1. F
(6269.TW/6269 TT) 1.1 27.2%
4Q11 15.2% 3.82 3.27 QoQ -12.9%
YoY 79.4% 1.86
NT$67.6
2011/2012 6.57/8.77
1
2 886.2.2181.8743 2011 6.2%
3 bonny.weng@kgisia.com.tw 5.1% 74.17 13.58
4.0% 11.55 17.58
4Q11 21.3%
6.57
2.14 13.4%
2012 (1)
1Q12 6.9%
(2)
1.86
(3) 45%
2012 33.5%
8.77 11 96
42% 2012
38.3% 102.58
4Q11 21.3% 2.14
35.8% 33.5% 18.45
4Q11
15.42 8.77
2011 2012
2011F 2012F
4Q11
(%) (%) (%)
23.81 QoQ 21.3% YoY 74.4% 6,987 7,417 6.2 9,761 10,258 5.1 38.3
2,005 2,109 5.2 2,789 2,843 2.0 34.8
2.3 28.3% 1,292 1,358 5.1 1,845 1,845 0.0 35.8
1,111 1,155 4.0 1,534 1,542 0.5 33.5
8.2% 4.50 3.75
EPS ( ) 6.35 6.57 8.77 8.77
QoQ 3.5% YoY 259.0% (%) 28.7 28.4 (0.3) 28.6 27.7 (0.9) (0.7)
(%) 18.5 18.3 (0.2) 18.9 18.0 (0.9) (0.3)
17.58 2.14 (%) 15.9 15.6 (0.3) 15.7 15.0 (0.7) (0.5)
4Q11 1Q12
4Q11F 1Q12F
(%) QoQ(%) QoQ(%) YoY(%)
1,951 2,381 22.1 21.3 2,216 (6.9) 58.3
570 674 18.2 12.2 603 (10.4) 79.4
385 450 17.0 8.2 382 (15.2) 115.7
331 375 13.4 3.5 327 (12.9) 79.4 2011 2012
EPS ( ) 1.89 2.14 1.86 (12.9)
(%) 29.2 28.3 (0.9) (2.3) 27.2 (1.1) 3.2 10.3 7.7 6 12
(%) 19.7 18.9 (0.8) (2.3) 17.2 (1.7) 4.6
(%) 17.0 15.7 (1.3) (2.8) 14.7 (1.0) 1.7
2012 8.77 11
1Q12
96
1Q12
6.9% 22.16
http://research.kgi.com 2011 12 8 1

2. F
(
12 31
)
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
2009A 3,088 773 457 394 2.76 3.09
2010A 4,553 1,018 635 576 3.98 4.46
2011F 7,417 2,109 1,358 1,155 6.57 7.64
2012F 10,258 2,843 1,845 1,542 8.77 10.14
(
12 31 EV/sales EV/EBITDA EV/Inv. C
)
(x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (%)
2009A 2.9 15.1 24.5 21.8 3.9 21.4
2010A 2.0 12.1 17.0 15.2 3.4 27.3
2011F 1.5 7.0 10.3 8.8 2.4 38.9
2012F 1.1 5.2 7.7 6.7 1.9 36.6
52 ( / ): 47.3 - 91.4
12 ( ) 96.0 ( / ): 11.9/395
/ (%) 42.0 ( ): 176
(percentile, %) 79 ( ): 176
-12/11 (%) 4.4 ( ): 24
-12/11 (NT$) 21.0 3 ( ): 3.8
-12/11 (x) 3.2 % (3,6,12 ) -21.1; -2.3; 39.1
-12/11 (%) % (3,6,12 ) -15.3; 25.1; 72.2
:
1Q11A 2Q11A 3Q11A 4Q11F 1Q12F 2Q12F 3Q12F 4Q12F 2011F 2012F
(NT$ )
1,400 1,674 1,963 2,381 2,216 2,503 2,799 2,741 7,417 10,258
1,063 1,175 1,362 1,707 1,613 1,801 2,003 1,998 5,308 7,415
336 498 600 674 603 702 795 742 2,109 2,843
159 183 185 224 222 245 266 266 751 999
177 315 416 450 382 457 530 477 1,358 1,845
25 35 64 64 58 59 60 59 188 236
4 1 2 4 4 4 4 4 12 15
EBITDA 206 352 482 518 444 520 593 539 1,558 2,096
5 7 9 10 10 10 10 10 31 39
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
44 25 45 27 23 14 18 17 141 72
49 31 55 37 33 24 28 27 172 111
6 6 6 6 6 7 8 7 24 29
6 6 6 6 6 7 8 7 24 29
221 340 465 481 408 473 549 496 1,506 1,927
( ) 38 105 102 105 81 93 110 100 351 385
182 235 363 375 327 380 439 396 1,155 1,542
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
