Integrated multi-component planning and implementation methodology guiding energy transitions at any level of government. A dynamic and comprehensive methodology with multiple tools that analyzes the economic and social impacts of alternative technological pathways in the specific context of a municipality, country, or region. It explores existing clean energy business opportunities and recommends concrete policies and measures that improve the given investment environment.

1. Sustainable Energy Roadmap &
Implementation Plan (SERIP)
Alexander Ochs
Senior Director of Climate and Energy

2. Goal
• An energy system that is socially, economically
and environmentally sustainable
Our role
• Provide the supporting research
• Help government define goals, design strategy
• Advise on implementation

3. Theory of change
• Overall strategy and individual recommendations only
successful if they get buy-in from key drivers of change
– Decision-makers in policy, business (entrepreneurs, project
developer) and finance (investors, banks, international
funders)
– Media, NGOs and civil society as important communicators
and pressure groups
• Necessitates a paradigm shift
• Requires that we demonstrate that
– the outcome is in the clear interest of the people; allow for
greater prosperity, security, integrity, happiness
– the pathway is technically, socially, economically, politically
and financially feasible

4. Sustainable Energy
Roadmap &
Implementation
PlanPolicy
Recommendations
Vision & Long-Term Goals
Concrete Policy
Mechanisms
Governance &
Administrative Efficiency
Technical
Assessment
Energy Efficiency
Potential
Renewable Energy
Potential
Grid Solutions
Finance &
Policy
Assessment
Gap Analysis
International Support &
Cooperation
Domestic Reform and
Capacity Building
Socio-
Economic
Analysis
Levelized Cost of
Energy +
Energy Scenarios
Macroeconomic
Effects

5. Financial investment barriers and enablers
Barriers
FinanceBarriers
Cost of capital
Unavailability of public financing
Unavailability of private loans
Unmanageability of small projects for development
banks and international funders
High upfront capital costs
Cost
Barriers
Higher Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE)
Unaccounted external benefits and costs
Market and currency fluctuations
Policy
Misplaced incentives
Policy and regulatory uncertainty and complication
Enablers
National renewable energy
targets
VisionRegulatory policies (Feed-in
tariff, RPS, etc.)
ConcretePolicies
Fiscal incentives (tax
incentives, subsidies, grants)
Public financing (public
investment, loans, grants)
Energy market regulations
Trade agreements
Streamlining processes
(planning, permitting)
Gov.&
Admin.
Socio-economic Assessments
Knowledge Barriers
Knowledge gap
Worldwatch provides the information that important decision-makers at
national, sub-national, and international levels often lack in terms of technical
knowledge
Deficient dissemination of information
Worldwatch disseminates gathered knowledge to stakeholders, enabling them
more effectively and efficiently develop renewable energy projects
Capacity building
Technical assessments can be used to more smartly develop the capacity
needed to implement renewable energy projects
International knowledge sharing
Results of technical assessments are available to a wide range of international
stakeholders in the public and private sectors
Technical Assessments
Socio-economic Impacts of RE
Energy
Priorities
Security
Economic
Priorities
Industry development
Jobs
Social
Development
Energy access
Health
Education
Redistribution/Equality
Environmenta
l Integrity
Climate change
Natural resources
Barriers
CostBarriers
Unaccounted external
benefits and costs
Higher Levelized Cost of
Energy (LCOE)
Political
Political challenges
Public
Accep
tance
Public opposition
Knowledge
Barriers
Knowledge gap
Capacity development
REMOVE
Barriers
Systemic Vision Energy sector and industry vision
Policy and Regulatory Misplaced incentives, policy/regulatory
uncertainty
Cost High LCOE, unaccounted costs, market and
currency fluctuations
Finance Cost of capital, unavailability of financing,
unmanageability for banks, upfront costs
Political Politicization of key issues, short-term priorities
Entrenched Interest Monopoly/vertical integration, anti-RE lobby
Infrastructure Unsuitability of infrastructure, high cost of
development, intermittency/storage
Innovation Patent protection, lack of R&D
Public Acceptance NIMBY, cost of RE to consumers
Knowledge Knowledge gap, capacity building, deficient and
uncoordinated dissemination of information
Trade Tariffs, trade disputes
Enablers
Long-term Vision
Policies (policy
toolkit)
RE support
policies
Climate
Policies
Energy
Market
Regulation
Int’l.
Cooperation
Effective
Governance and
Administration
Policy Analysis and Recommendations
Financial Analysis and Recommendations

