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AAPOR 2013 Langer Research: Election
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AAPOR 2013 Langer Research: Election

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  • Logos, layout
  • note these are annual averages.peak monthly value was 17.4% in Oct. 2009
  • again, annual averages.
  • No update available, right? right.
  • Thought you might want to add in this one somewhere too. The air of inevitability.Also could note that a fifth (20%) of Republicans thought Obama was going to win, as did nearly three in 10 conservatives (28%). – this from the last data point in the chart.
  • Cut or move up?
  • Added 10/16/12 JP.
  • First debate: Oct 3. Second debate: Oct 16. Third debate: Oct 22.

AAPOR 2013 Langer Research: Election AAPOR 2013 Langer Research: Election Presentation Transcript

  • The 2012 Election:A Different Kind of CountryGary Langer, Julie Phelan, Greg Holyk & Damla ErgunLanger Research Associates@LangerResearch
  • Backstory 1: Partisanship
  • Democrats Republicans Independents
  • The economyBackstory 2:
  • Unemployment RateAug. 2008 - presentBureau of Labor Statistics10.06.17.9
  • U6 RatePercent unemployed or marginally attachedBureau of Labor Statistics
  • Long-term UnemploymentAverage number unemployed for 27 weeks or more, in thousandsBureau of Labor Statistics
  • Real median weekly earnings1979-2009Bureau of Labor StatisticsNo college degreeBachelor’s degree and higher71.5% of the U.S.Population
  • The peeve it produces
  • 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Dissatisfied Angry NET NegativeFeelings Toward GovernmentABC News/Washington Post polls
  • -55-45-35-25-15-55152535452010200820062004200220001998199619941992199019881986CCI yearly averageRe-election rateYearly CCI and House Re-election RateCorrelation: .75
  • Backstory 3:Who comes to the party?
  • 90% 89% 88%85%87%83%81%77%74%10% 11% 12%15%13%17%19%23%26%1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008Racial Composition of the ElectorateNational exit poll dataWhite Nonwhite
  • 90%8%2%1976 ElectionWhite Black Latino74%13%9%2%2008 ElectionWhite Black Latino AsianThe Changing ElectorateNational exit poll data43%-55%47%-52%
  • 51%66%47%32%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008Dem. candidate GOP candidateVote Choice Among Young Voters (18-29)National exit poll data
  • 50% 49%50%56%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008Men WomenGender Gap: % Vote for DemocratNational exit poll dataAverage Dem gender gap: +8% pts.
  • 41%39%25%32%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008Democrat RepublicanPartisan AffiliationNational exit poll data
  • So, let’s have an election.
  • The perplex: Why not worse?• A strong base in partisan times• Personal popularity• What came before• The comparative nature of election politics
  • 49% 49%50% 51%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%If Obama is re-elected If Romney is electedConfident Not confidentConfident the Economy Will Get Back on TrackAmong registered votersABC News/Washington Post poll
  • The zeitgeist and the gaffe• Son of a former chairman of General Motors andgovernor of Michigan• Attained vast wealth as a buyout specialist• Estates, car elevator, Swiss account, 14% tax rate• And the gaffe…
  • "There are 47 percent of the people who will votefor the president no matter what. All right, thereare 47 percent who are with him, who aredependent upon government, who believe thatthey are victims, who believe the government hasa responsibility to care for them, who believe thatthey are entitled to health care, to food, tohousing, to you-name-it. ... My job is not to worryabout those people. Ill never convince them theyshould take personal responsibility and care fortheir lives."
  • 56%34%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%Unfairness in the economic system that favors the wealthyOver-regulation of the free market that interferes with growth and prosBigger Problem: Unfairness or Over-RegulationABC News/Washington Post poll
  • Romney:Additional challenges…
  • 55%47%41%47%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%Obama RomneyYes NoHonest and Trustworthy?Among likely votersABC News/Washington Post poll
  • 43%32%53%63%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Obama RomneyHas done enough Has not done enoughHas Provided Enough Policy DetailsAmong registered votersABC News/Washington Post poll
  • …and opportunities
  • 59%69%16%35%18%73%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%110%What you prefer What you think RomneyprefersWhat you think ObamaprefersSmaller government with fewer servicesLarger government with more servicesViews on Size of GovernmentAmong registered votersABC News/Washington Post poll
  • 69%84%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Plenty of jobs availableJobs are difficult to findJob Opportunities In Your AreaABC News/Washington Post, Pew, and U.S. News & World Reports pollsJobs very difficult to find:49% in July ’11; 32% in Oct. ’12
  • 72%52%26%23%45%69%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Plenty available Somewhat difficult to find Very difficult to findObama RomneyVote Preferenceby Job AvailabilityAmong likely votersABC News/Washington Post poll
  • Debates and dynamics
  • Early contact - efficiency• Aug. 25▫ Obama supporters contacted by Obama campaign:31%▫ Romney supporters contacted by Romney campaign:18%• By Nov. 5▫ Even, at just fewer than four in 10 apiece
  • Oct. 29, 2012
  • Blowin’ in the Wind?• Approval of Obama’s response: 79%• Trust Obama more to handle a major crisis▫ Oct. 13: 52%; Nov. 3: 52%• Obama, “stronger leader”▫ Oct. 13: 49%; Nov. 4: 50%• Obama job performance: “Strongly” approve▫ Oct. 30: 30%; Nov. 4: 35%
  • • Average gap closest in data since 1936• First contest since 1960 in whichneither candidate exceeded 50%
  • Nu?
  • Exit Poll Results: Issues• Favorable: Obama 53%; Romney 47%• Favors the middle class: Obama +10• Favors the rich: Romney +43• Rate economy negatively: 77%• Blame for the current economy: Bush +15 pts.▫ Their vote, 85-12%, Obama-Romney• Trust on economy: Romney +1• “In touch” with average Americans: Obama +10▫ Their vote, 91-7%• “Right direction,” 46%▫ Their vote, 93-6%, a record
  • Exit Poll Issues II• Among voters focused on three of four candidatequalities – vision, shared values, strong leader –Romney wins by 9 to 23 pts.• Among voters focused on the fourth – “caresabout people like me” – Obama wins by 63 pts.
  • Exit Poll Results - Demographics• Whites: 72% of the electorate, a new low▫ Romney +20 pts.• Blacks 13%, as ’08. Hispanics 10%, 1st double-digit▫ Obama +87 pts. among blacks▫ Obama +44 pts. among Hispanics• Democrats +6 pts. vs. Republicans▫ 92% of Dems for Obama, record▫ 93% of Reps for Romney, ties record▫ Independents +5 for Romney; no swing
  • Exit Poll Demos II• Obama +10 pts. among women vs. men▫ Married men, Romney +22 pts.▫ Unmarried women, Obama +36 pts.• 25% liberals, new high• 35% conservatives, 1 pt. from their high (’84)• 40% moderates – a new low• Under 30’s, Obama +23 pts. (vs. +34 in ’08)• Seniors, Romney +12 pts., new high for a Rep.
  • Conclusions• Popular vote vs. electoral college? Two words: Groundgame.• In terms of the economy, Romney wanted this electionto be held a year earlier – and ran like it was.• Romney apparently thought he could win by not beingObama. Obama ended up winning by not being Romney.• The Republican Party ran out of white voters – afundamental challenge for its long-term prospects.• The middle ground in American politics is increasinglyhard to find.
  • Thank you!Gary LangerLanger Research Associatesglanger@langerresearch.com