Many wind turbine operators that own GE 1.5MW turbines are considering to either uprate (using e.g. GE PowerUp) or derate their GE turbine fleet. Unfortunately, the impact on reliability, especially on the gearbox, through uprating or derating is unknown using standard industry techniques. This results in uncertainties that do not allow the operators to estimate the financial impact of uprating or derating correctly.

1. Investigating the Impact of Uprating
or Derating for the GE 1.5 MW
Science

2. Sentient Science is Based on Three Fundamental Capabilities
We are the leader in model-based
Investigating the Impact of Uprating or Derating for the GE 1.5 MW
November 12th, 2014
11/19/2014
prognostics
Model-based, multi-physics based
prognostics computational
technologies and services
Our applications help extend the
remaining useful life (RUL) of new
and existing mechanical systems
We reduce friction and improve
performance of bearings, gears,
drivetrains and mechanical systems
We are a “killer” application for the
Industrial Internet
The newest prognostics health
management (PHM) application for
condition-based maintenance (CBM)

3. Sentient Science Family
Investigating the Impact of Uprating or Derating for the GE 1.5 MW
November 12th, 2014
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4. Objectives
Total Costs
Income
Profit
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2
Investigating the Impact of Uprating or Derating for the GE 1.5 MW
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Simplified financial calculation example

5. Up/Down-rating options
Investigating the Impact of Uprating or Derating for the GE 1.5 MW
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Change control logic
(e.g. pitch control)
Vortex generators
Different blade sizes

6. Questions
1) What is the current baseline
reliability?
2) How does re-rating affect the current
reliability?
3) How does re-rating affect the current
Profit/ROI?
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2
Investigating the Impact of Uprating or Derating for the GE 1.5 MW
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Simplified financial calculation example

7. DigitalClone®
Nucleation and Propagation Model
Investigating the Impact of Uprating or Derating for the GE 1.5 MW
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Fully Operational Failure

8. DigitalClone Live®
for Wind Turbines
Investigating the Impact of Uprating or Derating for the GE 1.5 MW
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FulFlyu FOlluypl lOey rpOaetpiroaentriaoltnioanlal FailureFailuFreailure

9. Wind Loads
Avg. Wind Speed
Wind
Shear
Investigating the Impact of Uprating or Derating for the GE 1.5 MW
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Turbulence
Intensity
(source: Erich Hau, “Windkraftanlagen”, Springer Verlag, 1988)
SCADA
supervisory control
and data acquisition

10. Dynamic Wind Analysis
Investigating the Impact of Uprating or Derating for the GE 1.5 MW
November 12th, 2014

11. Wind Loads
15
10
0 ( - 1-2 month)
Investigating the Impact of Uprating or Derating for the GE 1.5 MW
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Vortex Generator
Uprating to 1.56MW
( - 6-8 month)
Standard
5
5
45
85
125
165
205
245
285
325
365
405
445
485
525
565
605
645
685
725
765
805
845
885
% of total time
Torque in kNm

12. GE 1.5 MW SLE
Investigating the Impact of Uprating or Derating for the GE 1.5 MW
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Example Weibull distribution
Winergy 4410-2

13. Clipper C-96
Investigating the Impact of Uprating or Derating for the GE 1.5 MW
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14. Multi-scale Approach
System
Level
Component
Level
Investigating the Impact of Uprating or Derating for the GE 1.5 MW
November 12th, 2014
Microstructure
Level
• Operation
Conditions
• Reaction forces
• Displacements
• Vibration
• Local elastic-plastic
deformation
• Contact
pressure
• Micro-level
stress
• Crack initiation
• Probabilistic
fatigue life
prediction

15. Fleet/Site Level Reports
Investigating the Impact of Uprating or Derating for the GE 1.5 MW
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16. Asset Level Reports
Investigating the Impact of Uprating or Derating for the GE 1.5 MW
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17. System Level Reports
Investigating the Impact of Uprating or Derating for the GE 1.5 MW
November 12th, 2014

18. Conclusion
• Many owners and operations are uprating their GE 1.5 to generate
more energy
• DigitalClone calculates the remaining useful life of the GE 1.5
gearbox and components when uprating to understand impacts
• There are optimal control and O&M strategies that can be
implemented for the GE 1.5 to get the highest overall ROI
• Simulation scenarios also include RUL calculations for up tower
parts replacement scenarios
Investigating the Impact of Uprating or Derating for the GE 1.5 MW
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19. Investigating the Impact of Uprating
or Derating for the GE 1.5 MW
Investigating the Impact of Uprating or Derating for the GE 1.5 MW
November 12th, 2014
Science