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BENGALURU
RESIDENTIAL
JANUARY TO JUNE 2015
RESIDENTIAL
MARKET UNDER
STRESS FOR THE
FIRST TIME
Will a resilient Bengaluru join the bandwagon of NCR and Mumbai?
Is this a one-off phenomenon or a trend to watch for?
NEW LAUNCHES DROP BY 40% Y-O-Y;
DEVELOPERS RESTRICT NEW LAUNCHES
42,155
36,145
35,545
32,589
21,400
31,844
25,522
27,256
28,445
22,234
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015
No.ofunits
Launches Sales
PRICE SEES A SLOW GROWTH
4,020
4,296 4,473
4,585 4,650
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015
INR/sq.ft.
NORTH BENGALURU
EXUDES OPTIMISM
NORTH INCREASING ITS SHARE IN
LAUNCHES AND SALES Y-O-Y
23% 22%
26%
23%
20%
37%
19%
29%
45%
32%
48%
40%
12%
9%
7% 8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
H1 2014 H1 2015 H1 2014 H1 2015
LAUNCHES SALES
Central East North South West8,221
7,029
16,107
4,162
4,759
6,812
1,947
7,882
26
63
6,961
5,247
13,050
1936
74
5,034
6,455
8,901
1,771
ELECTRONICS CITY,
KANAKAPURA ROAD
IN SOUTH MOST
AFFORDABLE
75% OF NEW LAUNCHES BELOW
INR 2.5 MN IN SOUTH
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
<`2.5 mn `2.5-5 mn `5-7.5 mn `7.5-10 mn `10-20 mn >`20 mn
Central East West North South
INR
YESHWANTHPUR,
RAJAJINAGAR IN THE
WEST RELATIVELY
BETTER LOCATIONS
DUE TO METRO
CONNECTIVITY
HOWEVER, SOUTH AND EAST
MARKETS SUFFER
6
7
8
9
10
6 7 8 9 10
AgeofInventory
QTS
CENTRAL
SOUTH
NORTH
EAST
WEST
PREMIUM MARKET
WITH APARTMENTS
MORE THAN
INR 2 CRORE
REFLECTS OVERALL CITY
TREND
LAUNCHES CONTRACT, SALES
RELATIVELY STEADY
1,296
2,036
1,081
1,314
1,058
1,289
1,201
822
846
756
7,273
7,837
8,182
8,351
8,619
6500
7000
7500
8000
8500
9000
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015
Launches Sales Wt. Avg. Price (RHS)
IT WILL TAKE AROUND
2.5 YEARS TO OFFLOAD
UNSOLD INVENTORY IN
PREMIUM MARKETS;
CITY TO TAKE 2 YEARS
SLOWER SALES IN PREMIUM MARKETS
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15
No.ofquarters
PREMIUM MARKETS
CITY
NEW LAUNCHES TO
IMPROVE IN THE NEXT 6
MONTHS DUE TO ENHANCED
BUSINESS SENTIMENT AND
INCREASED OFFICE
ABSORPTION BY E-COMMERCE
AND IT/ITeS
OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 6 MONTHS
LAUNCHES
(UNITS)
SALES
(UNITS)
WEIGHTED
AVERAGE PRICE
(INR/SQ FT)
H2 2014 32,590 28,445 4,585
H1 2015 21,400 22,230 4,650
H2 2015 E 29,700 27,900 4,751
HOW DOES BENGALURU
STAND WHEN
COMPARED TO OTHER
CITIES
LAUNCHES- BENGALURU HAS THE
HIGHEST AMONG 8 CITIES
H1 2015
BENGALURU 21,400
MUMBAI 18,887
PUNE 12,762
NCR 11,360
CHENNAI 9,102
KOLKATA 8,372
AHMEDABAD 8,062
HYDERABAD 5,457
H1 2014 H2 2014
MUMBAI 35,512 26,833
NCR 35,500 37,643
BENGALURU 35,545 32,589
PUNE 16,883 16,700
CHENNAI 11,377 7,318
HYDERABAD 7,899 5,151
KOLKATA 8,444 11,891
AHMEDABAD 9,021 4,991
SALES - BENGALURU SURPASSES
H1 2015
MUMBAI 28,446
BENGALURU 22,234
PUNE 15,524
NCR 14,250
CHENNAI 9,091
AHMEDABAD 7,751
HYDERABAD 7,123
KOLKATA 5,883
NCR AND EMERGES AS THE 2ND LARGEST
H1 2014 H2 2014
MUMBAI 31,210 36,505
NCR 28,500 12,075
BENGALURU 27,256 28,445
PUNE 14,719 20,150
CHENNAI 10,315 10,643
AHMEDABAD 10,472 8,019
HYDERABAD 7,282 7,829
KOLKATA 6,390 6,245
BENGALURU REMAINS ONE OF THE
BEST PERFORMING MARKETS IN INDIA
5
7
9
11
13
15
5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19
Ageofunsoldinventoryinquarters
QTS
MUMBAI
PUNE
AHMEDABAD
HYDERABAD
KOLKATA
NCR
BENGALURU
CHENNAI
BENGALURU
OFFICE
JANUARY TO JUNE 2015
OFFICE MARKET
PERFORMING WELL
Will Bengaluru be able to maintain its lead in office demand?
