA, India and then what people do with this money: build housing, buy appliances (energy), buy mobility and cars (Mobility – energy) and communication (information democratization). Focus less on poverty going down as wealth going up.
- Slide 5 using WIREFRAME, Title: 'Rural dwellers will never outnumber city folks again' up: ‘3 billion increase in urban population’ (this is from today to 2050) going nowhere: ’no change in rural population’ (this is from today to 2050) graph: the build of the three pie charts we had from 1950, 2017 to 2050 (please add a white white border to the circles) bullets: 1 - Urbanisation will put enormous pressure on cities 2 - 600 cities will account for 65% of global GDP in 2025 3 - This equates to a proportionally higher energy consumption, pollution, etc Combine this with energy consumption that is statistically higher in cities than in rural areas and show the multiplicative effect Can show this with the up-arrows as well, try to make a calculation for a ‘typical’ middle city in China growing from say 5 mio to 10 mio within 20 years (Shenzhen as example from the past translated into a future city)
- Slide 5 using WIREFRAME, Title: 'Rural dwellers will never outnumber city folks again' up: ‘3 billion increase in urban population’ (this is from today to 2050) going nowhere: ’no change in rural population’ (this is from today to 2050) graph: the build of the three pie charts we had from 1950, 2017 to 2050 (please add a white white border to the circles) bullets: 1 - Urbanisation will put enormous pressure on cities 2 - 600 cities will account for 65% of global GDP in 2025 3 - This equates to a proportionally higher energy consumption, pollution, etc Combine this with energy consumption that is statistically higher in cities than in rural areas and show the multiplicative effect Can show this with the up-arrows as well, try to make a calculation for a ‘typical’ middle city in China growing from say 5 mio to 10 mio within 20 years (Shenzhen as example from the past translated into a future city)
- Slide 5 using WIREFRAME, Title: 'Rural dwellers will never outnumber city folks again' up: ‘3 billion increase in urban population’ (this is from today to 2050) going nowhere: ’no change in rural population’ (this is from today to 2050) graph: the build of the three pie charts we had from 1950, 2017 to 2050 (please add a white white border to the circles) bullets: 1 - Urbanisation will put enormous pressure on cities 2 - 600 cities will account for 65% of global GDP in 2025 3 - This equates to a proportionally higher energy consumption, pollution, etc Combine this with energy consumption that is statistically higher in cities than in rural areas and show the multiplicative effect Can show this with the up-arrows as well, try to make a calculation for a ‘typical’ middle city in China growing from say 5 mio to 10 mio within 20 years (Shenzhen as example from the past translated into a future city)
- Slide 6 using WIREFRAME without the bullets, Title: 'Economic power is moving to Asia' up: left hand side the same three arrows we had in the trend 2 with the same text graph: Peter may have a link to a map that shows (a) a normal world map, (b) a distorted world map where GDP has been projected and influenced the size of countries (the closest I could find is http://www.viewsoftheworld.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/GDPGrowth2010-2015.jpg). Peter would like to start with the ‘real’ map, then jump forward 25 years at a time from e.g. 1950 and forwards (e.g. four builds for the years of 1950, 1975, 2000, 2025). We will then also have a bar to the right of this map showing the change in GDP in real currency numbers on the right hand side (starting low and going up). I suggest you ask Peter for this link when you talk to him. Once we know if this is doable we can easily find global GDP numbers which should be easy. bullets: 1 - Asia is reclaiming its historic role as dominant economic region 2 - The power shift will lead to many unknown consequences 3 - TBD good chart, just need the animation starting with a geographical map and the moving to economic GDP distribution in animation
- Slide 7 using WIREFRAME, Title: 'Digitization connects people, devices and businesses at an exponential rate' up: ‘100 billion connected devices’ up: ‘Ecosystems' down: ’Disconnected organisations' graph: We need an IoT graph with lots of interconnections bullets: 1 - The digital transformation affects all traditional businesses 2 - Decision power is moving from boardrooms to consumers 3 - 100 billion connected devices changes the society fabric let’s keep the same numbers as in other presentations, where we say 200 billion things by 2025, combine with the HCC chart that shows the uptake of devices and the speed of adoption, insert tis graphic (improved from the original rather crude black & white graphic) in the graphics corner together with the Internet Of Everything charts (like right one better, but there are even better ones)
