FTTH @ last

FTTH @ Last ? Peter Cochrane cochrane.org.uk ca-global.org COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e sFriday, 13 January 12

The debate has lasted a long long time...Friday, 13 January 12

What we know for sure!Friday, 13 January 12

There are no silver bullets!Friday, 13 January 12

No killer apps!Friday, 13 January 12

No ‘one’ topology or ‘one’ technology !Friday, 13 January 12

There are no mysteries either - we have known sufﬁcient for decades to make the right choices !Friday, 13 January 12

Decades of operating experience, roll outs, studies, and engineering give us 20:20 vision !Friday, 13 January 12

Long lines optical ﬁbre •Revolutionised telecoms •Sidelined microwave radio •Sidelined satellites •Enabled the internet •Reduced manpower > 80% •Reduced faults > 99% •Increased capacity > 106 •Vastly reduced costs •Vastly improved proﬁt marginsFriday, 13 January 12

Local loop optical ﬁbre • Technically viable 1984 • Economically viable 1986 • In manufacture 1990 • Far East roll out ~1993 • UK roll out ~1991 • UK cancellation 1991Friday, 13 January 12

What was on offer • Reduced switch sites >90% • Reduced staffing > 70% • Reduced truck rolls > 95% • Infinite bandwidth • Endless upgradability • Remote programability • Customer autonomy • Vastly reduced costs • Vastly improved profit margin • New business opportunitiesFriday, 13 January 12

How big an investment? In 1992 - for an EU Telco only 3 - 5 years of proﬁt !Friday, 13 January 12

What went wrong ? •Vested interests •Limited thinking •A lack of real understanding - technology - economics - customers - markets •The false promise of copper •An inability to changeFriday, 13 January 12

...and a string of really dumb questions followed... Why would anyone want :- • 64kbit/s • 256kbit/s • 1Mbit/s • 10Mbit/s • 100Mbit/s • 1000Mbit/s ...and what would they use it for ?Friday, 13 January 12

Can you imagine.... Why do you want to travel at:- • 20km/h • 40km/h • 60km/h • 80km/h • 100km/h • 120km/h ...and what are you going to use this car for ?Friday, 13 January 12

And the speciﬁcation.... Up to 100 km/l Depends on driving conditions, a strong tail wind, and long downhill slopeFriday, 13 January 12

It is as if an industry chose to ignore all e v i d e n c e , m a r ke t pressure, customer demand, IT progress & the next industrial revolution...Friday, 13 January 12

So perhaps we should be looking at the bigger picture...Friday, 13 January 12

Sustainability cannot be realised with old technologies and old industry models...Friday, 13 January 12

Changing all the light bulbs and tinkering at the edges won’t cure this problem..Friday, 13 January 12

We have to stop doing things like this and ﬁnd planet (and people) friendly alternatives...Friday, 13 January 12

Underused video conference is a sign of the lack of network bandwidth and connectivity... ...it does not signify a lack of need, demand, or suitable technology !Friday, 13 January 12

Home, remote, and working on the move are obvious winners too... ...but only if you can get the bandwidth and connectivity you need...Friday, 13 January 12

But there is widespread frustration at the extremely low bandwidth and poor connectivity available today ...Friday, 13 January 12

It undermines and prevents the widespread use of the latest technologies...Friday, 13 January 12

< 7 % of internet ready TV sets can gain access at sufﬁcient speed to be useable...Friday, 13 January 12

I collected these Global average test results over the past year as I travelled the planet... Global averageFriday, 13 January 12

d !! I collected these o rl w ic Global average test results over e tr m the past year as I sy m a travelled the an planet... n ot is t IT B u Global averageFriday, 13 January 12

Bandwidth & connectivity present the ultimate road block to our progress...Friday, 13 January 12

Our future and that of the planet lies in the hands of new technologies and new models for industry and society...Friday, 13 January 12

I only have time to illustrate this with a few samples of some of the biggest changes on the horizon....Friday, 13 January 12

It all hinges on the the next tech hot spot.... ...and the next industrial revolution Nano Bio IT + AIFriday, 13 January 12

It all hinges on the the next tech hot spot.... ...and the next industrial revolution Nano Bio IT + AI This is where all the real action is going to beFriday, 13 January 12

