4. Causes
the birth and death
rates are equaling,
with the result of a
stop in the natural
growth of the
population (or zero
growth) or also
becoming negative
5. Population effects
The decrease in the birth rate will cause an
increase in mortality and an effective decrease
in the population. That’s means a loss of millions
of European inhabitants in the first half of this
century and an alarming ageing of the
population.
6. Social and economic effects
There are repercussions for society as a whole.
These negative repercussions range from
excessive Social Security burdens to the
provision of social services, to serious
imbalances in production and consumption
structures, as well as in social and economic
areas that are closely related to age, such as ,
education and health care.
7. Situation in Spain
The population over 65 years
old is around 17% of the total
population, with more than 7
million people (INE, 2008), of
which approximately 25% are
octogenarian. In this sense
and according to the
projections made by the INE,
in the year 2050, people over
65 will be over 30% the
population (with almost 13
million) and the
octogenarians will reach
more than 4 million, which
would suppose more than
30% of the total of the
greater population.
8. Problems in Spain
the welfare state (which
among other things cares
about health care,
pensions and social
services) is maintained by
workers' taxes, and if there
are more elderly people
and fewer workers, we
have a problem in addition
to the fact that older
people are more
dependent. So they need
more health care in
addition to pensions.
9. Pensions
Population projections published by the INE give an
account of the effects this demographic change will
have on the pension system. Currently, the
relationship between people of working age (16 to
65 years old) and retired people (over 65 years old)
is more than 3 to 1 (more than three people of
working age for each retiree). If the INE is correct, in
2066 that proportion will only reach 1.5. That is,
21.8 million people of working age compared to
14.19 people over 65 years of age
