Presentation to Innovate Australia Energy Innovation Network Wednesday, 14 September 2016 from 1:30 PM to 4:30 PM (AWST) Entreprise Room - Innovation Centre WA More info from http://raywills.net/rtwtechadopt.html

1. Preparing for the 21C tech tsunami
@ProfRayWills
Prof Ray Wills
Managing Director
Future Smart Strategies
Partner and Director
Sun Brilliance Power
Adjunct Professor
The University of Western Australia

2. How to be a
better surfer
 What’s happening
globally with
new tech?
 Where is all this
new tech taking us?
 What do markets tell us all about how quickly disruptive
technologies will impact on everything?
 How do we prepare ourselves and our towns and cities for
mind-boggling rapid change?
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.
(Niels Bohr)
@ProfRayWills

3. Roger’s diffusion curve
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4. Wake up and smell the roses
 Buggy whips -> combustion engine -> EVs?
 (Electric) typewriter -> word processor -> PC
 PC -> desktop -> laptop -> tablet
 Landline -> mobile -> smartphone (BlackBerry)
 Record shops Vinyl -> CD -> (Apple Store)
 VHS/Beta -> DVD -> BlueRay -> Cloud
 Book Shops Boutique -> mega -> (Amazon)
 Retail shop-> Boutique-> chain/mega -> Internet
 Energy -> chopping wood -> coal -> wind -> solar
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5. Technology adoption rates – US
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6. Technology adoption rates – US
 Renewables – ‘it’s just technology, stupid’
 Solar panels are VCRs, not dishwashers
 Batteries will be, too
@ProfRayWillsNY Times

7. The Big Bang Theory
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8. Technology adoption rates - vehicles
Zoepf 2011

9. Technology adoption - manufacturers
Zoepf 2011

10. Technology adoption rates - Govt
Zoepf 2011

11. A Brief Moment in Time

12. Predicting anything is difficult

13. Predicting anything is difficult
@ProfRayWills
And don’t forget
the old tech exit

14. Declining PV price
Bloomberg NEF

15. Solar rising – by falling
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16. Global renewables growth …
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17. Global renewables growth and forecast
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18. Don’t forget
the old tech exit

19. Build it and they will come
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20. Storage will be simply a common commodity
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21. A swarm, a cluster, a wave, a tsunami
 20th Century: Command and Control
21st Century: Suggest & Choose
– local, distributed, democratic
– open source, exponential innovation
 Renewable energy, EVs, batteries
 eRetail and market-led marketing
 iEverything – Internet of Things (IoT) + sensors
 Automation, hybrids, AI & CI, robotics, robility
 3D printing, additive manufacturing, construction
 Finance, banking, insurance – and crowd-funding
Suggest & Choose driving supply chain from bottom
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22. @ProfRayWills

23. Data driven electric markets …
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24.  Autonomous
Rapid change
- robility

25. Batteries – home storage + EVs

26. Solar gen 2, gen 3, gen 4 …
 1st gen solar cell made from silicon
2nd gen solar cell thin-films
 1st gen solar panels ‘fixed-on’
2nd gen emerging – building material: < cost labour, material
 3rd gen solar cell – may be nanotubes, silicon wires, organic
dyes, and conductive plastics – lead to solar inks for printing,
solar paint on any surface, personal wearables.

27. Solar as just another consumer product

28. Solar on Australian homes
 1.6 million solar installs in Australia, total 5 GW of capacity; output
estimated 6100 GWh of electricity in the 12 months to June 2016.
 WA – 207k rooftops with solar, a total of 600 MW of solar capacity
 Mandurah (postcode 6210) – over 9.6k homes, 23.3 MW of capacity

29. Solar in Western Australian towns


30. WA’s largest …
 Sun Brilliance 100MW+ DC solar
 165ha farm Cunderdin
WA wheatbelt, east of Perth
 Development to break new
ground on a number of fronts in
the Australian solar market
 Not shutting capacity – taking it
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31. Solar and storage fight energy poverty
 Developing nations can meet modest domestic power
needs with solar.
 Means storage is already economically affordable.

32. We need governments to act …
Wind
Efficiency Solar
Biomass
Hydro Waves/Tidal
Hydrothermal
Geothermal

33. We need governments to act – but…
 World faiths promising to act

34. We need governments to act – but…
 Companies promising to act

35. World’s largest …
 taxi company owns no taxis (Uber)
 hotel chain owns no property (AirBnB)
 telcos own no wires (Skype, WeChat)
 retailers own no stock (Ebay, Alibaba)
 financial houses that hold no currency (PayPal)
 media service creates no content (Facebook)
 movie house owns no cinemas (Netflix)
 software vendors don’t write apps (Apple, Google)
Will largest energy companies generate no energy?
The battle field is the slickest customer interface
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36. @ProfRayWills