Moving on from bulk materials and the destruction of resources... ...3D printing is going mainstream in industry... and soon it will be in every ofﬁce and homeFriday, 13 January 12

It is revolutionising the way we think of design & production... ...enabling new ways to realize c o m p l e x s t r u c t u re s , a n d integrated components...Friday, 13 January 12

In the extreme it will change everything... ...and we have to think in terms of shipping designs and not goods...Friday, 13 January 12

Hardware Access OPEN Networks SoftwareFriday, 13 January 12

Hardware ig n D es t Access en lo pm D e ve OPEN on bu ti Networks i st ri on D a ti n ov In SoftwareFriday, 13 January 12

Bridging the organic and the biological to create new materials and capabilities...Friday, 13 January 12

Programming materials to form 3D objects of predeﬁned shape & function...Friday, 13 January 12

Sensors and decoding the genome in minutes will change medicine and care... ...whilst the decoding the protein will lead to a new chapter for the human race...Friday, 13 January 12

We can now manipulateindividual atoms andprogram cell by cell...Friday, 13 January 12

And our machines aredesigning machines...Friday, 13 January 12

Still at an infantile stage - part magic - part reality...Friday, 13 January 12

AI for the professions and the masses via The Cloud...Friday, 13 January 12

And there is so much more... • Social nets use GPS to go real • Machine to machine + robotics • Telepresence for maintenance • Logistics and RFID + tracking • Vehicle and people tracking • Appliance and device tracking • Dynamic energy management • Interactive books & newspapers • Interactive media • The death of radio,TV, print +++Friday, 13 January 12

Huh ! Run that past me one more time: The e c o n o m i c c a s e fo r FTTH is unproven ??Friday, 13 January 12

No one is seeing or forecasting a downturn in net trafﬁc...Friday, 13 January 12

The ‘potential’ gap is huge for new services and new applications...Friday, 13 January 12

New thinking is required, but there are exemplar companies and countries from which to learn... • Japan • Korea • China • Scandinavia • ++++ • Jersey (Channel IslandsFriday, 13 January 12

The biggest challenges facing the netco industry ? • History • Old mindsets • Old models • Existing operations • Vested interests • ChangeFriday, 13 January 12

The most recent net/ telco transformation... • 1Gbit/s bi-directional • 100% ducted - no overhead • WiFi + 3G in every terminal • Fibre to every company completed • FTTH roll out underwayFriday, 13 January 12

A few specifics... • Fibre roll from periphery to core • Address high net worths first • Small housing clusters next • Encourage self install • Encourage community action • 100% Ethernet • 1 NGN for fixed & mobile • Point to point fibre • Office grade equipment • Mobile only - SIP on demand • PSTN + MPLS ClosureFriday, 13 January 12

Customer access... • Open access 3G • Open access WiFi • Upgrade to 4/5G later • Guard the ﬁbre connection • Leave all RG45 access open • Get customers to wire their ownFriday, 13 January 12

The island-wide vision... • FTTH & Ofﬁce @ 1Gbit/s • Hybrid wireless where necessary •Seamless wireless access everywhere • Open to all users on all devices • 3G @ 14Mbit/s • 4G, 5G when available • WiFi @ > 50Mbit/s • WiMax as requiredFriday, 13 January 12

And migrate the business model into new services...Friday, 13 January 12

And what of the future, what’s over the horizon for the industry... ...is there more?Friday, 13 January 12

Oh yes , and it demands even more bandwidth and connectivity?Friday, 13 January 12

Where you are ? Oh yes , and it Where you have been ? Where you are likely to be going to ? demands even Who you have met ? more bandwidth Who you are going to meet ? Who you call ? and connectivity? Who calls you ? Who you TXT - IM - Link ? All your contacts All your urls All you passwords What you are doing now ? What have you done in the past ? What games you play ? What apps you use ? What music you listen to...? What you watch...? What you read...? ++++++++++Friday, 13 January 12

And the £, $, € is in the MetaData...Friday, 13 January 12

ca-global.org cochrane.org.uk Thank You COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e sFriday, 13 January 12

FTTH @ last

by Peter Cochrane

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