This presentation, given at the 2013 San Francisco Writers Conference, examines 10 big publishing industry trends that will shape the future for authors, publishers and readers alike. Presented by Mark Coker, founder of Smashwords, an ebook distributor.

1. How the Ebook Revolution Will
Transform Your Career
February 15, 2013
Mark Coker
Founder, Smashwords
Twitter: @markcoker

2. My Backstory

4. My Answer: Smashwords
• FREE ebook publishing platform
• Ebook printing press
• Distribution to major ebook stores
• Best practices knowledge

5. How Smashwords Works
1. UPLOAD
• Upload a Microsoft Word file or .epub file
• For sale in minutes
1. DISTRIBUTE
• Distribution to major retailers
1. GET PAID
• Author receives 85% of net

6. Self-pubished ebooks published
at Smashwords
191,000
200000
150000
92,000
100000
28,800
50000 6,000
140
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

7. Let’s talk about your future as a writer.

8. Once you know where the industry is
going, you’ll know your future

9. 10 TRENDS THAT WILL TRANSFORM THE
FUTURE OF AUTHORSHIP

10. TREND ONE:
Reading Moving to Screens

11. Screens are the new paper

12. A blast from the past: Ebook
market share in 2008
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: Association of American Publishers, publishers.org.

13. Ebooks as a percentage of US
wholesale trade market
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Source: Association of American Publishers, publishers.org. 2012 Smashwords estimate

14. Ebooks to overtake print
Print books
Ebooks
Print books
Ebooks
Dollars Units

15. Why ebooks are hot
• Screens offer better reading experience than
paper
•
Changeable font size A B C D
• Portable and compact
• Ebooks offer better consumption experience
• Lower cost than print
• Convenient sampling and purchasing
• Huge selection

16. TREND TWO
Bookselling moving to the
Web

17. Percentage of book purchases
made online vs B&M, Print and E-
Web
Brick &
Mortar
Today?

18. Bookselling moves to the Web
• Brick and mortar stores
disappearing
• Decline of print
• Consumer drivers:
• Price
• Convenience
• Selection
• Self-published books displayed
side by side with traditional books
• Big publishers losing control
distribution

19. TREND THREE
Democratization of Publishing

20. Authors gain the tools to e-
publish
• Ebook printing press is free to all
• Ebook distribution free to all
• The knowledge of professional best
practices if free and available to all

21. Publishers losing their monopoly
• Writers no longer need publishers to
publish, distribute and sell
• Writers asking:
• “What can a publisher do for me that I can’t
do for myself?”
• “Will a publisher actually harm my ability to
reach readers?”

22. TREND FOUR
The Rise of Ebook Self-Publishing
(a.k.a indie ebook publishing)

23. Indies are Now Out-Publishing
Big Publishers
• Self-published ebooks scaling all the
bestseller lists
• Multiple Smashwords authors have hit New York
Times bestseller list in the last year
• Every week, indie ebooks in retailer bestseller lists
of every retailer
• Retailers giving indies seat at merchandising
table

24. Indies are Now Out-Publishing
Big Publishers
• Indie ebook author advantages
• faster time to market
• greater creative control
• lower expenses
• better distribution to global market
• Immortal ebooks never go out of print
• lower prices to consumers
• earn more per book

25. QUADRUPLE +

26. Indie Ebook Authors Earn Higher
Percentage of List Price
Indie Traditional
60-80% 12-17%
• Indies earn more at lower prices
• At $2.99, indies earn $1.80. Trad. author would
have to price at $10-$15.00
• Lower price = reach more readers = more sales at
higher profits per sale
• Higher price = reach fewer readers

27. TREND FIVE
Traditionally published authors
suffering from high prices

28. Book buyers are price sensitive

29. Authors Yield Two Benefits from
Every Sale
1. Money from the sale
• Unit sales X royalty per unit = profit
1. Gain a fan
• Fans spread word of mouth, recruit new
fans
• Fans eagerly await your next book
• Fans are less price sensitive
 Pricing strategy essential to maximize
both

30. How Price Impacts Units Sold

31. What Price Yields Greatest
Earnings?

32. How to interpret the data on
preceding two pages:
Titles priced under $1.99 generally underperform
on gross author earnings
Not a huge difference in earnings whether you
price at $2.99 or $10.00+, YET, at $2.99 books
achieved over 6 times as many unit sales.
If you can earn approximately the same selling
low price as high price, then price lower and
reap the platform and fan-building benefit of unit
sales. More readers = more potential fans.
The data was aggregated from over 50,000 titles
across fiction and non-fiction (mostly fiction).
Keep in mind that every book will behave
differently. Experiment and see what works for
you.