6. Technical
Assessment
Energy Efficiency Potential
Renewable Energy Potential
Grid Solutions
Sustainable Energy
Roadmap &
Implementation
Plan

7. Grid Assessments: DR
• One of the highest rates
of distribution losses in
the world
• Electricity instability
costs the country
$1 billion every year
(3.4% GDP)
• Population resorts to
inefficient small-scale
fossil fuel-based units

8. RE Maps

9. The Need for Integrated Planning
Seasonal Variation Daily (Diurnal) Variation

10. • Great similarities & divergences among
countries
• All Caribbean countries can be powered 100%
carbon-free
• Enormous wind, solar, biomass, hydro
potentials
• Enormous potential for energy efficiency
• Need to build and/or renovate grid
Selected Highlights
Technical Assessments

11. Socio-Economic
Analysis
Levelized Cost of Energy +
Energy Scenarios
Macroeconomic Effects
Sustainable Energy
Roadmap &
Implementation
Plan

12. The Need for LCOE+
Modeling societal costs and benefits
LCOE+ Jamaica
• Energy pricing does not
reflect the true costs of
different generation options
• LCOE+ modeling adds
societal costs and benefits
on top of generation costs
to help governments make
more informed choices in
the energy sector
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
USc/kWh
Generation Pollution Climate Change

13. LCOE – No External Costs
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Oil Steam Oil
Combustion
Turbine
Oil Combined
Cycle
Diesel
Generator
Natural Gas
Combined
Cycle
Petcoke
Cogeneration
Wind Solar Hydro Bagasse
USc/kWh
Generation

14. LCOE+ with Low External Cost Assumptions
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Oil Steam Oil
Combustion
Turbine
Oil Combined
Cycle
Diesel
Generator
Natural Gas
Combined
Cycle
Petcoke
Cogeneration
Wind Solar Hydro Bagasse
USc/kWh
Generation Pollution Climate Change

15. LCOE Projection
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Oil Steam Oil
Combustion
Turbine
Oil Combined
Cycle
Diesel
Generator
Natural Gas
Combined
Cycle
Petcoke
Cogeneration
Wind Solar Hydro Bagasse
Usc/kWh
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

16. Generation Scenarios based on
Reference Case Demand Growth
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2012
2015
2020
2025
2030
2012
2015
2020
2025
2030
2012
2015
2020
2025
2030
2012
2015
2020
2025
2030
GWh
Petroleum NG
Petcoke Renewables
Business As Usual 30% Renewable Energy 50% Renewable Energy20% Renewable Energy

17. Cumulative Costs & Savings for Electricity
Generation Scenarios: 2012-2030
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Total Investment Required to
Meet Annual Demand
Total Cost of Electricity Generation Total Savings Over Business As
Usual
USD(InMillions)
Business As Usual 20% Renewable Energy
30% Renewable Energy 50% Renewable Energy

18. Job Creation Case Study:
Direct Jobs in the Solar PV Value Chain
Processing of raw
materials
Engineers
Technicians
Manufacture of cells
and modules
Engineers
Technicians
Installation and plant
construction
Project development analysis
Wholesalers
Solar PV system designers and
installers
Construction workers
Meteorologists
Operation and
maintenance
Technicians
Maintenance staff
Decommissioning
Construction workers
Materials recyclers

