This is the first Presidential election where social media reflects and affects the outcome for both sides. Political candidates have brands, just like companies do. They’re influenced by many of the same market forces, and social media is one of those forces. The team at Portent put together this evaluation of the Romney and Obama presidential campaigns based on Facebook data collected since April 2012. Our analysis shows problems for both sides: A universe problem for Gov. Romney, and an agility problem for Pres. Obama. Note: We will update this report as the election progresses. Please subscribe to our blog at http://www.portent.com/blog if you'd like to keep track.

1. THE UNIVERSE PROBLEM
Poll results, Facebook, and the 2012 Presidential campaign
Ian Lurie, CEO, Portent
www.portent.com
@portentint
ian@portent.com

2. Overview
This is the first Presidential election where social media reflects
and affects the outcome for both sides.
Political candidates have brands, just like companies do. They’re
influenced by many of the same market forces, and social media
is one of those forces.
The team at Portent put together this evaluation of the Romney
and Obama presidential campaigns based on Facebook data
collected since April 2012.
Our analysis shows problems for both sides: A universe problem
for Gov. Romney, and an agility problem for Pres. Obama.

3. Data sources
We collected our data from:
- Facebook’s Open Graph API. We collected daily follower
counts, plus up to 200 post datapoints per candidate. We
could not collect 100% of posts, likes and shares for each
candidate due to Facebook API limitations.
- Gallup polling data.
- The Huffington Post ‘poll of polls’.

4. Facebook follower growth
If you compare Facebook follower growth, it looks like Romney
is racing ahead. His best growth rate in Facebook followers was
nearly 4%, in early August 2012.
President Obama never exceeds 0.181%.
In August, Romney grew his Facebook audience more than 20
times faster.
2012
high
Facebook
follower
growth
rate
3.67%
0.181%
President
Obama
Governor
Romney

5. Facebook follower growth
But, President Obama now has more than 29 million Facebook
followers. That’s more people than live in the state of Texas, by
the way.
Gov. Romney now has over 8 million. But that left him with a
huge gap. Unless he sustains a high growth rate, he can’t hope
to compete with President Obama online. Every time the
Obama campaign posts to Facebook, it taps an audience 3.5
times larger:
President Obama’s Facebook audience
Governor Romney’s Facebook audience

6. Romney’s universe problem
More important, Governor Romney can’t sustain momentum.
After the Republican national convention, his follower growth
rate plunges below his pre-convention 30-day average:
Governor Romney's Facebook growth rate: Rolling avg
4.000%
3.500%
3.000%
2.500%
2.000% Average pre-convention growth rate
1.500%
1.000%
0.500%
Republican National Convention:
0.000%

7. Romney’s universe problem
President Obama, on the other hand, has been able to build
strong, sustained emotional momentum, especially following the
Democratic national convention.
President Obama's Facebook growth rate: Rolling avg
0.200%
0.180%
0.160%
0.140%
0.120%
0.100%
0.080%
Pre-convention growth rate
0.060%
0.040%
0.020%
Democratic National Convention:
0.000%

8. Romney’s universe problem
In marketing, a brand has a universe problem if it can no longer
expand its audience.
Universe problems occur because the potential audience is
simply too small. They also occur because a brand simply can’t
expand. If a company has no appeal for new audiences and
can’t generate that appeal, it stops growing.
The Romney campaign has a universe problem. Our research
shows that Gov. Romney gets a fantastic response from his
existing facebook audience, but can’t expand beyond it. That’s a
good hint as to why he’s falling behind in battleground states:
He needs to sway 3-5% of voters who are on the margins of his
current brand universe, but hasn’t yet.

9. Obama’s agility problem
The Obama campaign faces a different challenge: With their
gigantic following (did I mention – more fans than the
population of Texas?) they’re a big, successful brand.
Like any big brand, President Obama has a lot to lose from even
a small gaffe. So he’s playing things conservatively, never
making the big statements/moves that might separate him from
Gov. Romney and put the election away.
That’s often smart for a big brand, but it hurts their ability to
maintain strong, rapid growth.

10. So what?
Ho hum. More social media data from a so-called “expert.” More
blathering about user engagement and followers. The race is
near a statistical tie. Does this data even matter?
Yes, because this social media data helps clarify the polls.

11. So what?
The Gallup poll and the 480-poll aggregate assembled by
The Huffington Post show the Romney campaign losing ground.
The longer the Romney campaign fails to broaden their brand
universe, the harder it becomes to close the gap.

12. So what?
The Obama campaign, on the other hand, is too conservative,
letting the Gov. Romney back into the race time and again. If
this were football, they’d be playing the prevent defense. And
we all know how well that works.

13. So what?
Gallup Poll results, 4/15/12 – 10/3/12
49
47
Obama 45
43
41
39
49
47
Romney 45
43
41
39

14. So what?
Huffington Post ‘poll of polls’, 4/12/12 – 10/3/12

15. What can they do?
Both campaigns need to understand that this is marketing: Their
candidates have brands. They need to make the moves that
strengthen those brands, and social media – particularly
Facebook – is a major part of that now.
They both need to do the same thing: They need to go on the
offensive, talking about what’s good about them, instead of
what’s bad about the other guy.
Negative posts generate a feeble response. Positive posts about
their own strengths and beliefs generate 3-4x more shares. Be
bold about what they’re saying, and how they’re saying it.

16. WE WILL UPDATE THIS REPORT AS THE ELECTION
PROGRESSES. PLEASE SUBSCRIBE TO OUR BLOG IF
YOU’D LIKE TO HEAR ABOUT EACH UPDATE.

17. Q u e s t i o n s?
ian@portent.com
@portentint
http://plus.google.com/+IanLurie
www.portent.com