FTTH @ last

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Looking back it is hard to think of another telecom technology that has seen more debate, more vacillation, and less real action than FTTH. But now I think we can safely assume that we have a ‘green light’ and deployment is not an option. The debate is now; ‘not if or when’, but how? For those looking for the one true FTTH solution I say there is no silver bullet – more a menu of options that each country/company will have to choose from to meet local needs.

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FTTH @ last

  1. 1. FTTH @ Last ? Peter Cochrane cochrane.org.uk ca-global.org COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e sFriday, 13 January 12
  2. 2. The debate has lasted a long long time...Friday, 13 January 12
  3. 3. What we know for sure!Friday, 13 January 12
  4. 4. There are no silver bullets!Friday, 13 January 12
  5. 5. No killer apps!Friday, 13 January 12
  6. 6. No ‘one’ topology or ‘one’ technology !Friday, 13 January 12
  7. 7. There are no mysteries either - we have known sufficient for decades to make the right choices !Friday, 13 January 12
  8. 8. Decades of operating experience, roll outs, studies, and engineering give us 20:20 vision !Friday, 13 January 12
  9. 9. Long lines optical fibre •Revolutionised telecoms •Sidelined microwave radio •Sidelined satellites •Enabled the internet •Reduced manpower > 80% •Reduced faults > 99% •Increased capacity > 106 •Vastly reduced costs •Vastly improved profit marginsFriday, 13 January 12
  10. 10. Local loop optical fibre • Technically viable 1984 • Economically viable 1986 • In manufacture 1990 • Far East roll out ~1993 • UK roll out ~1991 • UK cancellation 1991Friday, 13 January 12
  11. 11. What was on offer • Reduced switch sites >90% • Reduced staffing > 70% • Reduced truck rolls > 95% • Infinite bandwidth • Endless upgradability • Remote programability • Customer autonomy • Vastly reduced costs • Vastly improved profit margin • New business opportunitiesFriday, 13 January 12
  12. 12. How big an investment? In 1992 - for an EU Telco only 3 - 5 years of profit !Friday, 13 January 12
  13. 13. What went wrong ? •Vested interests •Limited thinking •A lack of real understanding - technology - economics - customers - markets •The false promise of copper •An inability to changeFriday, 13 January 12
  14. 14. ...and a string of really dumb questions followed... Why would anyone want :- • 64kbit/s • 256kbit/s • 1Mbit/s • 10Mbit/s • 100Mbit/s • 1000Mbit/s ...and what would they use it for ?Friday, 13 January 12
  15. 15. Can you imagine.... Why do you want to travel at:- • 20km/h • 40km/h • 60km/h • 80km/h • 100km/h • 120km/h ...and what are you going to use this car for ?Friday, 13 January 12
  16. 16. And the specification.... Up to 100 km/l Depends on driving conditions, a strong tail wind, and long downhill slopeFriday, 13 January 12
  17. 17. It is as if an industry chose to ignore all e v i d e n c e , m a r ke t pressure, customer demand, IT progress & the next industrial revolution...Friday, 13 January 12
  18. 18. So perhaps we should be looking at the bigger picture...Friday, 13 January 12
  19. 19. Sustainability cannot be realised with old technologies and old industry models...Friday, 13 January 12
  20. 20. Changing all the light bulbs and tinkering at the edges won’t cure this problem..Friday, 13 January 12
  21. 21. We have to stop doing things like this and find planet (and people) friendly alternatives...Friday, 13 January 12
  22. 22. Underused video conference is a sign of the lack of network bandwidth and connectivity... ...it does not signify a lack of need, demand, or suitable technology !Friday, 13 January 12
  23. 23. Home, remote, and working on the move are obvious winners too... ...but only if you can get the bandwidth and connectivity you need...Friday, 13 January 12
  24. 24. But there is widespread frustration at the extremely low bandwidth and poor connectivity available today ...Friday, 13 January 12
  25. 25. It undermines and prevents the widespread use of the latest technologies...Friday, 13 January 12
  26. 26. < 7 % of internet ready TV sets can gain access at sufficient speed to be useable...Friday, 13 January 12
  27. 27. I collected these Global average test results over the past year as I travelled the planet... Global averageFriday, 13 January 12
  28. 28. d !! I collected these o rl w ic Global average test results over e tr m the past year as I sy m a travelled the an planet... n ot is t IT B u Global averageFriday, 13 January 12
  29. 29. Bandwidth & connectivity present the ultimate road block to our progress...Friday, 13 January 12
  30. 30. Our future and that of the planet lies in the hands of new technologies and new models for industry and society...Friday, 13 January 12
  31. 31. I only have time to illustrate this with a few samples of some of the biggest changes on the horizon....Friday, 13 January 12
  32. 32. It all hinges on the the next tech hot spot.... ...and the next industrial revolution Nano Bio IT + AIFriday, 13 January 12
