SemiWEEK: Coronavirus Watch. 450mm: Why it failed. Has Moore’s Law slowed?; 2019 Top Semi Equipment Suppliers; Stocks plummet

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Chip Market Research Services
Moving into unchartered territory
• Order activity for semiconductor equipment crashed 17 points
amid growing fears of a pandemic-induced recession.
• Capacity Utilization Rates
Semiconductor Analytics
Semi Market results from last week:
Semiconductor sales recovered as a rise in
prices broke the fall of units.
Semiconductor Sales Nowcast: 1Q20/1Q19
Clawed back up to +5%
– Semiconductor Weather1 Report:
COVID-19 Flu sends it to Chilly
– IC Supply-Demand2 Metrics:
Fell to Saturated
– Electronics Price Trend: Bottoming
Overall Semi Sales Status Trend:
Peaked: Mar 18 Cold with Dark Clouds: Sep 18 Freezing: Nov 18 Frozen: Jan 19
Freezing: Mar 19 Cold: May 19 Cool: July 19 Temperate: Oct 19 Sunny: Nov 19
Warm: Dec 19 Flu Chills: Feb 28
Chip History Center
Ultratech’s History in Semiconductor Manufacturing—
Founded in 1979 as Ultratech Stepper, it was the oldest
stepper company in the world until its sale to Veeco in
2017.
The Chip Insider
Strategy and Tactics: Coronavirus Watch. 450mm: Why
it failed. Has Moore’s Law slowed?
Equipment & Emerging Markets: 2019 Top
Semiconductor Equipment Suppliers
Semiconductor Stocks
• Semiconductor Stock Index plunged as all companies
finished deep in the negative
• Semiconductor Equipment Stock Index plunged, Nikon
bucked the trend
• EDA Stock Index plunged
• Electronics Materials Stock Index fell despite claiming
five of the top six
• Hottest Stocks: Tokyo Ohka, Nikon, JSR, SOITEC,
DNP, and Shin-Etsu
Semiconductor WEEK: March 20, 2020
An overview of results and conclusions from recent reports at VLSI

The Chip Insider®'s Graphics File
March 2020
Moving into unchartered territory
This issue contains the latest forecast.
Call us to access more details
• Order activity for semiconductor equipment crashed
17 points amid growing fears of a pandemic-induced
recession.
• The world economy is likely in a recession due to the
accelerating shutdown of economic activity.
• We have cut the forecasts across the board in March
to reflect the significant disruption caused by the
coronavirus pandemic in Electronics, ICs, and
Equipment. Our current projection expects a big hit to
the industry in 1H20 followed by a rapid recovery in
the second half. If the recovery is delayed, the
declines in Electronics, ICs, and Equipment will be far
greater—see the next page for more details on the
forecast scenarios.
• The Chip Price Performance Index (CPPI) slid 1 point.
• Falling end-demand will halt the IC recovery and keep
the IC market in the red in the near term.

Mild COVID-19 impact--VLSI Forecast
Forecast as of March 2020: 2019 2020 2021
Semi Equipment ($B): 76.6$ 72.8$ 85.2$
Sequential Change -8.3% -5.1% 17.2%
Capacity Utilization: 84.6% 82.1% 90.3%
ICs ($B): 352.3$ 337.4$ 418.0$
IC Units (BU): 299.4 284.8 342.1
Electronics ($B) : 2,122$ 2,020$ 2,362$
Mild COVID-19, but delayed recovery in 4Q20.
Semi Equipment ($B): 76.6$ 61.9$ 85.2$
ICs ($B): 352.3$ 303.4$ 418.0$
IC Units (BU): 299.4 255.1 342.1
Electronics ($B) : 2,122$ 1,885$ 2,362$
Severe COVID-19 impact, recovery 1Q21
Semi Equipment ($B): 76.6$ 58.4$ 85.2$
ICs ($B): 352.3$ 282.7$ 418.0$
IC Units (BU): 299.4 238.3 342.1
Electronics ($B) : 2,122$ 1,741$ 2,362$

The Chip Insider® Graphics
Capacity Utilization Rates:
• Utilization rates remain low due
to overcapacity
Capacity Utilization Rates: chart gives rolling averages for
semiconductor wafer fab, test, and assembly

