Formation mechanism, process and risk evaluation system of disaster chain

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Peijun SHI1,2,3, Jing’ai WANG1,3,4, Wei XU2,3, Jiabing SHUAI1,2, Lili LU1,2, Feng KONG1,2, Qinqing SHI5

1State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology of Beijing Normal University, China; 2Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, China; 3Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management of Ministry of Civil Affairs and Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, China; 4School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, China; 5The University of Maryland, USA;

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Formation mechanism, process and risk evaluation system of disaster chain

  1. 1. 4th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2012"Integrative Risk Management in a Changing World - Pathways to a Resilient Society"26-30 August 2012Davos, Switzerland Formation mechanism, processes and risk assessment system of disaster group and disaster chain Peijun Shi State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University; Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education of China; Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education, P.R.China 1
  2. 2. Contents1 Background2 Disaster Group (DG) and Disaster Chain (DC)3 DG and DC Risk Assessment System4 The Case Study of DG and DC5 Conclusions 2
  3. 3. 1 Natural disasters, especially the large-scale disasters (LSD) have become the biggest obstacle to the Background achievement of the Millennium Development and Sustainable Development. (UNDP,2004) The relationship between LSD and disaster chain, disaster groups: disaster chain and disaster groups may expand the scope of disaster areas or increase the intensity of hazard, then aggravate the disaster. 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake-tsunami LSD 2008 Southern China snow-ice strom LSD 3 2008 Wenchuan earthquake-landslide LSD 2011 Japan earthquake-tsunami LSD
  4. 4. Contents1 Background 2 Disaster Group (DG) and Disaster Chain (DC) 3 DG and DC Risk Assessment System 4 The Case Study of DG and DC 5 Conclusions 4
  5. 5. 2 Disaster Group and Disaster Chain Definition of Disaster Group ( Muti-Hazards): the phenomenon that various hazards happen during the same period triggered by a specific factor of the Earth system, or several hazards cluster in the same place controlled by a factor of the Earth surface. Definition of Disaster Chain: the phenomenon that the occurrence of a hazard causes series of secondary disasters. 5
  6. 6. 2 Disaster Group and Disaster Chain Formation of Disaster Group: Fig.1 The general mode of disaster group (Mode of setting off a chain of events) E represents the natural dynamic processes of the Earth system, H1,..Hm represent original hazards. Formation of Disaster Chain:Fig.2 Parallel disasters chain (the mode that Fig. 3 Serial disaster chain (a "domino effect" a tossed stone raises a thousand ripples) mode)E represents the natural dynamic processes of the H represents the hazard, d1 represents the originalEarth system, H1,..Hm represent original hazards, disaster, dn represents secondary disasters.d1, dn, dm1, dmn represent secondary disasters. 6
  7. 7. 2 Disaster Group and Disaster Chain Difference between Disaster Group and Disaster Chain: Disaster Group Disaster Chain Concurrent and frequent processes Disaster chain is a chain process of disaster groups rely on the geo- that a particular hazard causes spatial location (ie, latitude and another hazard or multiple longitude) and evolution stage, with hazards, mainly depending on the little association with geographical specific physical and human environment. geography environment. Mainly depend on the linkage Closely related to the risk between the natural elements of defensive capability of human Earth system beings. Muti-hazarts meeting to together can Disaster chains can cause large-scale cause large-scale disaster disaster 7
  8. 8. Contents1 Background 2 Disaster Group (DG) and Disaster Chain (DC) 3 DG and DC Risk Assessment System 4 The Case Study of DG and DC 5 Conclusions 8
  9. 9. 3 DG and DC Risk Assessment System Disaster Group Risk Assessment System: Disaster group risk assessment is basically consistent with multi-hazard risk assessment. Disaster group risk assessment is consisted of three parts, including assessment of the hazard-formative environment stability(sensing), multi-hazards assessment, vulnerability assessment of disaster-affected bodies. Disaster Chain Risk Assessment System: Although the literature of the disaster chain risk assessment is relatively few, researchers are trying to find a variety of quantitative methods to assess the disasters chains risk. Typical methods include case index system method, the hazard trees model, the domino effect model, the Cascading effect model etc. 9