Will the supply be able to catch up with the demand?
Will the IT/ITeS sector continue to lead the demand?
VACANCY REACHES SINGLE DIGIT AT
8%, LOWEST IN THE COUNTRY
101.0
106.5
109.5
114.0
118.0
122.5
87.0
91.9
97.9
102.3
108.3
113.3
14%
14%
11% 10%
8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Mn.Sq.ft.
Stock Occupied Stock Vacancy (RHS)
DEMAND OUTSTRIPPING SUPPLY IN 2015,
DEPLETING READY QUALITY OFFICE
SPACE A CONCERN1.70
5.50
3.00
4.50
4.00
4.50
4.65
4.89
6.01
4.40
6.07
5.00
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Mn.Sq.ft.
New Completion Absorption
SHARE OF IT/ITeS
DIPS, EMERGENCE
OF E-COMMERCE
OTHER SERVICES SECTOR INCREASES
SHARE; AMAZON, FLIPKART PICKS PRE-
COMMITTED SPACE
54%
6%
15%
24%
53%
13%
4%
29%
50%
3%
11%
36%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
IT/ITeS BFSI Manufacturing Other Service Sectors
H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015
3.25
2.35
3.04
0.40
0.58
0.18
0.92
0.18
0.67
1.44 1.29 2.19
ALL NUMBERS IN MN SQ FT
OUTER RING ROAD
CONSOLIDATES ITS
POSITION AS THE
LARGEST OFFICE HUB
SARJAPUR ROAD IN ORR MAJOR
CONTRIBUTOR TO THE ABSORPTION
4%
9%
71%
13%
3%2%
16%
69%
8%
5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
CBD & Off CBD SBD ORR PBD East PBD South
H1 2014 H1 20150.21
0.09
0.55
0.97
4.29
4.19
0.76
0.49
0.19
0.33
ALL NUMBERS IN MN SQ FT
DEMAND CONTINUES
TO OUTSTRIP SUPPLY
IN THE COMING 6
MONTHS, VACANCY TO
REMAIN STEADY
OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 6 MONTHS
NEW
COMPLETIONS
(MN SQ FT)
ABSORPTION
(MN SQ FT)
VACANCY
WEIGHTED
AVERAGE
RENT
(INR/SQ FT/MONTH)
H2 2014 4.5 4.4 10% 48.5
H2 2015E 4.5 5.0 8% 51.5
GROWTH 0% 14% 6%
UNTAPPED POTENTIAL IN
THANISANDRA,
NAGAWARA
NORTHERN CORRIDOR TO SEE DEMAND
OWING TO RESIDENTIAL TRACTION,
IMPROVED INFRASTRUCTURE, LOWER
RENTALS AND GOOD CONNECTIVITY TO CBD
HOW DOES BENGALURU
STAND WHEN COMPARED
TO OTHER CITIES
SCARCITY IN QUALITY OFFICE SPACE –
HIGHEST IN BENGALURU
22%
21%
8%
15%
18%
16%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Mumbai NCR Bengaluru Pune Chennai Hyderabad
mnsqft
New completions Absorption Vacancy (RHS)
H1 2015
AVERAGE DEAL SIZE LARGEST
IN BENGALURU
21,430
25,622
71,577
21,434
24,520
24,702
23,291
21,872
54,253
40,773
34,507
18,585
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
Mumbai NCR Bengaluru Pune Chennai Hyderabad
sqft
H1 2014 H1 2015
KEY TAKEAWAYS
RESIDENTIAL
BENGALURU
ONE OF THE MOST RESILIENT MARKETS OF INDIA UNDER STRESS FOR THE
FIRST TIME
OFFICE
BENGALURU
THE COUNTRY’S LARGEST OFFICE MARKET REELS UNDER SCARCITY OF
GOOD QUALITY OFFICE SPACE
Q&A

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Bengaluru Real Estate Outlook Report H1 2015

  • 2. RESIDENTIAL MARKET UNDER STRESS FOR THE FIRST TIME Will a resilient Bengaluru join the bandwagon of NCR and Mumbai? Is this a one-off phenomenon or a trend to watch for?
