1) The document discusses lifetime value (LTV) of mobile games and how it is impacted by factors like retention, monetization, and live operations over time. 2) It provides data on typical key performance indicators (KPIs) like retention, ARPDAU, and LTV for different genres and shows how LTV can grow beyond 30 days of play. 3) The author advocates using player retention and monetization curves to more accurately project long-term LTV and how live operations like new content can increase monetization and retention over the lifetime of the game.

1. 1
Lifetime Value
The long tail of mid-core mobile games
1
S A N F R A N C I S CO 2 0 1 7 | # G D C 1 7
Tammy Levy
Director of Product

2. Publishing 2
Director of Mobile Product
Tamara Levy

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Kongregate
Web Platform
100,000+ Uploaded Games
Mobile Publisher
30+ Games
100M+ Downloads

4. 4
Games that grow
The two ends of the funnel

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Build Games That Can Grow
Goal: ROI Positive
Higher LTV
Strong Game Mechanics
Lower CPI
Approachable Art
Positive ROI
LTV > CPI
> =

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UA Costs by Theme and Genre
CPI widely vary based on the game’s theme theme, art style and genre
Casual: Low CPIs Mid-Core: Medium CPIs Core: High CPIs
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UA Costs by Theme and Genre
CPI widely vary based on the game’s theme theme, art style and genre
Known IPs: Low CPIs Fantasy: Medium CPIs Sci-Fi: High CPIs
Casual: Low CPIs Mid-Core: Medium CPIs Core: High CPIs
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8. 7
Core design decisions drive core KPIs
(There are always exceptions)
Incremental / Clicker
AdCap
RTS
Star Squad
CCG & RPG
BattleHand
Arcade
Tiny Sea Adventure
Runner
Bullet Boy
KPIs by Genre
Genres have performance “bands”

9. 8
KPIs by Genre
Mode: most frequent behavior
genre # of games d1 d7 d30 aprdau
ltv (180
days)
CCG & RPG 7+ 35% 10% 3% $0.30 - $1.00 $1.5 - $5.0
RTS 4 40% 20% 10% $0.10 - $0.20 $1.3 - $3.5
Idle /
Incremental
5+ 45% 25% 15% $0.08 $1.5
Runner 5 35% 8% 1% $0.03 $0.10
Arcade 5 20% 5% 1% < $0.01 $0.02
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10. 8
KPIs by Genre
Mode: most frequent behavior
genre # of games d1 d7 d30 aprdau
ltv (180
days)
CCG & RPG 7+ 35% 10% 3% $0.30 - $1.00 $1.5 - $5.0
RTS 4 40% 20% 10% $0.10 - $0.20 $1.3 - $3.5
Idle /
Incremental
5+ 45% 25% 15% $0.08 $1.5
Runner 5 35% 8% 1% $0.03 $0.10
Arcade 5 20% 5% 1% < $0.01 $0.02
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11. 8
KPIs by Genre
Mode: most frequent behavior
genre # of games d1 d7 d30 aprdau
ltv (180
days)
CCG & RPG 7+ 35% 10% 3% $0.30 - $1.00 $1.5 - $5.0
RTS 4 40% 20% 10% $0.10 - $0.20 $1.3 - $3.5
Idle /
Incremental
5+ 45% 25% 15% $0.08 $1.5
Runner 5 35% 8% 1% $0.03 $0.10
Arcade 5 20% 5% 1% < $0.01 $0.02
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12. 8
KPIs by Genre
Mode: most frequent behavior
genre # of games d1 d7 d30 aprdau
ltv (180
days)
CCG & RPG 7+ 35% 10% 3% $0.30 - $1.00 $1.5 - $5.0
RTS 4 40% 20% 10% $0.10 - $0.20 $1.3 - $3.5
Idle /
Incremental
5+ 45% 25% 15% $0.08 $1.5
Runner 5 35% 8% 1% $0.03 $0.10
Arcade 5 20% 5% 1% < $0.01 $0.02
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Impressions
Installs
Return Rate
Early Retention
Elder Engagement
LTV
Funnel Optimization
Every step matters

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Funnel Optimization
Every step matters
10
Impressions
Installs
Return Rate
Early Retention
Elder Engagement
LTV

15. 11
Looking beyond early KPIs
After all, LTV is lifetime value

16. 12
Player Retention
12
Time in Game
retention

17. 13
Early Retention
Comparison: Raid Brigade has much stronger d1-d7 retention
13
Raid Brigade
Tyrant
Unleashed
genre ARPG CCG
d1 36% 22%
d7 13% 7%
d30 3% 3%

