FTTH @ last

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Looking back it is hard to think of another telecom technology that has seen more debate, more vacillation, and less real action than FTTH. But now I think we can safely assume that we have a ‘green …

Looking back it is hard to think of another telecom technology that has seen more debate, more vacillation, and less real action than FTTH. But now I think we can safely assume that we have a ‘green light’ and deployment is not an option. The debate is now; ‘not if or when’, but how? For those looking for the one true FTTH solution I say there is no silver bullet – more a menu of options that each country/company will have to choose from to meet local needs.

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  • 1. FTTH @ Last ? Peter Cochrane cochrane.org.uk ca-global.org COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e sFriday, 13 January 12
  • 2. The debate has lasted a long long time...Friday, 13 January 12
  • 3. What we know for sure!Friday, 13 January 12
  • 4. There are no silver bullets!Friday, 13 January 12
  • 5. No killer apps!Friday, 13 January 12
  • 6. No ‘one’ topology or ‘one’ technology !Friday, 13 January 12
  • 7. There are no mysteries either - we have known sufficient for decades to make the right choices !Friday, 13 January 12
  • 8. Decades of operating experience, roll outs, studies, and engineering give us 20:20 vision !Friday, 13 January 12
  • 9. Long lines optical fibre •Revolutionised telecoms •Sidelined microwave radio •Sidelined satellites •Enabled the internet •Reduced manpower > 80% •Reduced faults > 99% •Increased capacity > 106 •Vastly reduced costs •Vastly improved profit marginsFriday, 13 January 12
  • 10. Local loop optical fibre • Technically viable 1984 • Economically viable 1986 • In manufacture 1990 • Far East roll out ~1993 • UK roll out ~1991 • UK cancellation 1991Friday, 13 January 12
  • 11. What was on offer • Reduced switch sites >90% • Reduced staffing > 70% • Reduced truck rolls > 95% • Infinite bandwidth • Endless upgradability • Remote programability • Customer autonomy • Vastly reduced costs • Vastly improved profit margin • New business opportunitiesFriday, 13 January 12
  • 12. How big an investment? In 1992 - for an EU Telco only 3 - 5 years of profit !Friday, 13 January 12
  • 13. What went wrong ? •Vested interests •Limited thinking •A lack of real understanding - technology - economics - customers - markets •The false promise of copper •An inability to changeFriday, 13 January 12
  • 14. ...and a string of really dumb questions followed... Why would anyone want :- • 64kbit/s • 256kbit/s • 1Mbit/s • 10Mbit/s • 100Mbit/s • 1000Mbit/s ...and what would they use it for ?Friday, 13 January 12
  • 15. Can you imagine.... Why do you want to travel at:- • 20km/h • 40km/h • 60km/h • 80km/h • 100km/h • 120km/h ...and what are you going to use this car for ?Friday, 13 January 12
  • 16. And the specification.... Up to 100 km/l Depends on driving conditions, a strong tail wind, and long downhill slopeFriday, 13 January 12
  • 17. It is as if an industry chose to ignore all e v i d e n c e , m a r ke t pressure, customer demand, IT progress & the next industrial revolution...Friday, 13 January 12
  • 18. So perhaps we should be looking at the bigger picture...Friday, 13 January 12
  • 19. Sustainability cannot be realised with old technologies and old industry models...Friday, 13 January 12
  • 20. Changing all the light bulbs and tinkering at the edges won’t cure this problem..Friday, 13 January 12
  • 21. We have to stop doing things like this and find planet (and people) friendly alternatives...Friday, 13 January 12
  • 22. Underused video conference is a sign of the lack of network bandwidth and connectivity... ...it does not signify a lack of need, demand, or suitable technology !Friday, 13 January 12
  • 23. Home, remote, and working on the move are obvious winners too... ...but only if you can get the bandwidth and connectivity you need...Friday, 13 January 12
  • 24. But there is widespread frustration at the extremely low bandwidth and poor connectivity available today ...Friday, 13 January 12
  • 25. It undermines and prevents the widespread use of the latest technologies...Friday, 13 January 12
  • 26. < 7 % of internet ready TV sets can gain access at sufficient speed to be useable...Friday, 13 January 12
  • 27. I collected these Global average test results over the past year as I travelled the planet... Global averageFriday, 13 January 12
  • 28. d !! I collected these o rl w ic Global average test results over e tr m the past year as I sy m a travelled the an planet... n ot is t IT B u Global averageFriday, 13 January 12
  • 29. Bandwidth & connectivity present the ultimate road block to our progress...Friday, 13 January 12
  • 30. Our future and that of the planet lies in the hands of new technologies and new models for industry and society...Friday, 13 January 12
  • 31. I only have time to illustrate this with a few samples of some of the biggest changes on the horizon....Friday, 13 January 12
