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Preparing for the 21C tech tsunami
@ProfRayWills
Prof Ray Wills
Managing Director
Future Smart Strategies
Partner and Director
Sun Brilliance Power
Adjunct Professor
The University of Western Australia
How to be a
better surfer
 What’s happening
globally with
new tech?
 Where is all this
new tech taking us?
 What do markets tell us all about how quickly disruptive
technologies will impact on everything?
 How do we prepare ourselves and our towns and cities for
mind-boggling rapid change?
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.
(Niels Bohr)
@ProfRayWills
Roger’s diffusion curve
@ProfRayWills
Wake up and smell the roses
 Buggy whips -> combustion engine -> EVs?
 (Electric) typewriter -> word processor -> PC
 PC -> desktop -> laptop -> tablet
 Landline -> mobile -> smartphone (BlackBerry)
 Record shops Vinyl -> CD -> (Apple Store)
 VHS/Beta -> DVD -> BlueRay -> Cloud
 Book Shops Boutique -> mega -> (Amazon)
 Retail shop-> Boutique-> chain/mega -> Internet
 Energy -> chopping wood -> coal -> wind -> solar
@ProfRayWills
Technology adoption rates – US
@ProfRayWillsNY Times
Technology adoption rates – US
 Renewables – ‘it’s just technology, stupid’
 Solar panels are VCRs, not dishwashers
 Batteries will be, too
@ProfRayWillsNY Times
The Big Bang Theory
@ProfRayWills
Technology adoption rates - vehicles
Zoepf 2011
Technology adoption - manufacturers
Zoepf 2011
Technology adoption rates - Govt
Zoepf 2011
A Brief Moment in Time
Predicting anything is difficult
Predicting anything is difficult
@ProfRayWills
And don’t forget
the old tech exit
Declining PV price
Bloomberg NEF
Solar rising – by falling
@ProfRayWills
Global renewables growth …
@ProfRayWills
Global renewables growth and forecast
@ProfRayWills
Build it and they will come
@ProfRayWills
Storage will be simply a common commodity
@ProfRayWills
Global energy – fossil & renewables
Global energy – fossil & renewables
Global energy – impact on emissions
A swarm, a cluster, a wave, a tsunami
 20th Century: Command and Control
21st Century: Suggest & Choose
– local, distributed, democratic
– open source, exponential innovation
 Renewable energy, EVs, batteries
 eRetail and market-led marketing
 iEverything – Internet of Things (IoT) + sensors
 Automation, hybrids, AI & CI, robotics, robility
 3D printing, additive manufacturing, construction
 Finance, banking, insurance – and crowd-funding
Suggest & Choose driving supply chain from bottom
@ProfRayWills
@ProfRayWills
Data driven electric markets …
@ProfRayWills
Potential EV growth
 Autonomous
Rapid change
- robility
Batteries – home storage + EVs
Robotics will aid every one – but erode every
labor market
Robotics will aid every one – but erode every
labor market
Traffic management will be controlled by
traffic – social media data
@ProfRayWills
Solar gen 2, gen 3, gen 4 …
 1st gen solar cell made from silicon
2nd gen solar cell thin-films
 1st gen solar panels ‘fixed-on’
2nd gen emerging – building material: < cost labour, material
 3rd gen solar cell – may be nanotubes, silicon wires, organic
dyes, and conductive plastics – lead to solar inks for printing,
solar paint on any surface, personal wearables.
Solar as just another consumer product
Solar on Australian homes
 1.6 million solar installs in Australia, total 5 GW of capacity; output
estimated 6100 GWh of electricity in the 12 months to June 2016.
 WA – 207k rooftops with solar, a total of 600 MW of solar capacity
 Mandurah (postcode 6210) – over 9.6k homes, 23.3 MW of capacity
Solar in Western Australian towns

WA’s largest …
 Sun Brilliance 100MW+ DC solar
 165ha farm Cunderdin
WA wheatbelt, east of Perth
 Development to break new
ground on a number of fronts in
the Australian solar market
 Not shutting capacity – taking it
@ProfRayWills
Solar and storage fight energy poverty
 Developing nations can meet modest domestic power
needs with solar.
 Means storage is already economically affordable.
Smart grids devices and buildings –
and microgrids…
 Integrated energy planning smart devices (not grids) to
coordinate the actions of devices such as loads &
generators
 Distributed generation changes utility paradigm
We need governments to act …
Wind
Efficiency Solar
Biomass
Hydro Waves/Tidal
Hydrothermal
Geothermal
We need governments to act – but…
 World faiths promising to act
We need governments to act – but…
 Companies promising to act
World’s largest …
 taxi company owns no taxis (Uber)
 hotel chain owns no property (AirBnB)
 telcos own no wires (Skype, WeChat)
 retailers own no stock (Ebay, Alibaba)
 financial houses that hold no currency (PayPal)
 media service creates no content (Facebook)
 movie house owns no cinemas (Netflix)
 software vendors don’t write apps (Apple, Google)
Will largest energy companies generate no energy?
The battle field is the slickest customer interface
@ProfRayWills
@ProfRayWills