19. Jobs Creation Estimates per MW for Various
Energy Sources over Lifetime of Facilities
Energy technology Construction, installation, and
manufacturing jobs
Operations & maintenance
and fuel processing jobs
Total jobs
Solar PV 0.29 – 1.48 0.12 – 1.00 0.41 – 2.48
Geothermal 0.10 – 0.44 1.67 – 1.79 1.77 – 2.23
Biomass 0.11 – 0.21 1.21 – 1.53 1.32 – 1.74
Solar Thermal 0.18 – 0.41 0.22 – 1.00 0.40 – 1.41
Small Hydro 0.14 1.14 1.28
Nuclear 0.38 0.70 1.08
Wind 0.10 – 0.44 0.14 – 0.40 0.24 – 0.84
Coal 0.21 0.59 0.80
Natural Gas 0.03 0.77 0.80

20. CO2e Emissions
0
1E+09
2E+09
3E+09
4E+09
5E+09
6E+09
7E+09
8E+09
9E+09
1E+10
2012 2015 2020 2025 2030
kg
Business As Usual 20% Renewable Energy
30% Renewable Energy 50% Renewable Energy

21. • Islands pay astronomical price for fossil fuel
dependency
• Petroleum high share of electricity
produced (Jamaica 2009 : 96%)
• All imported (J: Oil import US$2.2 bn/2011,
14.9% of GDP; CARICOM: 23%)
• Sustainable energy solutions lead to major
cost savings & social benefits
Selected Highlights
Socio-economic Assessments

22. Finance & Policy
Assessment
Gap Analysis
International Support &
Cooperation
Domestic Reform and Capacity
Building
Sustainable Energy
Roadmap &
Implementation
Plan

23. Sustainable Energy Finance
• Gap analysis
– Lack of finance
– Access to finance, cost of finance etc.
• International sources and cooperation
– International climate funds; CDM
– Multi-lateral development banks
– Bilateral aid
• Domestic reform and capacity building
– Business and banking sector

24. Financial Barriers and Enablers
Barriers
FinanceBarriers
Cost of capital
Unavailability of public financing
Unavailability of private loans
Unmanageability of small projects for development
banks and international funders
High upfront capital costs
CostBarriers
Higher Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE)
Unaccounted external benefits and costs
Market and currency fluctuations
Policy
Misplaced incentives
Policy and regulatory uncertainty and complication
Enablers
National renewable energy
targets
Vision
Regulatory policies (Feed-in
tariff, RPS, etc.)
ConcretePolicies
Fiscal incentives (tax
incentives, subsidies, grants)
Public financing (public
investment, loans, grants)
Energy market regulations
Trade agreements
Streamlining processes
(planning, permitting)
Gov.&
Admin.

25. Policy
Recommendations
Vision & Long-Term Goals
Concrete Policy Mechanisms
Governance & Administrative
Efficiency
Sustainable Energy
Roadmap &
Implementation
Plan

26. Policy Recommendation
• Vision & goals: ”Long, loud & legal”
• Concrete policy mechanisms
– EE, RE, grid reliability
– Market mechanisms, regulatory policies, incentive
systems, standards, education
• Administrative efficiency & governance
– Institutional capacity & interplay; mainstreaming
– MRV; transparency; stakeholder participation
– Working bureaucracy

27. Administrative Procedure to Obtain a
RE Concession in the Dominican Republic
Application for
a provisional
concession at
CNE
CNE publishes
the concession
request in a
national
newspaper
CNE publishes
the granting of
the provisional
concession
Application to
Electricity
Supervision
Board (SIE)
CNE includes
the applicant
in the Special
Regime
Production
Facilities
Register
Granting of
provisional
concession
Application for
a permanent
concession
Environmental
Impact Study
(SEMARENA)
Resource and
production
analysis by a
company
authorized by
CNE
Grid study
CDEEE
guarantee of
PPA
Guarantee
CNE receives
the reports of
the SIE and
SEMARENA
Definitive
concession

28. • Long-term vision often exists, can be more
ambitious
• Policies & measures exist but often do not
work to their full potential; additional policies
needed
• Governance & administration need to be
strengthened; capacity-building,
mainstreaming, simplification
Selected Highlights
Policy Assessments

29. aochs@worldwatch.org
Contact: