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CAMS GS Global Analyses
1. How are global analyses,
forecasts and re-analyses
produced?
Copernicus
Atmosphere
Monitoring
Service
Richard Engelen (ECMWF)
On behalf of CAMS30 team
8. CURRENT STATUS
โข 80 km horizontal resolution
โข One 5-day forecasts per day
โข 00UTC forecast available before 22 UTC
โข 40 km horizontal resolution
โข Two 5-day forecasts per day
โข 12UTC forecast available before 22 UTC
9. GFAS AND GHG SYSTEMS
GFAS currently provides daily estimates of global fire radiative
power and fire emissions of many species.
Aim is to better estimate diurnal cycle and forecasted emissions
(links with Land and Emergency services) and fully embed in
operational global system.
GHG system analyses CO2 and CH4 5 days behind real-time and
provides daily real-time 10-day forecasts of the same species.
Aim is to merge the two systems and run them as close to real-time
as observation availability allows.
10. CAMS REANALYSIS
CAMS interim reanalysis
MACC reanalysis
MACC/CAMS real-time
Control
Using experience from
MACC and CAMS-interim
reanalyses, the 1st CAMS
Reanalysis will start later
this year.
2003 โ 2017
All current species
Additional observations
Ozone score
11. USE OF GLOBAL SERVICES
โข Boundary conditions (CAMS, PANDA, HTAP,โฆ)
โข Pollution and long-range transport on global scale (e.g.,
large wildfires, volcanos eruptions, dust storms)
โข Input for downscaling applications (e.g., smartphone
apps)
โข Input for national forecasting services (e.g., dust, UV)
โข WMO warning advisory centres
โข Scientific community (field campaigns, scientific
studies, ...)
โข ...
12. GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT
Innovation distinguishes between a leader and a follower
Steve Jobs
โข Use new satellite products: S3, S5p, OCO-2, S-NPP
โข Improved UV products (health)
โข More accurate surface aerosol and deposition (health, solar energy)
โข Nitrates (key link between chemistry and aerosol)
โข Stratospheric chemistry (ozone layer)
โข Volcanic eruptions (impact on air travel and climate)
โข More accurate methane emissions (monitoring of carbon cycle)
โข Increased resolution
โข โฆ