Semiconductor Analytics
Last Week in the Semiconductor Market:
Overall Semi Sales Status Trend:
Peaked: Mar 18 Cold with Dark Clouds: Sep 18 Freezing: Nov 18 Frozen: Jan 19
Freezing: Mar 19 Cold: May 19 Cool: July 19 Temperate: Oct 19 Sunny: Nov 19
Warm: Dec 19 Flu Chills: Feb 28
W/W:Week-over-WeeksequentialgrowthW/Q:Week-over-QuarterW/Y:Week-over-Year
1: Measures Order Activity 2: Measures Pricing Power
5
Thank you for supporting us through this last issue
of 2018. Semiconductor Analytics will return
January .
Semiconductor sales recovered as a rise in prices
broke the fall of units. Semiconductor Supply-
Demand fell to Saturated last week as defensive
buying from the Coronavirus paused. Memory
hoarding from Korea COVID-19 fears ended.
Semiconductor Sales Nowcast: 1Q20/1Q19
Clawed back up to +5%
Semiconductor Weather1 Report: 63˚ F
COVID-19 Flu sends it to Chilly
IC Supply-Demand2 Metrics:
Fell to Saturated
Electronics Pricing Trend: Bottoming
Notebooks and CE turned up,
Smartphones down

2019 Semiconductor Market Drivers
6
Coronavirus has had a deep negative
impact on Integrated Circuit sales:
• Certainties:
– Coronavirus Pandemic
– Macroeconomic Slowdown
– 5G: Smartphone, Auto, Industrial
– Win 7 EoL refresh
– 7/10nm and 5/7nm demand ramps
– Memory Price Elasticity
• Uncertainties:
– Ability of Central Banks to prevent economic
infection from Coronavirus
– 2020 Elections in U.S.

The Chip Insider®
Strategy & Tactics
Strategy and Tactics: Coronavirus Watch. 450mm: Why it
failed. Has Moore’s Law slowed?
Summaries:
Coronavirus Semiconductor Watch: Coronavirus Semiconductor
Market Watch: Last week’s IC Sales were up over its 5-year TMA in
week+4 of the Coronavirus pandemic. Hoarding drove prices up
enough to offset the drop in units and hold up revenues. VLSI did
update its semiconductor value-stack forecast recently to account for the
likely impact of the Coronavirus based on previous forecasts. The
biggest outlook change was in the first quarter of 2020, where
semiconductor shipments were cut by 1.0B units and sales by $2B due
to the Coronavirus … The Coronavirus is now expected to cost
Electronics shipments $26.4B in in the first quarter of 2020...
450mm: Why it failed… There are a lot of reasons one can point to for
the semiconductor industry’s failure to bring 450mm silicon wafers to
fruition. One is that a consensus of its urgency never emerged among
the foundries and IDMs. Another was the thinly veiled opposition from
the semiconductor equipment and materials industry. The same could
also be said for the lack of consensus of wafer fab owners, as they all
knew the history of first-to-a-new-wafer-size. But in the end it was the
economics of Moore’s Law …
So, has Moore’s Law slowed? The answer is it depends on exactly
what you think Moore’s Law is. It means many things to many people,
but to everyone it means some form of innovation. As the chart shows,
what’s amazing about the industry-wide growth in areal density is the
semiconductor industry is still above the trendline after 55-years! We’ve
done an amazing job of delaying forever, as Gordon Moore told us to do:
“No physical quantity can continue to change exponentially forever…
Your job is delaying forever.”
What’s Happening and What’s the Meaning: Nikon reorganizes its
corporate structure. Intel’s Supplier Quality Awards announced. Lam
Research formally launched its Sense.i™ etch platform and its dry resist
process. KLA announced the Archer™ 750 overlay metrology system
and the SpectraShape™ 11k optical CD metrology system.
GLOBALFOUNDRIES announced its eMRAM had entered production
of its 22FDX platform.
Comments, Questions & Answers: Why is Intel lagging TSMC and
Samsung on moving EUV to production, when they’ve been the one to
push the hardest. What’s changed? Dan, Regarding your Coronavirus
reports of wild IC price fluctuations, it’s my understanding that most of
time lower prices come from an oversupply (supply/demand curve) but is
that not the case now?
Contact us to get the full report and more

The Chip Insider®
Equipment & Emerging Markets
2019 Top Semiconductor Equipment
Suppliers
• Key business drivers in 2019
• Leading semiconductor equipment
suppliers
• Challenging year
• 2019 Winners and notes
• WildPhotons: Even the friendliest competitor…

