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Unlocking agriculture’s past to feed the future world Jacob van Etten
1 Feedingthefutureworld
IPCC, 2007
% change -95 to -31 -30 to -11 -10 to -1 0 1 to 29 30 to 47 48 to 98 Change in suitabilityduetoclimatechange 50 crops, to 2050 Andrew Jarvis, CIAT/CCAFS
D. Lobell et al. 2011
2 Thepastisthekeytothefuture
China, 6000 years before present
?
?
?
Geneticchange earlyfarmersselect
3 Thescience of agriculturalorigins
Nikolai I. Vavilov (1887-1943) Centres of origin
Flotation
Rice spikelet bases Which is the domesticated one?
14C radiocarbon dating accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS)
Phytoliths scanning electron microscope (SEM)
Experimental archaeology
Bones Was agriculture such a good idea after all?
DNA analysis “Old” DNA recovery
Current patterns of genetic diversity
4 Heritage of thepast: agriculturaldiversity
Transfer of genes from CWR tocrops “Scuba rice” Flood-tolerance gene from landrace
Photo: J. Cherfas, Bioversity International
Photo: J. Cherfas, Bioversity International
5 Geography:  thepower of maps and models
Seed samples available from the multilateral system
Gaps in the collections example for sorghum
Archaeological data Maize origin in Mexico
Overlappingpart of thedispersalroute Divergentpart of thedispersalroute Origin of dispersal
R2 = 0.44 measuredgeneticdistance predictedgeneticdistance
Interactive online mapping +
www.ie.edu/mgec

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Unlocking Agriculture's Past