  • 32. It all hinges on the the next tech hot spot.... ...and the next industrial revolution Nano Bio IT + AIFriday, 13 January 12
  • 33. It all hinges on the the next tech hot spot.... ...and the next industrial revolution Nano Bio IT + AI This is where all the real action is going to beFriday, 13 January 12
  • 34. Moving on from bulk materials and the destruction of resources... ...3D printing is going mainstream in industry... and soon it will be in every office and homeFriday, 13 January 12
  • 35. It is revolutionising the way we think of design & production... ...enabling new ways to realize c o m p l e x s t r u c t u re s , a n d integrated components...Friday, 13 January 12
  • 36. In the extreme it will change everything... ...and we have to think in terms of shipping designs and not goods...Friday, 13 January 12
  • 37. Hardware Access OPEN Networks SoftwareFriday, 13 January 12
  • 38. Hardware Access OPEN Networks SoftwareFriday, 13 January 12
  • 39. Hardware ig n D es t Access en lo pm D e ve OPEN on bu ti Networks i st ri on D a ti n ov In SoftwareFriday, 13 January 12
  • 40. Bridging the organic and the biological to create new materials and capabilities...Friday, 13 January 12
  • 41. Programming materials to form 3D objects of predefined shape & function...Friday, 13 January 12
  • 42. Sensors and decoding the genome in minutes will change medicine and care... ...whilst the decoding the protein will lead to a new chapter for the human race...Friday, 13 January 12
  • 43. We can now manipulateindividual atoms andprogram cell by cell...Friday, 13 January 12
  • 44. And our machines aredesigning machines...Friday, 13 January 12
  • 45. And our machines aredesigning machines...Friday, 13 January 12
  • 46. Still at an infantile stage - part magic - part reality...Friday, 13 January 12
  • 47. AI for the professions and the masses via The Cloud...Friday, 13 January 12
  • 48. And there is so much more... • Social nets use GPS to go real • Machine to machine + robotics • Telepresence for maintenance • Logistics and RFID + tracking • Vehicle and people tracking • Appliance and device tracking • Dynamic energy management • Interactive books & newspapers • Interactive media • The death of radio,TV, print +++Friday, 13 January 12
  • 49. Huh ! Run that past me one more time: The e c o n o m i c c a s e fo r FTTH is unproven ??Friday, 13 January 12
  • 50. No one is seeing or forecasting a downturn in net traffic...Friday, 13 January 12
  • 51. The ‘potential’ gap is huge for new services and new applications...Friday, 13 January 12
  • 52. New thinking is required, but there are exemplar companies and countries from which to learn... • Japan • Korea • China • Scandinavia • ++++ • Jersey (Channel IslandsFriday, 13 January 12
  • 53. The biggest challenges facing the netco industry ? • History • Old mindsets • Old models • Existing operations • Vested interests • ChangeFriday, 13 January 12
  • 54. The most recent net/ telco transformation... • 1Gbit/s bi-directional • 100% ducted - no overhead • WiFi + 3G in every terminal • Fibre to every company completed • FTTH roll out underwayFriday, 13 January 12
  • 55. A few specifics... • Fibre roll from periphery to core • Address high net worths first • Small housing clusters next • Encourage self install • Encourage community action • 100% Ethernet • 1 NGN for fixed & mobile • Point to point fibre • Office grade equipment • Mobile only - SIP on demand • PSTN + MPLS ClosureFriday, 13 January 12
  • 56. Customer access... • Open access 3G • Open access WiFi • Upgrade to 4/5G later • Guard the fibre connection • Leave all RG45 access open • Get customers to wire their ownFriday, 13 January 12
  • 57. The island-wide vision... • FTTH & Office @ 1Gbit/s • Hybrid wireless where necessary •Seamless wireless access everywhere • Open to all users on all devices • 3G @ 14Mbit/s • 4G, 5G when available • WiFi @ > 50Mbit/s • WiMax as requiredFriday, 13 January 12
  • 58. And migrate the business model into new services...Friday, 13 January 12
  • 59. And what of the future, what’s over the horizon for the industry... ...is there more?Friday, 13 January 12
  • 60. And what of the future, what’s over the horizon for the industry... ...is there more?Friday, 13 January 12
  • 61. Oh yes , and it demands even more bandwidth and connectivity?Friday, 13 January 12
  • 62. Where you are ? Oh yes , and it Where you have been ? Where you are likely to be going to ? demands even Who you have met ? more bandwidth Who you are going to meet ? Who you call ? and connectivity? Who calls you ? Who you TXT - IM - Link ? All your contacts All your urls All you passwords What you are doing now ? What have you done in the past ? What games you play ? What apps you use ? What music you listen to...? What you watch...? What you read...? ++++++++++Friday, 13 January 12
  • 63. And the £, $, € is in the MetaData...Friday, 13 January 12
  • 64. ca-global.org cochrane.org.uk Thank You COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e sFriday, 13 January 12