ONEIA Presentation Supply + Demand in Ontario SolarBoreal Solar March, 2011Strictly Private and Confidential.For Discussion purposes only
Solar in Ontario = A Glass of Water The glass is half full The glass is half empty Could be $1B in solar panels sold Demand has been moderating this year, >200% growth for 2011 Evolution of the Grid to Connection issues won’t get accommodate distributed power fixed overnight and contract generation is taking place approvals have been slower than expected – what’s next? Stakeholders including government, Hydro-1, LDCs, Public awareness of the Ontario developers showing commitment FIT program is low to make Ontario solar a multi- Political uncertainty could year success translate into unwanted changes Contracts are being awarded – for solar in Ontario - rate cuts 257MW for 40 projects in rnd 2 are expected in the fall Lots of potential! Lots of risk! Where are the (Canadian) banks? Challenges provide an opportunity 2
The demand is there – we think… ClearSky Advisors expects 455MW in 2011 455MW in 2011 according to ClearSky 65 Stakeholders Down ~200MW from earlier forecast More than 200MW of RESOP Still a moving target – depends on phase 3 FIT announcement - some developers will build more aggresively 3
Suppliers are here in volume To date: New manufacturers like Heliene, Solgate, Lumin Ontario Content PV Modules Solar have been supplying MWs of panels for primarily microFIT. Sharp and UE Solar providing panels with Ontario- refined silicon from 6N Today: New supply lines from Silfab, Canadian Solar, ATS Photowatt, Celestica, Flextronics, Centennial, Eclipsall, Siliken, Suntech (6N) coming on line in H1/2011. Tomorrow: Rumoured new supply? Day 4, LDK, Motech, Sanyo Ontario Content String Inverters – KACO, SMA, Fronius, Power One, SET, Inverters PVPowered, Satcon, Sungrow, Santerno Micro Inverters – Enphase, Enecsys, Apparent, Solarian, SPARQ Micro Inverters have been a little bit behind the curve – a complex supply chain? 4
PV Module supply/demand An undersupply through H1/11, an excess supply of PV Modules in H2/11? Combined with lower cell prices (expected), 5could see a dip!
Bankability is a concern! Reliability: Is the product reliable and generating power in 20What do you mean…? years? Corporate reliability: Is the product financeable? Where? Is the company behind the product diversified? Brand equity: Is the company a “brand name”? Important when looking to sell a project... Very few diversified Sharp solar brands… Samsung (?) Sanyo Sharp has been very successful in extracting a premium in the Opportunities market even with a “new” product using 6N silicon New manufacturers need to keep bankability in mind to differentiate - 6