Escalating production costs and risks, uncertain premiums, growing workload pressures and attractive feed prices are all serving to undermine the confidence of even the most historically committed of UK milling wheat growers. To such an extent that a fresh industry-wide approach to quality wheat will be essential if sufficient domestic production is to be maintained.

1. Digital Re-print - July | August 2012
A fresh perspective on UK milling wheat
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2. FEATURE
A fresh perspective
on UK milling wheat
by David Neale, Business Development Manager, Agrii, United Kingdom
E
scalating production costs and Overall, quality is likely to be far closer At a very modest £155/tonne, for
risks, uncertain premiums, growing to the 10-year average than last year. And instance, a 10t/ha 2011/12 Group 4 wheat is
workload pressures and attractive it might even be nearer to 2007 and 2008, set to deliver a gross margin of £894/ha. This
feed prices are all serving to undermine when just 11 percent and six percent respec- compares with £723/ha for a 9t/ha Group
the confidence of even the most histori- tively of Group 1 wheat samples made the 1 at the same price. Assuming it is paid on
cally committed of UK milling wheat full specification (Figure 2). So domestic sup- the entire tonnage, this means a premium of
growers. To such an extent that a fresh plies are set to be tight. £20/t is required for margin parity.
industry-wide approach to quality wheat The current season’s difficulties and con- However, if only 30 percent of samples
will be essential if sufficient domestic cerns are also making farmers less inclined to make the full specification – in line with the
production is to be maintained. grow milling wheat; especially so in the face 10-year average – our calculations suggest
of increasingly attractive world feed wheat this premium will compensate for less than
Annual HGCA surveying shows a reduc- prices and expanding domestic feed grain half the feed wheat yield difference at the
tion of just under 20 percent in the area of markets for bioethanol. base price of £155/tonne, making milling
Group 1 & 2 wheats grown in the UK over The indicative margins our farm manage- wheat a seriously unattractive proposition.
the past four years – from 650,000 ha in ment specialists calculate on a regular basis Under these circumstances and with such
2009/10 to less than 530, 000 ha in the most for our agronomists to work with their grow- pressures on margins and workloads, it is
recent season (Figure 1). ers, indeed, show milling wheat stacking-up hardly surprising so many growers are losing
HGCA quality records further show 2011 relatively poorly against feed wheat produc- confidence in milling wheat. All the more
was the best year for wheat quality since tion – even before the latest steep rises in so with the premium variations and intake
2006 with 40 percent of Group 1 samples world markets. deductions they encounter, not to mention
making the full 13 percent pro- increasing economic and environ-
tein, 250 Hagberg, 76 kg/hl spe- mental pressures on nitrogen and
cific weight milling specification. other essential input use.
This meant quality wheats were
in reasonable supply despite the Meeting milling
substantial shift away from milling specifications
wheat growing. In addition, of course, there
is an urgent need to respond to
2012 outlook the serious black-grass challenge
This year, however, things look facing up to 20 percent of the
set to be very different. Protein lev- present wheat area and the legacy
els and specific weights, in particular, of the most substantial take-all
are widely expected to be disap- and foliar disease season in recent
pointing. Fusarium infections have memory; challenges which may
heightened mycotoxin concerns. Figure 1: Group 1 & 2 Wheat Area well necessitate alternative crop-
And the atrociously wet summer Source: AHDB HGCA Variety Survey Results ping strategies in some cases, with
meant a challenging, delayed harvest. particular consequences for the
24 | July - august 2012 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy

3. FEATURE
Added to data from Experience, after all, teaches growers
breeders and official that however attractive premiums may
testing, this allows us appear for the immediate season, they
to pick varieties that cannot be relied upon for the period
will best meet our over which they are having to budget
customers’ require- (2013/14 sales for crops planted this
ments and provide the autumn).
best possible advice In recent years we have been involved in
on their suitability for the development of a number of dynamic
different rotational market-led examples for encouraging suf-
slots and conditions. ficient supplies of crops for value-added
It also means we can markets that could provide a model for the
offer the most timely new, more productive industry relationship
agronomic support to we believe is vital for the health of UK milling
Figure 2: Proportion of Group 1 Wheat Samples
help improve produc- wheat production.
Achieving Full Milling Specification Source: AHDB
HGCA Quality Survey Results tion efficiency and reli- Particularly attractive in this context are
ability in the face of the arrangements that have been developed
the increasing seasonal to encourage the reliable supply of specialist
second wheat slot in which so many milling variability associated with climate change. rapeseed and oats.
wheats are currently grown. This detailed variety understanding fur- Closed-loop contracts have been devel-
Our industry-leading Co-ordinated ther means we can plan seed production, oped between growers and OSR crushers
Growing Systems (COGS) research into and work with buyers through our partners, for High Oleic, Low Linolenic (HOLL) rape
varietal capabilities and agronomy across Glencore and Scotgrain to secure ready to serve the healthy cooking oil market,
different soil types is enabling us to develop markets ahead of a variety’s commercial and between growers and millers for
very much more reliable recipes for milling availability. That way we’re able to ensure naked oats for human food and high value
wheat production for growers across the both sufficient seed supply and sufficient animal feeds.
country; particularly so as far as meeting the end-market demand. These offer fixed premia over standard
protein specification – by far the most com- In parallel, close working with wheat rapeseed and feed wheat respectively for
mon reason for Group 1 sample failures – is breeders through leading UK authority, Bill supplies meeting agreed specifications grown
concerned. Angus is giving us a valuable edge in making on specific contract; arrangements which
We have, for instance, established indi- the most of the much more rapid vari- provide growers with the assurance they will
vidual response curves for grain protein ety progress possible through exciting new receive a set premium for a specific crop if it
accumulation from applied nitrogen for key genetic technologies like genome mapping, makes the required specification before they
varieties on heavy and light soils over a marker-assisted selection, double haploidy commit to growing it. And equally, from the
number of seasons as the basis for far more and single seed descent. processors’ stand-point that they can secure
precise agronomy. the supplies they need to serve their custom-
Equally, extensive long-term black-grass Encouraging sustainable crop ers at a fixed premium over the commodity
and second wheat management studies are valuation market.
allowing us to support producers with the Even so, all this work alone won’t be suf- In the face of the serious production,
best possible guidance on maintaining winter ficient to prevent the decline in milling wheat market and environmental pressures fac-
wheat viability in face of the most important growing reaching a level at which it causes ing milling wheat producers, we no doubt
agronomic challenges. serious future supply shortages. It needs that such a thoroughly joined-up industry
Through our work we’re able to estab- to be accompanied by an altogether more approach to marketing as well agronomy will
lish early in an emerging variety’s life how sustainable and predictable approach to crop be essential to the very future of UK milling
good it really is and where it best fits. valuation and premium-setting. wheat production.
Grain &feed millinG technoloGy July - august 2012 | 25

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