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Preparing for the (Clean) Tech Tsunami of the 21st Century

  • 1. Preparing for the 21C tech tsunami @ProfRayWills Prof Ray Wills Managing Director Future Smart Strategies Partner and Director Sun Brilliance Power Adjunct Professor The University of Western Australia
  • 2. How to be a better surfer  What’s happening globally with new tech?  Where is all this new tech taking us?  What do markets tell us all about how quickly disruptive technologies will impact on everything?  How do we prepare ourselves and our towns and cities for mind-boggling rapid change? Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. (Niels Bohr) @ProfRayWills
  • 4. Wake up and smell the roses  Buggy whips -> combustion engine -> EVs?  (Electric) typewriter -> word processor -> PC  PC -> desktop -> laptop -> tablet  Landline -> mobile -> smartphone (BlackBerry)  Record shops Vinyl -> CD -> (Apple Store)  VHS/Beta -> DVD -> BlueRay -> Cloud  Book Shops Boutique -> mega -> (Amazon)  Retail shop-> Boutique-> chain/mega -> Internet  Energy -> chopping wood -> coal -> wind -> solar @ProfRayWills
  • 5. Technology adoption rates – US @ProfRayWillsNY Times
  • 6. Technology adoption rates – US  Renewables – ‘it’s just technology, stupid’  Solar panels are VCRs, not dishwashers  Batteries will be, too @ProfRayWillsNY Times
  • 7. The Big Bang Theory @ProfRayWills
  • 8. Technology adoption rates - vehicles Zoepf 2011
  • 9. Technology adoption - manufacturers Zoepf 2011
  • 10. Technology adoption rates - Govt Zoepf 2011
  • 11. A Brief Moment in Time
  • 13. Predicting anything is difficult @ProfRayWills And don’t forget the old tech exit
  • 15. Solar rising – by falling @ProfRayWills
  • 16. Global renewables growth … @ProfRayWills
  • 17. Global renewables growth and forecast @ProfRayWills
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  • 19. Build it and they will come @ProfRayWills
  • 20. Storage will be simply a common commodity @ProfRayWills
  • 21. Global energy – fossil & renewables
  • 22. Global energy – fossil & renewables
  • 23. Global energy – impact on emissions
  • 24. A swarm, a cluster, a wave, a tsunami  20th Century: Command and Control 21st Century: Suggest & Choose – local, distributed, democratic – open source, exponential innovation  Renewable energy, EVs, batteries  eRetail and market-led marketing  iEverything – Internet of Things (IoT) + sensors  Automation, hybrids, AI & CI, robotics, robility  3D printing, additive manufacturing, construction  Finance, banking, insurance – and crowd-funding Suggest & Choose driving supply chain from bottom @ProfRayWills
  • 26. Data driven electric markets … @ProfRayWills
  • 29. Batteries – home storage + EVs
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  • 31. Robotics will aid every one – but erode every labor market
  • 32. Robotics will aid every one – but erode every labor market
  • 33. Traffic management will be controlled by traffic – social media data @ProfRayWills
  • 34. Solar gen 2, gen 3, gen 4 …  1st gen solar cell made from silicon 2nd gen solar cell thin-films  1st gen solar panels ‘fixed-on’ 2nd gen emerging – building material: < cost labour, material  3rd gen solar cell – may be nanotubes, silicon wires, organic dyes, and conductive plastics – lead to solar inks for printing, solar paint on any surface, personal wearables.
  • 35. Solar as just another consumer product
  • 36. Solar on Australian homes  1.6 million solar installs in Australia, total 5 GW of capacity; output estimated 6100 GWh of electricity in the 12 months to June 2016.  WA – 207k rooftops with solar, a total of 600 MW of solar capacity  Mandurah (postcode 6210) – over 9.6k homes, 23.3 MW of capacity
  • 37. Solar in Western Australian towns 
  • 38. WA’s largest …  Sun Brilliance 100MW+ DC solar  165ha farm Cunderdin WA wheatbelt, east of Perth  Development to break new ground on a number of fronts in the Australian solar market  Not shutting capacity – taking it @ProfRayWills
  • 39. Solar and storage fight energy poverty  Developing nations can meet modest domestic power needs with solar.  Means storage is already economically affordable.
  • 40. Smart grids devices and buildings – and microgrids…  Integrated energy planning smart devices (not grids) to coordinate the actions of devices such as loads & generators  Distributed generation changes utility paradigm
  • 41. We need governments to act … Wind Efficiency Solar Biomass Hydro Waves/Tidal Hydrothermal Geothermal
  • 42. We need governments to act – but…  World faiths promising to act
  • 43. We need governments to act – but…  Companies promising to act
  • 44. World’s largest …  taxi company owns no taxis (Uber)  hotel chain owns no property (AirBnB)  telcos own no wires (Skype, WeChat)  retailers own no stock (Ebay, Alibaba)  financial houses that hold no currency (PayPal)  media service creates no content (Facebook)  movie house owns no cinemas (Netflix)  software vendors don’t write apps (Apple, Google) Will largest energy companies generate no energy? The battle field is the slickest customer interface @ProfRayWills