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State of Climate Action: Assessing Progress Toward 2030 and 2050

Experts highlight findings of a new report showing that while progress on climate action has been made in key sectors like power, buildings, industry, transport, forests and agriculture, it's not nearly enough to achieve a safer, climate-resilient future.

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State of Climate Action: Assessing Progress Toward 2030 and 2050

  1. 1. STATE OF CLIMATE ACTION Assessing Progress Toward 2030 and 2050
  2. 2. AGENDA AND SPEAKERS • Introduction Dan Plechaty, ClimateWorks Foundation • Methodology Louise Jeffery, Climate Action Tracker • Findings Katie Lebling and Kelly Levin, WRI • Discussion Moderated by Rhys Gerholdt, WRI Download the report: wri.org/state-of-climate 2
  3. 3. Why did we write this report? • Pivotal moment in lead up to COP26 and 5th Anniversary of Paris Agreement • Need to understand how on/off track we are for 1.5°C temperature rise in key sectors • Inform decision makers where and how to step up climate action 3
  4. 4. KEY FINDINGS FROM THE ANALYSIS (1 OF 2) • The world is already being ravaged by the impacts of a changing climate. • Commitments and action by countries, cities, and companies, as well as levels of climate finance, still fall woefully short of the ambition necessary to meet the Paris Agreement’s goals. • This coming year, leading up to COP26, is critical to commit to transformative action to limit warming to 1.5°C. Countries will update NDCs and submit LTSs, at the same time that trillions of dollars will be mobilized for COVID-19 recovery. 4
  5. 5. Solar and wind are now cheapest new power source for two thirds of world population 5
  6. 6. 6
  7. 7. KEY FINDINGS FROM THE ANALYSIS (2 OF 2) • The report assesses progress toward 2030 and 2050 emissions- reduction targets across six key sectors -- power, buildings, industry, transport, forests and agriculture. 7
  8. 8. STATE OF CLIMATE ACTION 8 Download the paper wri.org/state-of-climate
  9. 9. WHERE ARE WE TODAY: EMISSIONS https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0797-x 9
  10. 10. NATIONAL CLIMATE ACTION Climate Watch (https://www.climatewatchdata.org/) New and Updated NDCs Long-term Strategies 10
  11. 11. SUBNATIONAL AND CORPORATE CLIMATE ACTION UNFCCC 2020, Global Climate Action Portal (with historical data shared by Secretariat staff); Hsu, A., Tan, J., Ng, Y.M. et al. 2020; Natural Capital Partners 2019; World Economic Forum 2019 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 2016 2018 2020 Cities and Regions Companies Growth in the number of actors with commitments Mixed signs of progress • 60% of EU cities are on track to achieve 2020 targets, but renewed ambition is required • Only 23% of Fortune 500 companies have made ambitious commitments • Of the 7000 companies that regularly report climate information, roughly 12% show year-on-year emissions decreases 11
  12. 12. CLIMATE FINANCE 12
  13. 13. ADAPTATION 13
  14. 14. PARIS COMPATIBLE SECTORAL BENCHMARKS - METHODOLOGY
  15. 15. What do “Paris Agreement Compatible” sectoral benchmarks mean? A level of an indicator that would be “sufficient” for national action to decarbonise sectors in line with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5˚ C temperature limit. We set our benchmarks at a level of “highest plausible ambition,” which means they: • are generally technically and economically feasible within the foreseeable future • take into consideration current circumstances in terms of existing infrastructure in individual countries • ensure that the benchmarks push boundaries on all levels and increase our chances of collectively meeting the Paris temperature limit The benchmarks are not explicitly based on equity, but do account for national circumstances and convergence of living standards. Support from developed countries will be needed to meet the benchmarks in all countries.
  16. 16. Which indicators are benchmarks available for? Electricity emissions intensity EV sales share Cement emissions intensity Buildings emissions intensity (residential) Renewable share in power generation EV stock share Steel emissions intensity Buildings emissions intensity (commercial) Coal power share in total electricity generation Emissions intensity of land-based passenger transport Share of electricity use in Industry Buildings energy intensity (residential) Zero emissions fuels for domestic transport Buildings energy intensity (commercial) Renovation rates
