On October 23rd, 2014, we updated our
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Understanding Questions Finishing Forms Self Consciousness Don’t Know Asking the wrong questionsQuestions that shape possible answers Setting expectations
Have you stopped beating your wife?Would you vote for a woman for president if shewere qualiﬁed in every other way?Does it seem possible or does it seem impossibleto you that the Nazi extermination of the Jewsnever happened? (34% negative)Are you certain the Holocaust happened? (1%negative)
Observed/BehavioralDigital is data Just pay attentionEverything is recorded
Data never tells the whole truthBut most of the time it’s people who screw up
Correlation vs Causation
100 80 60Sales 40 20 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Month
Potential customers cost $2.68What is a viewer worth?
Qualitative vs Quantitative Descriptive Numerical Observed Measured Disagreement Units possible Requires Speaks for itself interpretation Counting is not measurement
Tell me about your day? Great! I awoke at 0600. A I got up early, the passenger held a train weather was great, door for me. Thepeople on the subway median temperaturewere nice, lunch was was 72ºF, and Igreat and I felt good! consumed 1700
Data from Another Source What is the source? Who collected it? Who analyzed it? Why was it commissioned? What is the perspective/agenda?
Binaries don’t existMore than one thing can be true Don’t put people in boxes Life is analog
20151050 0 3.75 7.5 11.25 15 Assumptions can be dangerous
Data should raise questions
http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/walkingsf/ One dot equals 25 people. White Black Hispanic Asian
http://blog.okcupid.com/1.51 Million Active Users 43,397 Tests
http://blog.okcupid.com/ Messages a man gets, by Age and Income 20 30 40 50 18 19 21222324 25 26 272829 313233 34 3536 37 3839 4142 4344 4546 4748 49>100K 100K 80K 70K 60K 50K 40K 30K <20K (Observed) Messages received per week by percentile 10th 50th 100th
http://blog.okcupid.com/ (Self-reported)Lowest High School Graduation rate nationwide
http://blog.okcupid.com/ Would you consider role- Would you rather lose the playing a rape fantasyright to bear arms or vote? with a partner who asked you to?
http://blog.okcupid.com/ 4:1 male to female suicides 2:1 female to male attempts afsp.org
http://blog.okcupid.com/More gay curious Less gay curious
What questions does this raise?How can I test my assumptions?What problem do I want to solve?
What’s the Goal? 18 16 Malfunction 14 AccidentFailure Rate (%) 12 10 8 6 4 2 iPhone 3GS Blackberry MotorollaAxis X HTC iPhone 4 Other http://www.squaretrade.com/