Key Business Drivers in 2018
• Logic/foundry saved the year for
semiconductor equipment suppliers
– Strong capacity and technology
investments, increasing CAPEX
– Continued 10nm, 7nm, and 5nm
investments
• Substantial investments in EUV
– 5G, AI, Datacenter, and Automotive
continued to be key drivers
• Memory bubble burst in late 2018 and
continued through 2019
– Memory prices collapsed and withdrew
available cashflow for equipment spending
– Second half of 2019 started to show some
signs of the recovery
• Strategic investment in 5G and
Datacenter as well as 7 & 5nm in logic
and foundries helped rapid 2H
recovery
– Positive surprise for all players led to
forecast revisions
• Equipment service and support held
pretty well due to installed base
9

2019 Top Equipment Suppliers
Challenging year resulted in only a 4% decline for top companies
10

2019 Winners and Notes
• The year was won by ALD, Process Control, EUV,
and SOC Test:
– Nikon doubled sales with 112% growth
– ASM International led ALD pack by growing 27%
– KLA grew 10%
– ASML reached flat year, while their EUV sales grew
29%
– Teradyne grew 4%
– Advantest declined 4%, while SOC test grew 23%
• Regional basis Europe based companies gained
small growth for the year:
– EU: +2%
– U.S.: -5%
– JA: -5%
– CH: -24%
• Overall 2019 was mixed based on quarterly and
segment results
– WFE experienced substantial recovery in 2H19 from
Logic and Foundry customers
– Memory reached a bottom and showed some
improvement
– Test was driven by high design and engineering
activity in 5G and datacenter
– Assembly struggled to find growth in 2019
• Substantial over capacity in multiple application slowed demand
• Weak memory demand also contributed to the decline
• The preliminary segment results show substantial
differences
11

semiStockWEEK: VLSI's Semiconductor Stock Indices plummeted with the market
again as fears surrounding COVID-19 intensified even more.
Semiconductors -14%, Equipment -17%, EDA -14%, Electronic Materials -6%.

Semiconductor Stocks:
Weekly Growth and Forward P/E Ratios by Company
VLSI’s Semiconductor Stock Index
plunged 14.2% as all companies
finished the week deep in the negative.
IDM -17.7%
Foundry & OSAT -11.8%
Fabless & Fablite -13.6%
AMD AMD Analog Devices ADI AmkorAMKR
ASE ASX Broadcom AVGO IBM IBM
Infineon IFNNY.PK Intel INTC JCET600584.SS
Kingpak Technology6238.TWO
Micron Technology MU
On Semiconductor ON Panasonic PC
MagnaChip Semiconductor MX Maxim MXIM
MaxLinear MXL MediaTek 2454.TW
NVIDIA NVDA Qualcomm QCOM
Samsung Electronics 005930.KS Silicon
Laboratories SLAB Skyworks SWKS SMIC SMI
STMicroelectronics STM
Texas Instruments TXN TSMC TSM UMC
UMC Western Digital WDC Xilinx XLNX
Weekly Gains 3/20/2020
Semiconductor Stocks
Price
Change
Forward P/E Semiconductor Stocks
Price
Change
Forward P/E
IDM Fab-lite to Fabless
Intel -15.8% 9 AMD -9.8% 25
Micron -16.0% 7 Analog Devices -14.7% 15
ON Semiconductor -25.3% 6 Broadcom -17.9% 8
Samsung Electronics -9.1% – IBM -11.6% 7
SK hynix -9.3% Infineon -28.9% 10
STMicroelectronics -22.8% 9 MagnaChip Semiconductor -7.5% 9
Western Digital -25.8% 4 Maxim -9.1% 17
Foundry & OSAT MaxLinear -21.5% 10
Amkor -13.4% 6 MediaTek -11.7% –
ASE -17.2% 8 NVIDIA -14.6% 22
JCET -5.5% 75 Panasonic -10.6% 9
Kingpak Technology -16.4% – Qualcomm -19.7% 10
SMIC -10.3% 1216 Silicon Laboratories -15.3% 19
TSMC -14.8% 13 Skyworks -11.2% 10
UMC -5.1% 8 Texas Instruments -8.0% 17
Xilinx -6.1% 22

