1. 10 Trends Driving the Future of Book
Publishing
PUBLISHING: EVOLUTION, DISRUPTION & THE FUTURE
June 12, 2013
Mark Coker
Founder, Smashwords
Twitter: @markcoker

2. My Backstory

4. Publishers Said “No”
• Despite the great efforts of
our agent, every major New
York publisher said NO
(TWICE!)

5. I evaluated our options
1. The rational option
 Accept failure, give up and cry
1. The irrational option
 Believe in ourselves
 Fix the problem

6. I Contemplated the Problem

7. I imagined millions of other writers
just like us
Silenced

8. I Concluded…
• The old model of print
publishing was broken
• Print publishing had become
harmful to…
 Writers
 Readers
 Publishers
 Books

9. The Culture of “NO”
• Risk mitigation leads to a “Culture
of NO”
• Most authors rejected
• Publishers unable to take a risk on every
author
• Publishers rejecting “Black Swans,” books
that would have become hits and classics

10. I contemplated the opportunity
• What would happen if someone
could say YES to EVERY writer?

11. My Answer: Smashwords
Launched in 2008
• FREE ebook publishing platform
• FREE ebook printing press
• Distribution to major ebook stores
• Share best practices secrets

12. How Smashwords Works
1. UPLOAD
• Upload a Microsoft Word file, formatted to
our Smashwords Style Guide
• Ready for immediate sale online
1. DISTRIBUTE
• Distribution to major retailers
1. GET PAID
• Author receives 85% of net

13. 0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Ebooks published at Smashwords
140
6,000
28,800
92,000
191,000
230,000
June 2013

14. Enough about me.
Let’s talk about your future as an author or
publisher

15. WE LIVE IN UNCERTAIN TIMES

16. CHANGE BRINGS BOTH THREAT AND
OPPORTUNITY TO AUTHORS AND
PUBLISHERS

17. YOUR REACTION DETERMINES YOUR
OUTCOME

18. Let’s examine the forces of change, and
what these changes mean for your future

19. 10 TRENDS THAT WILL TRANSFORM THE
FUTURE OF PUBLISHING

20. TREND ONE:
The Rise of Ebooks

21. Screens are the new paper

22. A blast from the past: US ebook
market share in 2008
Source: Association of American Publishers, publishers.org.
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

23. Ebooks as a percentage of US
wholesale trade market
Source: Association of American Publishers, publishers.org. 2012 Smashwords estimate
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

24. Ebooks to overtake print
Print books
Ebooks
UnitsDollars
Print books
Ebooks

25. Why ebooks are hot
• Screens offer better reading experience than
paper
•
Changeable font size A B C D
• Ebooks offer better consumption experience
• Lower cost than print
• Convenient sampling and purchasing
• Huge selection

26. TREND TWO
Bookselling moving to the
Web

27. US Percentage of book purchases
made online vs B&M, Print and E-
Brick &
Mortar
Web
Today?

28. Bookselling moves to the Web
• Brick and mortar stores
disappearing
• Decline of print
• Consumer drivers:
• Price
• Convenience
• Selection
• Implications for publishers…

29. TREND THREE
Democratization of Publishing

30. Publishers Once Controlled
Publishing
• Publishers controlled the…
• Printing press
• Access to retail distribution
• The knowledge necessary for
professional publishing

31. Today, authors have free tools to
e-publish
• FREE ebook printing press
• Ebook distribution available to all
• The knowledge of professional
best practices is free and
available to all

32. Publishers losing their monopoly
• Writers no longer need publishers to
publish, distribute and sell
• Writers asking two dangerous
questions:
1. Do I need a publisher?
2. Will a publisher harm my ability to reach
readers?