  33. 33. It all hinges on the the next tech hot spot.... ...and the next industrial revolution Nano Bio IT + AI This is where all the real action is going to beFriday, 13 January 12
  34. 34. Moving on from bulk materials and the destruction of resources... ...3D printing is going mainstream in industry... and soon it will be in every office and homeFriday, 13 January 12
  35. 35. It is revolutionising the way we think of design & production... ...enabling new ways to realize c o m p l e x s t r u c t u re s , a n d integrated components...Friday, 13 January 12
  36. 36. In the extreme it will change everything... ...and we have to think in terms of shipping designs and not goods...Friday, 13 January 12
  37. 37. Hardware Access OPEN Networks SoftwareFriday, 13 January 12
  38. 38. Hardware Access OPEN Networks SoftwareFriday, 13 January 12
  39. 39. Hardware ig n D es t Access en lo pm D e ve OPEN on bu ti Networks i st ri on D a ti n ov In SoftwareFriday, 13 January 12
  40. 40. Bridging the organic and the biological to create new materials and capabilities...Friday, 13 January 12
  41. 41. Programming materials to form 3D objects of predefined shape & function...Friday, 13 January 12
  42. 42. Sensors and decoding the genome in minutes will change medicine and care... ...whilst the decoding the protein will lead to a new chapter for the human race...Friday, 13 January 12
  43. 43. We can now manipulateindividual atoms andprogram cell by cell...Friday, 13 January 12
  44. 44. And our machines aredesigning machines...Friday, 13 January 12
  45. 45. And our machines aredesigning machines...Friday, 13 January 12
  46. 46. Still at an infantile stage - part magic - part reality...Friday, 13 January 12
  47. 47. AI for the professions and the masses via The Cloud...Friday, 13 January 12
  48. 48. And there is so much more... • Social nets use GPS to go real • Machine to machine + robotics • Telepresence for maintenance • Logistics and RFID + tracking • Vehicle and people tracking • Appliance and device tracking • Dynamic energy management • Interactive books & newspapers • Interactive media • The death of radio,TV, print +++Friday, 13 January 12
  49. 49. Huh ! Run that past me one more time: The e c o n o m i c c a s e fo r FTTH is unproven ??Friday, 13 January 12
  50. 50. No one is seeing or forecasting a downturn in net traffic...Friday, 13 January 12
  51. 51. The ‘potential’ gap is huge for new services and new applications...Friday, 13 January 12
  52. 52. New thinking is required, but there are exemplar companies and countries from which to learn... • Japan • Korea • China • Scandinavia • ++++ • Jersey (Channel IslandsFriday, 13 January 12
  53. 53. The biggest challenges facing the netco industry ? • History • Old mindsets • Old models • Existing operations • Vested interests • ChangeFriday, 13 January 12
  54. 54. The most recent net/ telco transformation... • 1Gbit/s bi-directional • 100% ducted - no overhead • WiFi + 3G in every terminal • Fibre to every company completed • FTTH roll out underwayFriday, 13 January 12
  55. 55. A few specifics... • Fibre roll from periphery to core • Address high net worths first • Small housing clusters next • Encourage self install • Encourage community action • 100% Ethernet • 1 NGN for fixed & mobile • Point to point fibre • Office grade equipment • Mobile only - SIP on demand • PSTN + MPLS ClosureFriday, 13 January 12
  56. 56. Customer access... • Open access 3G • Open access WiFi • Upgrade to 4/5G later • Guard the fibre connection • Leave all RG45 access open • Get customers to wire their ownFriday, 13 January 12
  57. 57. The island-wide vision... • FTTH & Office @ 1Gbit/s • Hybrid wireless where necessary •Seamless wireless access everywhere • Open to all users on all devices • 3G @ 14Mbit/s • 4G, 5G when available • WiFi @ > 50Mbit/s • WiMax as requiredFriday, 13 January 12
  58. 58. And migrate the business model into new services...Friday, 13 January 12
  59. 59. And what of the future, what’s over the horizon for the industry... ...is there more?Friday, 13 January 12
  60. 60. And what of the future, what’s over the horizon for the industry... ...is there more?Friday, 13 January 12
  61. 61. Oh yes , and it demands even more bandwidth and connectivity?Friday, 13 January 12
  62. 62. Where you are ? Oh yes , and it Where you have been ? Where you are likely to be going to ? demands even Who you have met ? more bandwidth Who you are going to meet ? Who you call ? and connectivity? Who calls you ? Who you TXT - IM - Link ? All your contacts All your urls All you passwords What you are doing now ? What have you done in the past ? What games you play ? What apps you use ? What music you listen to...? What you watch...? What you read...? ++++++++++Friday, 13 January 12
  63. 63. And the £, $, € is in the MetaData...Friday, 13 January 12
  64. 64. ca-global.org cochrane.org.uk Thank You COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e sFriday, 13 January 12

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