Chip Equipment & Related Stocks:
VLSI’s Semiconductor Equipment
Stock Index plunged 16.7%, Nikon
bucked the trend, jumping 7%.
WFE -17.2%
Test -16.8%
Assembly -15%
Applied Materials AMAT Advantest ATEYY
ASM International ASMI
ASM Lithography ASML ASM Pacific 0522.HK
BE Semiconductor BESIY.PK
FormFactor FORM KLA KLAC
Kulicke & Soffa KLIC Lam Research LRCX
Onto Innovation ONTO Nikon 7731
Teradyne TER Tokyo Electron Limited 8035
Veeco VECO
Weekly Gains 0 3/20/2020
Equipment Stocks
Price
Change
Forward P/E Equipment Stocks
Price
Change
Forward P/E
Wafer Process: Test:
Applied Materials -25.3% 8 Advantest -15.0% –
ASM International -11.4% 13 Teradyne -18.8% 12
ASML -15.9% 19 FormFactor -16.7% 13
KLA -21.6% 10
Lam Research -28.2% 9 Assembly:
Onto Innovation -23.4% – BESI -14.2% –
Nikon 7.1% – Kulicke & Soffa -18.3% 9
TEL -12.4% – ASM Pacific Technology -12.6%
Veeco Instruments -23.3% 7

Electronic Materials Stocks:
VLSI’s EDA Stock Index plunged 13.6%
VLSI’s Electronics Materials Stock Index
fell 5.7% despite claiming five of the six top
performers.
BASF BASFY Cabot Microelectronics CCMP
Cadence CNDS DNP 7912 DuPont DD
JSR 4185 Shin-Etsu 4063 SOITEC
SOI.PA Synopsys SNPS Tokyo Ohka 4186
Weekly Gains 3/20/2020
EDA & Electronic Materials Stocks
Price
Change
Forward P/E EDA & Electronic Materials Stocks
Price
Change
Forward P/E
EDA DNP -3.5% –
Cadence -11.8% 21 DuPont -15.1% 4
Synopsys -15.3% 18 JSR 3.5% –
Electronic Materials Shin-Etsu -4.1% –
BASF -14.0% 2 SOITEC -1.0% –
Cabot Microelectronics -26.4% 11 Tokyo Ohka 15.3% –

Semi
Stocks
Equipment
Stocks
Materials
Stocks
EDA
Stocks
Semi
Stocks
Equipment
Stocks
Materials
Stocks
EDA
Stocks
16-Aug-19 79.7 75.2 85.0 94.9 0.1% 0.5% -1.2% -1.4% 25 8.7% -28 -8.8% 17.5% 89.2 -1.0%
23-Aug-19 78.6 74.7 85.7 95.4 -1.3% -0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 19 6.6% -35 -9.5% 16.1% 87.9 -1.4%
30-Aug-19 81.2 75.8 87.7 99.0 3.2% 1.5% 2.4% 3.8% 45 7.3% -9 -6.6% 13.9% 90.3 2.8%
06-Sep-19 84.7 79.3 91.2 101.4 4.3% 4.6% 4.0% 2.5% 53 10.2% -1 -2.8% 13.0% 91.9 1.8%
13-Sep-19 87.6 83.4 95.8 94.3 3.5% 5.2% 5.0% -7.0% 45 17.1% -8 -7.5% 24.6% 92.8 1.0%
20-Sep-19 85.4 84.5 94.5 95.0 -2.6% 1.3% -1.3% 0.8% 19 5.7% -35 -8.3% 14.0% 92.3 -0.5%
27-Sep-19 83.6 83.6 93.8 94.7 -2.1% -1.1% -0.7% -0.4% 16 3.7% -37 -12.1% 15.8% 91.4 -1.0%
04-Oct-19 84.6 84.4 93.1 96.0 1.1% 1.1% -0.8% 1.4% 34 10.1% -20 -3.5% 13.6% 91.1 -0.3%
11-Oct-19 86.0 86.4 95.0 96.0 1.7% 2.3% 2.0% 0.0% 35 9.0% -15 -4.4% 13.4% 91.7 0.6%
18-Oct-19 86.2 86.7 97.5 94.5 0.2% 0.3% 2.7% -1.5% 28 11.2% -23 -6.0% 17.2% 92.2 0.5%
25-Oct-19 88.2 92.4 100.0 94.9 2.4% 6.6% 2.5% 0.4% 46 15.6% -7 -16.3% 31.9% 93.3 1.2%
01-Nov-19 90.3 92.6 101.2 94.8 2.4% 0.2% 1.3% -0.1% 36 9.9% -15 -12.1% 22.0% 94.7 1.5%
08-Nov-19 91.7 94.9 103.2 96.1 1.5% 2.5% 1.9% 1.3% 37 12.5% -14 -4.2% 16.7% 95.5 0.9%
15-Nov-19 92.0 97.0 101.5 97.6 0.4% 2.1% -1.6% 1.6% 31 10.8% -20 -5.0% 15.8% 96.3 0.9%
22-Nov-19 90.0 92.0 98.7 95.9 -2.2% -5.1% -2.8% -1.8% 7 5.7% -44 -17.7% 23.4% 96.0 -0.3%
29-Nov-19 90.9 93.7 96.7 100.1 1.0% 1.8% -2.0% 4.4% 37 5.0% -14 -15.0% 20.0% 96.9 1.0%
06-Dec-19 92.6 94.7 95.5 95.5 1.8% 1.1% -1.2% -4.6% 33 8.2% -19 -4.8% 13.0% 97.1 0.2%
13-Dec-19 96.7 98.0 100.0 96.9 4.5% 3.5% 4.7% 1.5% 48 10.7% -3 -1.4% 12.1% 97.8 0.7%
20-Dec-19 99.2 99.9 100.1 99.6 2.6% 1.9% 0.1% 2.7% 39 12.5% -13 -8.4% 20.9% 99.4 1.7%
27-Dec-19 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.8% 0.1% -0.1% 0.4% 29 5.9% -23 2.7% 8.6% 100.0 0.6%
03-Jan-20 100.3 100.2 98.9 100.5 0.3% 0.2% -1.1% 0.5% 23 9.5% -24 -3.4% 12.9% 99.8 -0.2%
10-Jan-20 101.5 100.9 99.2 104.7 1.2% 0.7% 0.2% 4.2% 32 7.2% -22 -4.8% 12.0% 100.8 0.9%
17-Jan-20 104.7 104.8 101.0 106.4 3.2% 3.9% 1.8% 1.7% 45 19.1% -10 -3.8% 22.9% 102.8 2.0%
24-Jan-20 106.1 105.1 100.5 107.8 1.3% 0.3% -0.5% 1.3% 29 14.9% -25 -10.8% 25.7% 101.7 -1.0%
31-Jan-20 98.4 98.4 96.0 103.8 -7.3% -6.3% -4.5% -3.8% 3 2.2% -51 -17.7% 19.9% 99.5 -2.1%
07-Feb-20 102.5 101.3 100.4 107.2 4.2% 2.9% 4.6% 3.3% 45 21.4% -10 -11.7% 33.1% 102.7 3.2%
14-Feb-20 106.5 106.6 101.0 114.2 3.9% 5.3% 0.6% 6.5% 47 27.5% -8 -10.0% 37.5% 104.3 1.6%
21-Feb-20 103.7 99.3 98.1 106.4 -2.6% -6.9% -2.8% -6.9% 6 4.5% -49 -17.1% 21.6% 103.0 -1.3%
28-Feb-20 93.1 90.4 85.5 96.2 -10.2% -8.9% -12.9% -9.5% 0 -0.8% -55 -21.3% 20.5% 91.2 -11.5%
06-Mar-20 91.8 91.0 84.8 95.1 -1.5% 0.6% -0.7% -1.2% 18 7.9% -35 -11.0% 18.9% 91.7 0.6%
13-Mar-20 81.1 78.3 71.0 90.7 -11.6% -13.9% -16.3% -4.6% 0 -2.1% -55 -26.6% 24.5% 83.7 -8.8%
20-Mar-20 69.6 65.2 67.0 78.4 -14.2% -16.7% -5.7% -13.6% 3 15.3% -52 -28.9% 44.2% 71.1 -15.0%
The Prior
Week's
Close
S&P500
MaxGrowth
Companies
Up
Companies
Down
Rangeof
Growth
MinGrowth
S&P500
Growth
VLSI’s Indices of Chip Industry Stocks Weekly Growth

SemiWEEK: Coronavirus Watch. 450mm: Why it failed. Has Moore’s Law slowed?; 2019 Top Semi Equipment Suppliers; Stocks plummet

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