182 235 363 375 327 380 439 396 1,155 1,542
EPS 1.25 1.93 2.64 2.74 2.32 2.69 3.12 2.82 9.18 10.96
EPS 1.04 1.34 2.06 2.14 1.86 2.16 2.50 2.25 6.57 8.77
(%)
24.0 29.8 30.6 28.3 27.2 28.0 28.4 27.1 28.4 27.7
12.6 18.8 21.2 18.9 17.2 18.2 18.9 17.4 18.3 18.0
EBITDA Margin 14.7 21.0 24.6 21.8 20.0 20.8 21.2 19.7 21.0 20.4
15.8 20.3 23.7 20.2 18.4 18.9 19.6 18.1 20.3 18.8
13.0 14.0 18.5 15.8 14.8 15.2 15.7 14.4 15.6 15.0
(%)
2.5 19.6 17.3 21.3 (6.9) 12.9 11.8 (2.1) 62.9 38.3
43.3 48.2 20.5 12.2 (10.4) 16.3 13.3 (6.7) 107.1 34.8
52.9 78.0 32.0 8.2 (15.2) 19.6 16.0 (10.0) 113.8 35.8
EBITDA 36.5 70.9 37.1 7.5 (14.4) 17.1 14.2 (9.1) 103.8 34.6
102.7 54.2 36.7 3.4 (15.1) 15.9 16.0 (9.6) 124.5 27.9
74.3 28.7 54.6 3.5 (12.9) 16.2 15.5 (9.8) 100.6 33.5
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3. F
1997
45% 45% 10% 1H11 2.50
2.06 2.14 2.16
NB 42% 24% 1.86
32 2% 1.34
1.04
0.72
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11F 1Q12F 2Q12F 3Q12F
1H11
[2%] 130 50
120 40
10
LED 30
110
10 32 20
100
10
14 90
0
80 (10)
32 70 (20)
Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11
NB/PC
3,000 100 14.0x 12.0x
10.0x
2,500 80
8.0x
2,000 60
6.0x
1,500 40
4.0x
1,000 20 2.0x
0
500
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11F 1Q12F 2Q12F 3Q12F 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
維持穩定
4.0x
29.8 30.6 100
28.3 27.2 28.0 28.4 3.4x
24.0 80
2.8x
17.2 60 2.2x
40 1.6x
1.0x
20
0.4x
0
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11F 1Q12F 2Q12F 3Q12F 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
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4. F
12 31 ( ) 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 12 31 ( ) 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F
2,882 3,299 4,130 6,595 8,711 2,818 3,088 4,553 7,417 10,258
1,867 2,394 3,038 4,959 6,512 2,188 2,315 3,534 5,308 7,415
658 977 1,015 1,806 2,142 630 773 1,018 2,109 2,843
238 264 469 603 843 281 316 383 751 999
936 1,123 1,470 2,479 3,429
349 457 635 1,358 1,845
34 30 83 71 98
3 (3) 2 7 11
1,015 905 1,092 1,636 2,199
0 0 4 4 4 10 6 9 31 39
881 836 949 1,552 2,116 8 9 7 24 29
134 69 140 80 80 0 0 0 0 0
1,195 1,307 1,897 2,895 3,997 9 27 34 141 72
970 1,158 1,765 2,527 3,498 (0) 0 0 0 0
381 522 790 1,091 1,524 360 481 671 1,506 1,927
281 218 344 447 607 63 87 95 351 385
309 419 631 989 1,368 297 394 576 1,155 1,542
225 149 132 368 498 EBITDA 512 597 764 1,558 2,096
223 147 120 366 496
( ) 2.11 2.76 3.98 6.57 8.77
2 2 12 2 2
1,687 1,992 2,233 3,700 4,715
1,198 1,359 1,446 1,758 1,758
334 204 (13) (13) (13)
155 429 800 1,955 2,970
0 0 0 0 0
12 31 ( ) 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F
238 577 580 883 1,389
297 394 576 1,155 1,542
