This document discusses the theory of change approach to understanding complex situations and interventions. It provides three key aspects of a theory of change: 1) articulating underlying assumptions about change, 2) developing logic models of intervention, and 3) navigating complexity. A theory of change can bring greater rigor to program design, lead to more appropriate strategies based on context, and make decision-making more coherent and transparent. It is important to surface assumptions, recognize uncertainties, and understand how relationships and external factors can impact change. Developing a "so that" chain for one's own intervention can help apply the theory of change.

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MeTA Multi Stakeholder Processes
Workshop for MeTA pilot Countries
Ghana, Jordan, Kyrgyzstan, Peru, Philippines, Uganda, Zambia
8 Theory of Change
Simone van Vugt/ Karen Verhoosel
Wageningen UR Centre for Development Innovation
January 2010
Basic ‘Planning’ Framework
General Concern
‘Messy Situation’ Focus
Understanding the
Situation
Creating a Shared
Vision/Ambition
Agreeing on strategy
and Actions
Understanding Learning and
Adapting
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The basic issue
Trying to intervene in complex situations, in a
sophisticated (successful) way when there is:
little time
few resources
weak analytical capacities
many competing demands
and
a largely linear and inflexible aid system
Articulating a Theory of Change can:
Bring greater rigour to programme design
Lead to more appropriate choice in approach
based on context and objectives
Open up broader range of options for change
strategies
Bring power back into discussions
Help resolve conflicts about choice in strategies
based on unarticulated assumptions
Better informed, coherent and more transparent decision
making
‘There is nothing more practical than a good theory.’ (Lewin 1952)
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What change really means for a sugar cane farmer
green – local
pink - national
blue – international
Source: Ashish
Shah, Kenya
the farmer
Three Key Aspects of theory of Change
Articulating and making explicit underlying
assumptions (theories) about change
Developing logic models of intervention
Navigating complexity
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We all have theories (assumptions) about…
How history (change) happens
Human nature and social interaction
Specific cause and effect relations
Trends and drivers in the external environment
Politics and power
The beliefs and motivations of others
Pathway of Change
Goal
Long term Intervention
Outcome Indicators
Indicators
Assumptions
Assumptions
Preconditions Assumptions Preconditions
Preconditions Indicators Assumptions
Assumptions
Indicators Indicators
Assumptions
Assumptions
Preconditions Preconditions
Intervention
Intervention
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Control or Emergence?
Where do things go wrong?
Limited or incorrect causal understanding
Misjudging the motivations, incentives or capacities
for people to act or change in particular ways
Insufficient time or resources to achieve objectives
Too limited influence over causal factors
Breakdowns in human/organisational relations
External factors that change causal relations and
motivations
Lack of adaptive capacity to respond to change
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So! How can ToC help
Clarity over causal relations and mechanisms of
change
Recognition of unknowns and uncertainties
Surfacing different assumptions and beliefs that may
cause conflict or upset relationships
Exercise
Develop your own MeTA ToC : “So that” chain.
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Thank you!
© Wageningen UR
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