  17. 17. Which countries and years are benchmarks available for?
  18. 18. Our own sectoral models How are the benchmarks determined? Multiple lines of evidence are used as input and informed decisions taken on the basis of the available data from literature and our own analysis. Global least cost pathways Sectoral technology scenarios Recent trends and ambitious efforts National studies claiming PA compatibility
  19. 19. What do the ranges represent? Where the benchmark is a range, it reflects a combination of trade-offs between mitigation options and uncertainties in feasibility. • The least ambitious end of the range represents what we are confident can be achieved with known technologies and strategies. • The more ambitious end of the range may indicate: – what’s possible if known strategies and technologies turn out to be successful. – there is some flexibility in the benchmark, but it implies trade-offs with other activities.
  20. 20. FOREST AND AGRICULTURE METHODOLOGY • Forests – Aligned with 1.5C temperature rise – Synthesis of top down and bottom-up modeling – Country targets based on land availability for tree cover gain • Agriculture – Aligned with 1.5C temperature rise – Indicators 1-3 and 5 are based on analysis and modeling underlying WRI’s World Resources Report: Creating a Sustainable Food Future – Indicator 4 based on SDG 12.3 20
  21. 21. OUR ASSESSMENT OF PROGRESS NEEDED 21
  22. 22. FORESTS 22
  23. 23. DEFORESTATION Notes: Permanent deforestation includes tree cover loss from commodity-driven deforestation, urbanization, and shifting agriculture in primary tropical forests. Data include only tropical humid primary forest; tropical dry primary forest is excluded, but its area is comparatively small. Deforestation is a subset of tree cover loss, and tropical primary forest loss is a subset of deforestation. Source: GFW (2020). Wildfire Global tree cover loss by driver, 2001-2019 23
  24. 24. AGRICULTURE 24
  25. 25. EMISSIONS FROM AGRICULTURE 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 1961 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2017 2030 2050 MilliontonnesCO2e/year -22% -39% Sources: Historical emissions from FAOSTAT (2020), adjusted upward as in Searchinger et al. (2019) using a GWP value of 34 for methane and including a higher amount of energy use in agriculture; GlobAgri-WRR model in Searchinger et al. (2019) for 2030 and 2050 targets. 25
  26. 26. CROP YIELDS: REGIONAL VARIATION Sources: Searchinger et al. (2019) for future targets; FAOSTAT (2020) for 2012-17 historical data. Photo: Neil Palmer (CIAT). On track for 2030/50 crop yield targets • Asia, Northern America, China, Former Soviet Union, Latin America, MENA, EU, other OECD, World Need 12x acceleration • Sub-Saharan Africa, India 26
  27. 27. RUMINANT MEAT CONSUMPTION Sources: Searchinger et al. (2019) for future targets; FAOSTAT (2020) for 2012-17 historical data.27
  28. 28. POWER SECTOR
  29. 29. SHARE OF RENEWABLES GENERATION 2000–19 Note: Y axis ranges from 17 percent and 27 percent to clearly show acceleration of growth. Source: Calculated based on IEA (2020g)
  30. 30. DECLINING PRICES Sources: Lazard (2020); BNEF (2020b)
  31. 31. SHARE OF UNABATED COAL IN ELECTRICITY GENERATION Sources: CAT (2020a, 2020b); calculated based on IEA (2019a)
  32. 32. BUILDINGS CAT 2020 32
  33. 33. TRENDS AND REQUIRED DECLINE IN THE CARBON INTENSITY OF BUILDINGS Source: CAT 2020 33
  34. 34. TRENDS AND REQUIRED DECLINE IN ENERGY INTENSITY OF BUILDINGS Source: CAT 2020 34
  35. 35. INDUSTRY 35
  36. 36. CARBON INTENSITY OF CEMENT PRODUCTION 36
  37. 37. CARBON INTENSITY OF STEEL PRODUCTION 37
  38. 38. TRANSPORT 38
  39. 39. GLOBAL ELECTRIC CAR STOCK, 2010-2019 39
  40. 40. TARGET SHARES OF ZERO CARBON FUELS IN TRANSPORTATION CAT 2020 40
  41. 41. STATE OF CLIMATE ACTION 41 Download the paper wri.org/state-of-climate
  42. 42. 42
  43. 43. Climate Finance Readiness 43
  44. 44. TRANSFORMATION CAN TAKE ON AN “S CURVE” Adapted from ICAT 2020 44
  45. 45. THE RACE IS ON 45
  46. 46. QUESTION AND ANSWERS Download the paper wri.org/state-of-climate Watch recording of this event www.wri.org/events/2020/11/state-climate-action- assessing-progress-toward-2030-2050 CAT methodology climateactiontracker.org/publications/paris-agreement- benchmarks/ Contact Us Dan Plechaty dan.plechaty@climateworks.org Louise Jeffery l.jeffery@newclimate.org Katie Lebling klebling@wri.org Kelly Levin klevin@wri.org Rhys Gerholdt rgerholdt@wri.org 46

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