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Peijun SHI1,2,3, Jing’ai WANG1,3,4, Wei XU2,3, Jiabing SHUAI1,2, Lili LU1,2, Feng KONG1,2, Qinqing SHI5 1State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology of Beijing Normal University, China; 2Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, China; 3Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management of Ministry of Civil Affairs and Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, China; 4School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, China; 5The University of Maryland, USA;

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This article aims to demonstrate that the Lula government is faced with two major challenges in its effort to promote Brazil's economic and social development. The first challenge, of an economic nature, is represented by the obstacles that exist with the spending cap policy, despite the flexibility provided by the fiscal framework and the existence of an independent Central Bank, which make the Brazilian government unable to coordinate its fiscal and monetary policies, make public investments in the expansion of the economy and obtain macroeconomic stability and, the second challenge, of a political nature, is represented by the obstacles existing in the National Congress due to the fact that it does not have a majority in parliament, which prevents the federal government from putting its national developmental project into practice and fully meet social demands. For Brazil's progressive forces to re-elect President Lula in the 2026 presidential elections and obtain a parliamentary majority in the National Congress committed to political, economic and social advances, the Lula government will have to be successful on the economic front, promoting the expansion of the economy, increasing significantly generating jobs and income, keeping inflation under control and meeting the maximum social demands that benefit, above all, the country's underserved populations. Brazil's progressive forces need to commit, starting from the 2024 municipal elections, towards to elect the maximum number of mayors and councilors committed to Brazil's political, economic and social advances. These are the conditions to prevent, in 2026, right-wing extremists from regaining the Presidency of the Republic, expanding their participation in state governments and the National Congress and putting their nefarious anti-social and anti-national project into practice.

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