- Slide 8, Title: ‘Mega-trends have an extreme affect on cities' Here we will have a new but different type of graph, see GRAPH-SLIDE8: these 6 trends - putting pressure on a city (in the middle) - pressure on the city (pollution, energy consumption, congestion, health issues). Trend chart: The left trends are the headlines of the charts before, show a picture of a mega city in the middle with smog and traffic congestion, ideally including a power plant. Improve the arrows – maybe just show a block-arrow Population growth Ageing population Increase in disposable income Urbanization Economic shift east Information Age
- Slide 9, using WIREFRAME, Title: 'There is hope' up: 'women’s education’ up: ‘disposable income' down: ‘poverty' graph: 'fertility going down' (we reuse the fertility graph) bullets: 1 - Doesn’t solve the problem the next 30 years 2 - Requires a re-think of how we consume resources 3 - TBD There is hope: need to work on the wording) combine charts falling fertility and population growth peaking, need to show that this is coming too late – still two generations of unprecedented growth ahead – need to do something different, NOW! https://www.pop.org/content/no-need-population-control
- Slide 10, using WIREFRAME, Title: ‘There is hope' up: 'sharing economy' down: 'owning economy' graph: A picture including logos from Uber, AirBnB, LendingClub, Prosper, HomeAway, lyft, freelancer, chegg, trademe, ebay, etsy* bullets: 1 - Individuals want to move from egosystems to ecosystems 2 - Ownership is becoming less and less important 3 - Convenience and cost will be key factors in the future *) http://venturebeat.com/2015/06/04/the-sharing-economy-has-created-17-billion-dollar-companies-and-10-unicorns/ Show the general trend to share in the economy from bigger to very small consumer (or investment) goods airplanes – houses – cars – mobility – globally also with the advent of UBER, Airbnb, public transport etc., will have to work on wording strongly here
- Slide 10, using WIREFRAME, Title: ‘There is hope' up: 'sharing economy' down: 'owning economy' graph: A picture including logos from Uber, AirBnB, LendingClub, Prosper, HomeAway, lyft, freelancer, chegg, trademe, ebay, etsy* bullets: 1 - Individuals want to move from egosystems to ecosystems 2 - Ownership is becoming less and less important 3 - Convenience and cost will be key factors in the future *) http://venturebeat.com/2015/06/04/the-sharing-economy-has-created-17-billion-dollar-companies-and-10-unicorns/ Show the general trend to share in the economy from bigger to very small consumer (or investment) goods airplanes – houses – cars – mobility – globally also with the advent of UBER, Airbnb, public transport etc., will have to work on wording strongly here
- Chart “Need to Understand the World as Interconnected Ecosystems”; two critical ingredient are communication of any element to any other element in a timely, safe and secure manner and data. Draw the chart based on the graphics used in the other ecosystems charts…
- Slide 13 - ‘A smart city strategy equates to a collaborative top-down and bottom-up approach' picture: re-use the top-down bottom-up slide. Top-down & bottom-up: need to reword and reverse: ‘A world upside down’: governments will need to provide the infrastructure of a digital backbone and services including public data (Government top down, but infrastructure bottom up) and the individuals can do service to exploit the digital backbone quasi OTT over the top (top-down) be it persons / communities / socials circles of any kind / SMEs or large enterprise; message must be we need to do both!
- Slide 14: 'A common ecosystem language is necessary' graph: The DERA picture (you also had it in Nice, will send you Peter’s HCC keynote just in case via DropBox in case it will be needed) Please make sure the various ecosystems are overlapping and interconnected – at least partially. Important for the massage and already used before.
- Slide 15 Next chart (new) to be value chart – see below. Can also reverse left to right i.e. starting with digital on left and ending with positive impact on city diseases on the right hand side. Complicated chart but showing the various positive effects of digital approaches to the city’s problems. The boxes should be impacted by green lines and showcasing that the red boxes become gradually greener as we implement more and more such digital solutions.
- Sldie 16 - Final chart: message: “digital transformation and collaboration can make a better world” – picture of a digital city that has a warm and welcoming, peaceful image