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Elder Retention
Looking beyond d30
Raid Brigade
Halves every 30 day period
8% retained from d30 to d180
45%
58%
67%
48%

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Elder Retention
Looking beyond d30
Tyrant Unleashed
Similar starting point (d30)
Players who retain after d30, stay for a long time
40% retained from d30 to d180
66%
84%
88%
79%

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Looking Beyond
d1 - d30 doesn’t tell the whole story
Raid Brigade
d1 = 36%
d180 = 0.24%
Tyrant Unleashed
d1 = 22%
d180 = 1.1%

21. 17
Look beyond d30
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22. 18
Lifetime Spend
18
Desire to Spend
arpdau

23. 19
Lifetime Spend
Comparison: Tyrant’s LTV is more than double
19
Raid Brigade
Tyrant
Unleashed
genre ARPG CCG
d1 36% 22%
d7 13% 7%
d30 3% 3%
arpdau $0.40 $0.63
ltv (180d) $1.9 $4.7

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Comparing d30 LTV
Tyrant 10% higher due to stronger ARPDAU

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Comparing d30 LTV
Tyrant 10% higher due to stronger ARPDAU
$1.56
$1.42

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Comparing d180 LTV
Tyrant LTV grows faster
$4.71
$1.97

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Rate of Growth
Slope => How fast does LTV grow?

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Rate of Growth
Slope => How fast does LTV grow?
1. Linear Regression
2. Slope

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Rate of Growth
Slope => How fast does LTV grow?
slope =
0.005
1. Linear Regression
2. Slope
or just use excel’s
slope formula

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Rate of Growth
The longer players stay => the larger their investment
slope =
0.02

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Comparing Growth
Tyrant Unleashed vs. Raid Brigade
slope =
0.02
slope =
0.005

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Comparing d180 LTV
Different games, different growth patterns
CCG2
RPG
Idle
CCG1
CCG3
CCG1 3x CCG3

33. 26
LTV Growth can accelerate after d30
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34. 27
Lifetime Value
27
* =
Player Value
ltv
Time in Game
retention
Desire to Spend
arpdau

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Projecting LTVs
Simple LTV calculation
Area under the retention curve
Player Lifetime
ARPDAU
Player Value by Day
*

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Accuracy
Similar to retention
Use the monetization curve
29
Projecting LTVs
Use retention and monetization curves

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Accuracy
Similar to retention
Use the monetization curve
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Projecting LTVs
Use retention and monetization curves

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Projecting LTVs
Daily revenue comes from players of all ages

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Projecting LTVs
Spend patterns vary by game and genre
Highest spend on d0
Some growth after d80
Upfront Spend
Lowest spend on d0
Spend doubles from d0 to d90
Deep Monetization

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Flat ARPDAU
6 mo. LTV: $1.60
32
Projecting LTVs
Example A: Upfront Monetization
1

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Flat ARPDAU
6 mo. LTV: $1.60
32
Projecting LTVs
Example A: Upfront Monetization
ARPDAU Curve
6 mo. LTV: $1.36
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2

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Flat ARPDAU
6 mo. LTV: $2.02
33
Projecting LTVs
Example B: Deep Monetization
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Flat ARPDAU
6 mo. LTV: $2.02
33
Projecting LTVs
Example B: Deep Monetization
ARPDAU Curve
6 mo. LTV: $2.62
1
2

44. 34
Spending curve to project LTVs
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45. 35
Live servicing is crucial
Maximizes long term KPIs

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Content Cadence
New content, regularly
Limited time packs and bundles
IncreaseIncrease

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Content Cadence
New content, regularly
Limited time packs and bundles Increase revenue baseline
IncreaseIncrease

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Higher price points offset fewer purchases
37
Target Different Player Types
Different approaches, similar lifts
Lower price points generate more purchases

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Limited Time Events
Adding content without hurting core play modes

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Limited Time Events
Adding content without hurting core play modes

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Limited Time Events
Adding content without hurting core play modes

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Monetization Growth
Competitive Events: Players are more likely to monetize

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Servicing Elder Players
Live PvP released as one year celebration

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Servicing Elder Players
Live PvP released as one year celebration

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Long Term Retention
Look beyond d30
Key Takeaways
Projecting LTV
Use the spending curve for
more accurate LTVs
LTV Growth
LTV can accelerate after d30

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Thank you
@KongregateDevs
developers.kongregate.com/blog
tammy@kongregate.com