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2014 fall 投資學 期末簡報
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2014 fall 投資學 期末簡報
1.
2.
2107厚生 2402毅嘉 2311日月光 5522遠雄 2634漢翔
2330台積電 6269台郡 2618長榮航 6153嘉聯益 1626艾美 2615萬海 1402遠東新 1338廣華 2207和泰車 2603長榮 1216 統一 2454聯發科 9907統一實 1101台泥 5287數字 投資區間 9/19~12/260 1 700 800 900 1000 1100
3.
• 第一階段 –摸索期 •
第二階段 –成長期 • 第三階段--穩定期 Outline0 2
4.
• [2412中華電] • [2402毅嘉] •
[6269台郡] • [6153嘉聯益] • [2107厚生] • [2634漢翔] 第一階段 First stage1 如何選股 3
5.
第一階段 First stage1 設立停損點 •
[2412中華電] 89元 • [2402毅嘉] 35元 • [6269台郡] 不需要 (設停利) • [6153嘉聯益] 跌破20日 • [2107厚生] 沒設 • [2634漢翔] 沒設 4
6.
999 959 973 943 9,240 8,990 9,106 8,966 8,800 8,900 9,000 9,100 9,200 9,300 850 900 950 1,000 1,050 2014/9/19 2014/9/26
2014/10/3 2014/10/9 投組表現 指數 第一階段 First stage1 10/09 投組未停損 萬 元 5
7.
• 技術面 KD
黃金交叉 股價突破月線 • 基本面 訂單增 財報表現良好 第一階段 First stage1 10/09 買進和泰車 6
8.
999 959 973 943 857 9,240 8,990 9,106 8,966 8,513 8,400 8,600 8,800 9,000 9,200 850 900 950 1000 1050 9/19 9/26 10/03
10/09 10/17 投組 大盤 第一階段 First stage1 10/17投組虧損150萬 萬 元 7
9.
美股波動性高 外資放空台股 第一階段 First stage1 檢討投資失利 大盤走低 8
10.
股價已反應消息? 承銷價 30元 37.55 買進 1
檢討投資失利 市場消息解讀 第一階段 First stage [2634漢翔] 9
11.
• 好蘋果還是毒蘋果 比重 9/19收盤價
10/17收盤價 跌幅 2153嘉聯益 16.64% 40.95 32.2 21.37% 6269台郡 20.68% 82.6 59.7 27.72% 2402毅嘉 16.40% 40.95 29.25 28.57% 1 檢討投資失利 市場消息解讀 第一階段 First stage 10
12.
24% 7% 5% 64% 蘋果軟板供應商占比 F-臻鼎 台郡 嘉聯益 其他 Iphone 利多反應完畢
旺季營收不佳 外資調降蘋供應鏈評 等 勝華(2384) 破產重整 1 檢討投資失利 軟板大跌原因 第一階段 First stage 11
13.
• Follow the
stupid money • Take some risk --Law 、tech 2 Strategy 第二階段 Second stage 12
14.
跟著大家買(同學) 買被低估的績優股(外資喊) [2330台積電] [2311日月光] 115 120 125 130 32 34 36 38 40 2 Follow
the stupid money 第二階段 Second stage 13
15.
跟著大家買(同學) 買被低估的績優股(外資喊) [2454聯發科] 400 450 500 同學: 損益兩平 我們: 賺 同學:
虧損 我們: 虧損 2 Follow the stupid money 第二階段 Second stage 14
16.
• 買進股價下滑的績優股 [1338廣華] 2 Take
some risks 第二階段 Second stage 15
17.
• 買進有法律糾紛的績優股 [5287數字] [5522遠雄] 293買進 325停利 32.55買進 2
Take some risks 第二階段 Second stage 38 16
18.
2 11/28 淨值重回千萬 第二階段 Second
stage 999 959 973 943 857 866 894 934 940 986 1,009 8,000 8,200 8,400 8,600 8,800 9,000 9,200 9,400 850 870 890 910 930 950 970 990 1010 1030 9/19 9/26 10/03 10/09 10/17 10/20 10/24 10/31 11/07 11/21 11/28 投組 大盤 17
19.
停利 – Ex: 和泰車、聯發科、數字、廣華
(賣) 油價下跌 買入航運股 – Ex: 長榮航、長榮海、萬海 保守投資 轉入現金股 – Ex: 中華電、台泥 3 保守穩健的投資策略 第三階段 Third stage 18
20.
2207和泰車 2454聯發科
5287數字 3 停利 股票轉現金 第三階段 Third stage 19
21.
2603長榮海 2615萬海 2618長榮航 3 油價下跌 航運股偏多 第三階段 Third
stage 20
22.
3 增加(類)現金部位 第三階段 Third stage 8.65% 15.62% 9.04% 6.29% 20.07% 19.87% 14.30% 1.89% 0.43% 2.09% 1.80% 25.92% 30.72% 29.18% 28.97% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 850 900 950 1000 1050 1100 投組淨值
現金部位 21
23.
4 總結 Conclusion 第一階段 第二階段 第三階段 自由選股 策略不定 認賠出場 參考同儕 活用所學 反向操作 停利出場 轉進現金 保守操作 22
24.
4 總結 Conclusion 投組與大盤比較 8,400 8,600 8,800 9,000 9,200 9,400 850 870 890 910 930 950 970 990 1010 1030 投資組合淨額 台灣加權股價指數 千 萬 23
25.
4 總結 Conclusion 投組與大盤波動度比較 -2.71% 1.30% -1.54% -5.06% 1.77% -0.20% 3.80% -0.69% 2.01% 1.05% 0.21% -1.95% -0.31% 3.19% -3.98% 1.42% -3.01% -9.11% 1.05% 3.22% 4.40% 0.64% 4.94% 2.28% 0.33% -0.90% 0.09% 0.76% -11% -9% -7% -5% -3% -1% 1% 3% 5% 大盤波動度 投組波動度 24
26.
4 績效評估 Treynor
Measure βi = 1.416 (𝑟𝑖 − 𝑟𝑓) 𝛽 𝑟𝑖 = 0.09338% 𝑟 𝑚 = 0.04124% Portfolio: 5.88 × 10−4 Market: 3.11 × 10−4 25
27.
(𝑟𝑖 − 𝑟𝑓) 𝜎𝑖 Portfolio:
0.022 Market: 0.014 4 績效評估 Sharpe Measure 26
28.
4 績效評估 Jenson’s
Measure α = 𝑟𝑖 − 𝑟𝑓 − 𝑟 𝑚 − 𝑟𝑓 ∗ 𝛽𝑖 α = 0.0392 27
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