  • 3. NEW LAUNCHES DROP BY 40% Y-O-Y; DEVELOPERS RESTRICT NEW LAUNCHES 42,155 36,145 35,545 32,589 21,400 31,844 25,522 27,256 28,445 22,234 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015 No.ofunits Launches Sales
  • 4. PRICE SEES A SLOW GROWTH 4,020 4,296 4,473 4,585 4,650 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015 INR/sq.ft.
  • 6. NORTH INCREASING ITS SHARE IN LAUNCHES AND SALES Y-O-Y 23% 22% 26% 23% 20% 37% 19% 29% 45% 32% 48% 40% 12% 9% 7% 8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% H1 2014 H1 2015 H1 2014 H1 2015 LAUNCHES SALES Central East North South West8,221 7,029 16,107 4,162 4,759 6,812 1,947 7,882 26 63 6,961 5,247 13,050 1936 74 5,034 6,455 8,901 1,771
  • 7. ELECTRONICS CITY, KANAKAPURA ROAD IN SOUTH MOST AFFORDABLE
  • 8. 75% OF NEW LAUNCHES BELOW INR 2.5 MN IN SOUTH 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% <`2.5 mn `2.5-5 mn `5-7.5 mn `7.5-10 mn `10-20 mn >`20 mn Central East West North South INR
  • 9. YESHWANTHPUR, RAJAJINAGAR IN THE WEST RELATIVELY BETTER LOCATIONS DUE TO METRO CONNECTIVITY
  • 10. HOWEVER, SOUTH AND EAST MARKETS SUFFER 6 7 8 9 10 6 7 8 9 10 AgeofInventory QTS CENTRAL SOUTH NORTH EAST WEST
  • 11. PREMIUM MARKET WITH APARTMENTS MORE THAN INR 2 CRORE REFLECTS OVERALL CITY TREND
  • 12. LAUNCHES CONTRACT, SALES RELATIVELY STEADY 1,296 2,036 1,081 1,314 1,058 1,289 1,201 822 846 756 7,273 7,837 8,182 8,351 8,619 6500 7000 7500 8000 8500 9000 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015 Launches Sales Wt. Avg. Price (RHS)
  • 13. IT WILL TAKE AROUND 2.5 YEARS TO OFFLOAD UNSOLD INVENTORY IN PREMIUM MARKETS; CITY TO TAKE 2 YEARS
  • 14. SLOWER SALES IN PREMIUM MARKETS 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 No.ofquarters PREMIUM MARKETS CITY
  • 15. NEW LAUNCHES TO IMPROVE IN THE NEXT 6 MONTHS DUE TO ENHANCED BUSINESS SENTIMENT AND INCREASED OFFICE ABSORPTION BY E-COMMERCE AND IT/ITeS
  • 16. OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 6 MONTHS LAUNCHES (UNITS) SALES (UNITS) WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE (INR/SQ FT) H2 2014 32,590 28,445 4,585 H1 2015 21,400 22,230 4,650 H2 2015 E 29,700 27,900 4,751
  • 17. HOW DOES BENGALURU STAND WHEN COMPARED TO OTHER CITIES
  • 18. LAUNCHES- BENGALURU HAS THE HIGHEST AMONG 8 CITIES H1 2015 BENGALURU 21,400 MUMBAI 18,887 PUNE 12,762 NCR 11,360 CHENNAI 9,102 KOLKATA 8,372 AHMEDABAD 8,062 HYDERABAD 5,457 H1 2014 H2 2014 MUMBAI 35,512 26,833 NCR 35,500 37,643 BENGALURU 35,545 32,589 PUNE 16,883 16,700 CHENNAI 11,377 7,318 HYDERABAD 7,899 5,151 KOLKATA 8,444 11,891 AHMEDABAD 9,021 4,991
  • 19. SALES - BENGALURU SURPASSES H1 2015 MUMBAI 28,446 BENGALURU 22,234 PUNE 15,524 NCR 14,250 CHENNAI 9,091 AHMEDABAD 7,751 HYDERABAD 7,123 KOLKATA 5,883 NCR AND EMERGES AS THE 2ND LARGEST H1 2014 H2 2014 MUMBAI 31,210 36,505 NCR 28,500 12,075 BENGALURU 27,256 28,445 PUNE 14,719 20,150 CHENNAI 10,315 10,643 AHMEDABAD 10,472 8,019 HYDERABAD 7,282 7,829 KOLKATA 6,390 6,245
  • 20. BENGALURU REMAINS ONE OF THE BEST PERFORMING MARKETS IN INDIA 5 7 9 11 13 15 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 Ageofunsoldinventoryinquarters QTS MUMBAI PUNE AHMEDABAD HYDERABAD KOLKATA NCR BENGALURU CHENNAI
  • 22. OFFICE MARKET PERFORMING WELL Will Bengaluru be able to maintain its lead in office demand? Will the supply be able to catch up with the demand? Will the IT/ITeS sector continue to lead the demand?