33. TREND SIX
Content Explosion Leads to
Downward Pressure on Prices

34. Number of books published indie
vs. traditional
Indie
books
New trad.
books
Today

35. Glut leads to ebook price
competition
$4.25
$3.00
October 2010 December 2012
Average price of Smashwords ebooks

36. ... Impact of content explosion
• The glut will only become more
pronounced
• Excess supply leads to price
competition
• Lower prices increase affordability and
accessibility
• More books will be read than ever before
• Readers will still pay for books
• Can publishers drop prices to $2.99-
$3.99?

37. TREND SEVEN
Print is Dead for Most Self-
Published Authors
(and will become less and less
important to traditionally published
authors)

38. Print is Dead
• Brick and mortar bookstores disappearing
• Most self-pubbed authors don’t have access
to brick and mortar distribution
• Customers choosing low cost ebooks over
high-priced print books
• Exceptions:
• Face to face print sales will continue
• Some books are meant for print (for now)
• Specialty souvenir books sold in non-traditional
outlets

39. TREND EIGHT
(Your ENGLISH-language) Ebooks
are going global

40. The Global Ebook Opportunity
• Countries outside the US are entering the
exponential phase of their ebook growth
• Ebook retailers going global
• Apple iBookstore (50), Amazon (10), Kobo (14), B&N
(U.K.+)
• 46% of Smashwords/iBookstore sales global

41. TREND NINE
Big NY Publishers getting into self
publishing

42. In July, the parent company of
Penguin acquired Author Solutions
Author Solutions earns over 2/3 of its
income selling over-priced services to
authors
$25,000 publishing packages!
Blood sucking parasites

43. Ebook self-publishing can be fast, free and easy if you do it
yourself. Cover design is cheap (under $300 usually).
Spend for the cover, it’s worth it. Editing is expensive, but
valuable if you find a great editor, but if you need to borrow
money to pay for it, don’t do it.
Print self-publishing can be free or extremely low-cost
Tip: I’m not opposed to authors hiring professionals to help
take their book to the next level. Shop around. Ask fellow
authors for references. View the individual service
professional’s portfolio. Work directly with the service
provider person (artist, editor, etc) rather than through a
service bureau intermediary like ASI who will mark up.
Remember that most ebooks sell poorly, so it’s difficult to
earn back your money. If you can’t afford an editor, barter
with fellow writers, and leverage beta readers. See Secret
#12 later for more cautionary guidance to protect yourself
from harm.

44. TREND TEN
The Previous Stigma of Self-
Publishing is Disappearing

45. Stigmas to reverse
Aspire Aspire
Traditional Indie
Aspire
Indie
Aspire
Traditional
4 yrs ago Today? Future?

46. The Plan Forward

47. The Old Model for Reaching Readers
Author -> Agent -> Publisher ->
-> Bookstore -> Reader

48. The New Option for Reaching Readers
Author -> Agent -> Publisher ->
-> Bookstore -> Reader
Consider using a distributor like Smashwords to reach more retailers, save time
by centrally managing distribution through the SW Dashboard, get aggregated
sales reporting, payments and tax reporting. If you can find a great agent, great,
they can be powerful business partners.

49. Which model is better than the other?
Neither. Both have their attributes.
Many successful authors will straddle
both worlds

50. You have options
today that didn’t exist
back in the dark ages
of publishing (5 years
ago)

51. YOU’RE IN CHARGE NOW

52. The 10 Trends Create a Future that
benefits self-published authors more than
traditionally published authors

53. You are your own gatekeeper

54. YOU decide when and how your
manuscript becomes a PUBLISHED
BOOK

55. The task before you is not easy.
It requires hard work.
Most books don’t sell well.
yet…

56. The Opportunity to Reach Readers
Has Never Been Greater

57. Honor your readers
Give them great books that are as
good or better than those released
by Big Publishers
(and do it faster with great covers
and lower prices)

58. Thanks for considering the future.
E-publishing resources next slide…

59. Free Ebook Publishing Resources
• Secrets to Ebook Publishing Success (best practices of
successful authors)
• Smashwords Book Marketing Guide (how to market any
book)
• Smashwords Style Guide (how to format an ebook)

60. Q&A
Connect with Mark Coker and Smashwords:
Web: www.smashwords.com
Blog: blog.smashwords.com
LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/markcoker
Facebook: facebook.com/markcoker
HuffPo: huffingtonpost.com/mark-coker
Twitter: @markcoker