163 140 129 200 251
(222) 43 (125) (472) (404)
12 31 ( ) 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F
(% ) 0 0 0 0 0
-- 9.6 47.4 62.9 38.3 (107) (30) (316) (744) (815)
-- 31.0 38.9 113.8 35.8 (6) (80) (232) (792) (800)
EBITDA -- 16.7 28.0 103.8 34.6 0 0 (4) 0 0
-- 32.6 46.1 100.6 33.5 (101) 50 (81) 48 (15)
-- 30.7 44.1 65.0 33.5 Free Cash Flow 131 547 264 139 574
(%)
67 (228) (226) 651 (237)
22.4 25.0 22.4 28.4 27.7
(2) (89) (335) 312 (527)
12.4 14.8 14.0 18.3 18.0
67 (139) 99 349 290
EBITDA 18.2 19.3 16.8 21.0 20.4
10.6 12.8 12.6 15.6 15.0 2 0 10 (10) 0
11.1 12.8 15.5 21.5 20.1 199 319 38 790 337
19.3 21.4 27.3 38.9 36.6
/
(%) 29.9 18.3 20.8 22.0 23.4
(%) Net cash Net cash Net cash Net cash Net cash
(X) 48.2 54.4 91.0 64.8 68.1
ROIC (Return on Invested Capital)
(X) 1.3 2.2 1.9 3.3 3.1
Cash Flow Int. Coverage (X) 31.2 64.1 77.8 37.4 48.3 12 31 1- + + =
Cash Flow/Int. & ST Debt (X) 0.8 2.5 1.7 1.9 2.2
2008A 71.9% 5.8% 10.0% 12.4%
(X) 1.9 2.1 1.7 2.0 1.9
2009A 70.4% 4.5% 10.2% 14.8%
(X) 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.6
2010A 74.8% 2.8% 8.4% 14.0%
(NT$ ) (78) (383) (582) (772) (1,016) 2011F 68.9% 2.7% 10.1% 18.3%
(NT$ )
2012F 69.8% 2.5% 9.7% 18.0%
2.11 2.76 3.98 6.57 8.77
3.27 3.74 4.87 8.26 10.20 12 31 1/ + + =
12.00 13.97 15.44 21.05 26.82 2008A 0.2 0.3 0.0 1.7
20.05 21.65 31.48 42.20 58.36 2009A 0.2 0.3 0.0 2.0
EBITDA/shr 2.48 3.21 4.39 7.72 10.49 2010A 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.4
N.D. N.D. 2.00 3.00 4.20 2011F 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.4
2012F 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.5
(X) 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.3 12 31 x x 1- = ROIC
121.3 132.8 117.9 122.0 122.0 2008A 12.4% 1.7 82.6% 17.2%
30.8 31.2 37.6 29.7 30.0 2009A 14.8% 2.0 81.9% 24.4%
49.3 61.7 63.3 53.7 54.2 2010A 14.0% 2.4 85.8% 28.4%
2011F 18.3% 2.4 76.7% 33.9%
102.8 102.2 92.2 98.0 97.8
2012F 18.0% 2.5 80.0% 35.2%
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5. F
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11
( )
7-Dec-11 67.6 96.0 96.0
21-Oct-11 72.6 88.0 96.0
2-Sep-11 86.0 88.0 88.0
30-Aug-11 85.8 88.0 88.0
22-Jul-11 85.0 66.0 88.0
22-Feb-11 55.8 67.0 66.0
14-Jan-11 57.6 57.0 67.0
2-Nov-10 48.2 54.0 57.0
17-Aug-10 44.4 N.A. 54.0
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6. 100 A 1907-1909 104 700
200051 886.2.2181.8888
886.2.8501.1691
2014 A 24D1
518008
852.2878.6888 8th - 11th floors, Asia Centre Building
852.2878.6800 173 South Sathorn Road, Bangkok 10120, Thailand
66.2658.8888
66.2658.8014
(OP) (Excessive Return)
( ) 40%
(N) ( )
40% 40%
(U) ( )
40%
(NR)
(R ) /
* =( / )–1
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