33. TREND FOUR
Self Published Ebook Authors
Gaining Competitive Advantage
over Publishers

34. Benefits of Indie Authorship
• Indie ebook author advantages
• faster time to market
• greater creative control
• lower expenses
• better distribution to global market
• immortal ebooks never go out of print
• lower prices to consumers
• earn more per book

35. QUADRUPLE +

36. Indie Ebook Authors Earn Higher
Percentage of List Price
• Indies earn more at lower prices
• At $2.99, indies earn ~$2.00. Trad. author
would have to price at $10-$15.00
• Lower price = reach more readers = more
sales at higher profits per sale
• Higher price = reach fewer readers
60-80% 12-17%
Indie Traditional

37. TREND FIVE
Traditionally published authors
suffering from high prices

38. Book buyers are price sensitive

39. Authors Yield Two Benefits from
Every Sale
1. Money from the sale
• Unit sales X royalty per unit = profit
1. Gain a reader
• Readers lead to more readers
 Pricing strategy essential to maximize
both

40. How Price Impacts Units Sold

41. What Price Yields the Greatest
Author Earnings?

42. TREND SIX
Print is Dead for Most Self-
Published Authors
(and will become less and less
important to traditionally published
authors)

43. Print is Dead
• Brick and mortar bookstores disappearing
• Most self-pubbed authors don’t have access
to brick and mortar distribution
• Customers choosing low cost ebooks over
high-priced print books
• Exceptions:
• Face to face print sales will continue
• Some books are meant for print (for now)
• Specialty souvenir books sold in non-traditional
outlets

44. TREND SEVEN
Ebooks are going global

45. The Global Ebook Opportunity
• Countries outside the US are entering the
exponential growth phase of their ebook
markets
• Ebook retailers going global
• Apple iBookstore (51 countries), Amazon (12), Kobo
(14+), B&N (US, U.K.+)
• 44% of Smashwords/iBookstore sales global

46. TREND EIGHT
Big NY Publishers getting into self
publishing

47. In July 2012, the parent company of
Penguin acquired Author Solutions
Author Solutions earns over 2/3 of its
income selling over-priced services to
authors
$25,000 publishing packages!
Blood sucking parasites

48. TREND NINE
The Previous Stigma of Self-
Publishing is Disappearing

49. Stigmas to reverse
Aspire
Traditional
Aspire
Indie
Today?
Aspire
Indie
Aspire
Traditional
5 yrs ago Future?

50. TREND TEN
Indie Authors Are Beginning to
Outsell Traditionally Published
Authors

51. Indies are Now Out-Publishing
Big Publishers
• Self-published ebooks scaling all
the bestseller lists
• Every week, indie ebooks in retailer
bestseller lists of every retailer
• Multiple Smashwords authors have
hit New York Times bestseller list in
the last year
• Prediction: Within three years, most
bestselling ebooks will be self-
published ebooks

52. June 11, 2013 at Apple
iBookstore
• Abbi Glines with
Forever Too Far
• #1 Worldwide today

53. The Plan Forward

54. The 10 Trends Create a Future that
Benefits Self-Published Authors and…
Disadvantages Publishers

55. The Plan Forward for Writers
• You’re in charge now
• You decide when you graduate
from writer to published author
• Honor your readers
• You have the opportunity to
publish…
• Faster
• Smarter
• More profitably
• at lower prices

56. The Plan Forward for Publishers
• The good news: You’re still needed
• Not all writers want to self-publish
• The bad news: It’ll get more difficult to
add value in excess of your toll
• Do for authors what they cannot and
will not do for themselves
• Abandon culture of NO

57. Final Thoughts
• There’s never been a better time to
reach readers with the magic of books
• Traditional Publishing vs. Indie is not
an either/or
• There’s never been a better time to be
in publishing
• Add value!

58. Thanks for considering the future.

59. Free Ebook Publishing Resources
• Secrets to Ebook Publishing Success (best practices of
successful authors)
• Smashwords Book Marketing Guide (how to market any
book)
• Smashwords Style Guide (how to format an ebook)

60. Thank you for considering the
future!
Q&A
Connect with Mark Coker and Smashwords:
Web: www.smashwords.com
Blog: blog.smashwords.com
LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/markcoker
Facebook: facebook.com/markcoker
HuffPo: huffingtonpost.com/mark-coker
Twitter: @markcoker