From the Kitsap Regional Coordinating Council website.

1. Kitsap Regional
Alternative Futures Project
May 5, 2011
KRCC
Planning Directors

2. The Setting
In the past 50 years, Kitsap County grew
from 84,000 to 251,000 people.
1960: 1 person/3 acres
Today: 1 person/1 acre
In the next 50 years we are expected to
grow to 450,000.
2060: 1 person/0.56 ac

3. Question
How can Kitsap County accommodate
growth while maintaining the viability of
the economy and the environment?

4. Today’s Discussion
Describe Alternative Futures
Describe Envision software
Envision Skagit
Envision Kitsap

5. Alternative Futures
10/16/09 5

6. Alternative Futures
A planning method which compares long-
term effects of planning policies
Decision support tool
Scenarios: set of policies characterized by a
particular value
Indicators
Examples
Willamette
Chico Watershed
Silverdale/Barker

7. Alternative Futures
DCD received EPA grant
2010-2012
Local Partners
ILAs with Bainbridge Island, Bremerton
Varying involvement: Other cities, tribes
Contractors
OSU: Create Envision Kitsap model
Battelle: Integrate Envision model with
nearshore assessment

8. Kitsap Alternative Futures Project
Purpose as stated in EPA contract
Accommodate growth while improving priority
habitat of Kitsap’s shoreline and uplands
What DCD aims to get from the project
A modeling tool to examine impacts of land
use decisions (e.g., UGA expansions/
contractions, zoning)
Growth in Kitsap that is economically and
environmentally viable

9. Kitsap Alternative Futures Project
Get Create Test
Use model
organized model model
(2012)
(2010) (2011) (2011)
Step 1: Get organized (2010)
Step 2: Create Kitsap’s model (2011)
Step 3: Test model (2011/12)
Step 4: Use model (2012)

10. Envision Software Package
10

11. Envision software package
Purpose: facilitate alternative futures
analysis
Helps users
Develop and play out alternative land use
scenarios
Visualize resulting growth via time series maps
Communicate ecological, economic and social
changes (maps, graphs, tables)
11

12. Envision software package
Organizes three-way interactions of actors, the
landscape and policies.
ies
Ac
lic
tor
Po
s
Landscapes 12

13. Envision software package
Actors
Have decision making authority over parcels of
land
Are characterized by the values they express
through their behaviors, which alter land use
Landscape
Summation of parcels
Changes as individual decisions are made
Policies (aka Development Rules)
Guide and constrain decisions
13

14. Envision– General Structure
Actors: Decision Landscape Feedback
makers making Landscape
landscape change Evaluative Change
by selecting policies Models: Generate
responsive to their landscape metrics
objectives Actions reflecting scarcity
Landscape:
Spatial
Policy Container in
Selection which land use
changes are
depicted
Policies: Fundamental
Descriptors of Autonomous Change
constraints and actions Processes: Models of
defining land use nonhuman change
management decision
making

15. Envision Policies
Envision’s
Policy Wizard
help users
create the
policies that
constrain
actors.
Spatially
explicit
Temporally
explicit
Scenario-
specific
15

16. Envision Scenarios
Envision’s
Scenario
Wizard
helps users
bundle
policies
into
coherent
scenarios
16

17. Envision Landscape
Landscape comprised of Individual
Decision Units (IDUs)
Single actor
Basic unit to analyze landscape change
Essentially parcels
Every rule is applied to every IDU for
every year
17

18. Envision Landscape Evaluators
Maps and
Graphs that
reflect
scenario’s
performance
with respect
to indicators
Year by year
All scenarios
18

19. Envision Indicators
Should measure/report
Things that are important
Things that decision makers care about and
will inform/influence decisions
Examples
Urban/rural split
Population by City/UGA, etc.
Acres of commercial, residential land
Acres of habitat available for key species
19

20. Initial Outputs
ENVISION SKAGIT

21. Envision Skagit 2060
One year ahead
of Kitsap’s effort
Similarities
EPA-grant funded
Indicators
Scenarios
Initial Envision
results released
in December

22. Zoning

23. Zoning

24. Floodplain

25. Existing UGAs (2010)

26. 2060 UGAs – Plan Trend Scenario

27. 2060 UGAs – Ecosystem Scenario

28. 2060 UGAs – Development Scenario

29. New Dwelling Units – Ecosystem 2060

30. New Dwelling Units – Development 2060

38. Current Status, Next Steps
ENVISION KITSAP

39. Envision Kitsap: IDUs
Developing
Individual Decision
Units
140,000 Parcel IDUs
36K have “Constrained
Development Portion”
1,800 Road IDUs
900 Shoreline IDUs
16 Lake IDUs

40. Envision Kitsap: Priority Areas
Types of “Priority Areas”
Conservation
Development
Tells Envision places more/less suited for
Development and Conservation
Envision will track population changes within
Priority Areas
Envision will nudge people towards
Development Priority Areas

41. Draft
Priority Areas
Conservation
Critical Areas
Habitat quality
Water flow
Land cover
Development
Infrastructure
Services
Jurisdictions
Draft

42. Envision Kitsap: Population
Population growth
1.13% 2010 to 2030 (PSRC)
1.2% 2030 to 2060 (OFM & PSRC)
Population growth is the primary driver
of land use change
Envision allocates
“Plan Trend” will use CPPs’ allocation for
2010-2030
Total population same for each scenario

43. Next Steps: Scenarios
Scenario = Set of development rules
Plan Trend
Development
Ecosystem
Resource Harvest
Types of development rules
Urban/rural split
Zoning density
Building in constrained areas, resource lands
Lot aggregation
UGA contraction

44. Next Steps: Scenarios
First “Plan Trend” then other “bookends”
Sufficiently different to show policy impacts
Robust is helpful; timid is not
Roles
DCD staff: Propose set of development rules
Board: Review
City/tribal planners: Review/comment
OSU: Translate the development rules into
Envision code
When: Spring

45. Kitsap Alternative Futures Project
QUESTIONS ?