Climate change could have far-reaching consequences for human health across the 21st century. At the same time, development choices will alter underlying vulnerability to these risks, affecting the magnitude and pattern of impacts. The current and projected human health risks of climate change are diverse and wide-ranging, potentially altering the burden of any health outcome sensitive to weather or climate. Climate variability and change can affect morbidity and mortality from extreme weather and climate events, and from changes in air quality arising from changing concentrations of ozone, particulate matter, or aeroallergens. Altering weather patterns and sea level rise also may facilitate changes in the geographic range, seasonality, and incidence of selected infectious diseases in some regions, such as malaria moving into highland areas in parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Changes in water availability and agricultural productivity could affect undernutrition, particularly in parts of Asia and Africa. These risks are not independent, but will interact in complex ways with risks in other sectors. Policies and programs need to explicitly take climate change into account to facilitate sustainable and resilient societies that effectively prepare for, manage, and recover from climate-related hazards.

1. Climate and Health
Kristie L. Ebi, Ph.D., MPH
University of Washington

2. Slide courtesy of Dr. George Luber, CDC

3. IPCC 2014

5. • Reduce exposures
• Legislative policies
• Alterations in built
environment
• Alterations in natural
environment
• Prevent onset of
adverse outcomes
• Early warning systems
• Surveillance and
monitoring
• Vector control
programs
• Public education and
outreach
• Response / treatment
• Medical training and
awareness
• Treatment
• Emergency response

7. Semenza et al. 1996

8. McGheehin

9. • May-June heatwave
in India:
temperatures
reached 48°C, killing
about 2,500 people
in multiple states
• 18-20 June 2015
heatwave in
Pakistan:
temperatures
reached 49°C, killing
about 2,000 people
2015 heatwaves in India and Pakistan

10. Hazard, vulnerability, and heat-related
mortality
Dong et al. 2015

11. Projecting health effects in Scania using
natural cubic splines and B-splines
Rocklov & Ebi 2012

12. The health impacts of
thermal extremes are not
limited to mortality. There
are significant adverse social
impacts with reduced worker
productivity.
Photo: BBC News 2000
Photo: CBS News 2002
Impacts of thermal extremes

15. Projections 2030
Fann et al. 2015

16. Prevalence of stunting in children under
5 years (2005)
Onis et al. 2010

17. %age simulated change in wheat yields as a function
of local temperature change
IPCC 2014
Temperate regions Tropical regions
Local mean temperature change (°C)
1 5 12 3 4 2 3 4 5

18. IPCC 2014

19. FAO 2015
• In 2012, 366 million
people in 20 countries
lived in protracted crisis
– 129 million were
undernourished or 19% of
the global total of food-
insecure people
• Prevalence of
undernourishment in
these countries was 39%
compared with 15% for
the rest of the world
Typology of crises shifted over the past 30 years to more structural,
longer-term, and protracted situations resulting from a combination
of factors, especially natural disasters and conflicts, with climate
change increasingly among the exacerbating factors

20. % change in nutrients in elevated vs.
ambient CO2
Myers et al. 2014

21. 432,000 mt
2050 A2
2100 A2
Loukos et al. 2003; maps P. Lehodey
1,727,000 m tons/yr
Skipjack tuna
Russia
2050 A2
2100 A2
c. 2000

22. Nurse advice calls for GI symptoms on
consecutive dry or wet days, Gothenburg
Tornevi et al. 2013

23. Risk of diarrheal disease with climate change
South America
Kolstad 2011
North Africa Middle East
Equatorial Africa Southern Africa Southeast Asia

24. Projected population at risk of malaria due to
climate change
Caminade et al. 2014

25. Risk maps for the
occurrence of the
Lyme disease vector
from 1971-2000 to
2080s;
slow and fast scenarios
Ogden et al. 2008

26. Weighted risk analysis of climate change impacts
on infectious disease risks in Europe
Lindgren et al. 2012

27. Cluster
dendrogram
of drivers
contributing
to observed
infectious
disease
threat
events in
Europe,
2008-2013
Semenza et al. 2016

28. Cartogram of the annual number of dengue
infections as a proportion of nation or subnational
(China) geographic area
Bhatt et al. 2013

29. Biophysical influences on dengue ecology showing the
interactions between climate variables, vectors, and the virus
Morin et al. 2013

30. Airport final destination of international
travelers from dengue affected areas
Semenza et al. 2014

34. Projected dengue distribution 2085
Messina et al. 2015

35. Hii et al. 2012
Singapore Dengue Early Warning System
Based on weekly
mean temperature
and cumulative
rainfall

36. Vibrio parahaemolyticus infections by harvest
date and mean daily water temperature
McLaughlin et al. 2005

37. Estimates of mortality due to climate change,
2030s: approximately 250,000 excess deaths/year
WHO 2014

38. IPCC 2014

40. Co-benefits – early health gains from
wise climate moves
Shifting 5% of short urban
car trips to bicycles in New
Zealand would save annually
- 22 million liters of fuel
- 116 deaths due to
increased physical activity
(vs. 5 extra road crash
deaths)
- $200 million in health
costs
ANZJPH 2011

41. Shared socioeconomic pathways
O’Neill et al. 2015
Fossil-fueled
development
Regional
rivalry
Middle of the road
Sustainability Inequality