  10. 10. 3 DG and DC Risk Assessment SystemFramework of DG and DC Risk Assessment 10
  11. 11. Contents1 Background 2 Disaster Group (DG) and Disaster Chain (DC) 3 DG and DC Risk Assessment System 4 The Case Study of DG and DC 5 Conclusions 11
  12. 12. 4 The Case Study of DCCase study of Disaster Chain-Wenchuan Earthquake  14:28 pm on May 12 of 2008, a major earthquake measuring 8 Richter scale jolted Wenchuan County of Southwest China’s Sichuan province.  The most serious earthquake of China since 1949:  high intensity  large disaster-affected area  serious frequent aftershocks and secondary disasters  the enormous difficulties in emergency response  the most severe damages and losses 12
  13. 13. Power—CommunicationFreezing Rain & Snowstorm Disaster, Southern of China, 2008
  14. 14. 山体崩塌Mountain Collapse 从山顶至山谷 200—300 米 唐家山堰塞湖坝顶一角
  15. 15. Map of Seismic Intensity Zoning VII VIII EpicenterThe most inner intensity is: IX(9), X(10) grade and its above依据中国地震局现场调查数据、航卫片判读、强震记录、余震分布、震源破裂过程、地震地面运动拟合数据、震源机制、地表破裂形迹等综合编制。国家汶川地震专家委员会地震烈度等震线评估组。 08 -05 - 27 。 Inner material by the State Seismological Bureau of China
  16. 16. 4 The Case Study of DC Heavy RainRock Collapse Landslides Debris Flow Barrier lakes Earthquake Wenchuan Earthquake Disaster Chain 17
  17. 17. 4 The Case Study of DC DI=∑(fk* DIk) Disaster Index: DIk is the normalized indicator value : DIk = [DIk –min(DIk)]/ [max(DIk)- min(DIk)] ; fk is the weight for each indicator Indicators and Weights Indicator (DIk ) Weight ( f k)Average magnitude of earthquake 0.30Indices of geological disaster Impacted Residents 0.10 deaths and missing Number of deaths and missing people 0.15 people percentage of deaths and missing people 0.15collapsed houses Number of collapsed houses 0.10 Number of collapsed houses per 10,000 0.10 personsPercentage of people relocated 0.10
  18. 18. 4 The Case Study of DC The Estimation of LossesProvinces Losses (billion RMB) Percentage(%)Sichuan 771.8 90.5Gansu 50.5 5. 9Shaan’xi 22.8 2.7Chongqing 5.4 0.6Yunan 1.7 0.2Ningxia 0.8 0.1Total 853.0 100.0
  19. 19. 4 The Case Study of DG Case study of Disaster Group-Snow and icestorm in Southern China From mid-January to early February, 2008, most parts of China, especially Southern China experienced this sever snow and ice storms disaster. The most serious snow and ice storms disaster in Southern Chinasince 1949:  Affected wide-range area  Lasted for long period  Extreme lower temperature  Affluence precipitation  Thick snow frozen 20
  20. 20. Power—CommunicationFreezing Rain & Snowstorm Disaster, Southern of China, 2008
  21. 21. 4 The Case Study of DGSnow and Ice Storm Disaster Groups in Southern China 22
  22. 22. 4 The Case Study of DGThe four layers of ice accumulated during the four sub-events from January 10 to February 6, 2008 in Hunan Province 23
  23. 23. 4 The Case Study of DGDirect Economic Loss: 159.48 billion RMBIndirect Economic Loss Estimation Model: Loss=Σxiqi Where, Xi is the total production amount of ith industrial sector; qi is the production amount of ith industrial sector after disaster with its normal production amount. Indirect economic loss Losses (billion RMB) caused by Failure of Electricity 6.25 Traffic Disruption 3.95 The Estimation of Indirect Economic Losses in Hunan Province 24
  24. 24. Contents1 Background 2 Disaster Group (DG) and Disaster Chain (DC) 3 DG and DC Risk Assessment System 4 The Case Study of DG and DC 5 Conclusions 25
  25. 25. 5 Conclusions Disaster group(Muti-Hazarts) and disaster chain are distinguished. Based on disaster system theory, formation of the disaster group mainly relates to physical hazard-formative environments, and the formation of the disaster chain is closely related to physical hazard-formative environments and exposures. Disaster chain risk assessment and multi--hazarts risk assessment have a fundamentally difference. For risk assessment of disaster group (multi- hazarts), except for consideration of probability of each hazard, possiability of multiple hazards meet together shall be assessed of certain space-time condition. For risk assessment of disaster chain, in addition to the probability of first hazard, probability that lead to secondary hazard shall be assessed under certain space-time condition. Based on the understanding of disaster group and disaster chain formation mechanism and process, we conducted two cases study and the results were presented. 26
  26. 26. Thank you ! 27

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