  • 23. VACANCY REACHES SINGLE DIGIT AT 8%, LOWEST IN THE COUNTRY 101.0 106.5 109.5 114.0 118.0 122.5 87.0 91.9 97.9 102.3 108.3 113.3 14% 14% 11% 10% 8% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Mn.Sq.ft. Stock Occupied Stock Vacancy (RHS)
  • 24. DEMAND OUTSTRIPPING SUPPLY IN 2015, DEPLETING READY QUALITY OFFICE SPACE A CONCERN1.70 5.50 3.00 4.50 4.00 4.50 4.65 4.89 6.01 4.40 6.07 5.00 - 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 Mn.Sq.ft. New Completion Absorption
  • 25. SHARE OF IT/ITeS DIPS, EMERGENCE OF E-COMMERCE
  • 26. OTHER SERVICES SECTOR INCREASES SHARE; AMAZON, FLIPKART PICKS PRE- COMMITTED SPACE 54% 6% 15% 24% 53% 13% 4% 29% 50% 3% 11% 36% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% IT/ITeS BFSI Manufacturing Other Service Sectors H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015 3.25 2.35 3.04 0.40 0.58 0.18 0.92 0.18 0.67 1.44 1.29 2.19 ALL NUMBERS IN MN SQ FT
  • 27. OUTER RING ROAD CONSOLIDATES ITS POSITION AS THE LARGEST OFFICE HUB
  • 28. SARJAPUR ROAD IN ORR MAJOR CONTRIBUTOR TO THE ABSORPTION 4% 9% 71% 13% 3%2% 16% 69% 8% 5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% CBD & Off CBD SBD ORR PBD East PBD South H1 2014 H1 20150.21 0.09 0.55 0.97 4.29 4.19 0.76 0.49 0.19 0.33 ALL NUMBERS IN MN SQ FT
  • 29. DEMAND CONTINUES TO OUTSTRIP SUPPLY IN THE COMING 6 MONTHS, VACANCY TO REMAIN STEADY
  • 30. OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 6 MONTHS NEW COMPLETIONS (MN SQ FT) ABSORPTION (MN SQ FT) VACANCY WEIGHTED AVERAGE RENT (INR/SQ FT/MONTH) H2 2014 4.5 4.4 10% 48.5 H2 2015E 4.5 5.0 8% 51.5 GROWTH 0% 14% 6%
  • 31. UNTAPPED POTENTIAL IN THANISANDRA, NAGAWARA NORTHERN CORRIDOR TO SEE DEMAND OWING TO RESIDENTIAL TRACTION, IMPROVED INFRASTRUCTURE, LOWER RENTALS AND GOOD CONNECTIVITY TO CBD
  • 32. HOW DOES BENGALURU STAND WHEN COMPARED TO OTHER CITIES
  • 33. SCARCITY IN QUALITY OFFICE SPACE – HIGHEST IN BENGALURU 22% 21% 8% 15% 18% 16% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Mumbai NCR Bengaluru Pune Chennai Hyderabad mnsqft New completions Absorption Vacancy (RHS) H1 2015
  • 34. AVERAGE DEAL SIZE LARGEST IN BENGALURU 21,430 25,622 71,577 21,434 24,520 24,702 23,291 21,872 54,253 40,773 34,507 18,585 - 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 Mumbai NCR Bengaluru Pune Chennai Hyderabad sqft H1 2014 H1 2015
  • 35. KEY TAKEAWAYS RESIDENTIAL BENGALURU ONE OF THE MOST RESILIENT MARKETS OF INDIA UNDER STRESS FOR THE FIRST TIME OFFICE BENGALURU THE COUNTRY’S LARGEST OFFICE MARKET REELS UNDER SCARCITY OF GOOD QUALITY OFFICE SPACE
  • 36. Q&A

Editor's Notes

  1. ARROW
  2. ARROW
  3. Infra / connectivity in west developed (abanti / sangeeta to brief satish)
  4. Reasons as talking point
  5. Weighted average price talking point
  6. Forecasting a re-bound / last 6 months an aberration and we will come back with a growth story
  7. Despite the drop, it’s still the highest no of launches
  8. SIZE DOUBLE ….