webinos and Open Ecosystems Open Governance


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Overview of the importance of open governance, open innovation, open standards and open source. Focus on how these principles relate to webinos

Presented by George Vougaris of Vision Mobile

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webinos and Open Ecosystems Open Governance

  1. 1. Ecosystems & Openness George Voulgaris, Ph.D. VisionMobile Ltd
  2. 2. AgendaHTML5: Web as the new walled gardenand why the web is waiting for a new leaderEcosystems battle across 4-screensExperience roaming drives user lock-in, cross sales and engagementOpen GovernanceDriving innovation through openness and meritocracy
  3. 3. Sourceshttp://webinos.org Downloads •  Industry landscape, governance, licensing and IPR frameworks •  Target Platforms, target Requirements and Platform IPRs •  Landscape Analysis Updatehttp://visionmobile.com Open Governance Index © VisionMobile 2011 | www.visionmobile.com 1
  4. 4. HTML5: Web as the new walled gardenand why the web is waiting for a new leader
  5. 5. HTML5 is pitched as the future of mobile apps
  6. 6. …but what is HTML5, really?•  A set of browser specs by 2 standard groups: W3C and WHAT –  WHAT WG - Web Hypertext Application Technologies –  The WHAT working group specs merge into W3C specs•  Brings capabilities of web apps closer to those of native apps –  UI tools, off-line storage, 2D graphics, plugin-free video/audio –  geo location, speed and communication
  7. 7. Many benefactors, but no clear leaderall pushing and hyping HTML5 for their own unrelated reasons •  Apple looking to move the web away from Flash •  Google searching for more ways to commoditize complements •  Facebook aiming to break-down Apple/Google silos and distance Adobe •  Microsoft to onboard web developers onto Windows 8 •  Mobile operators hoping to regain control lost to native platforms •  Qualcomm aiming to create a competitive advantage for its chips •  Brands looking use web as a low-cost way to go cross-device and cross- screen •  Adobe aiming to sell tools that facilitate web-to-native hybrid apps
  8. 8. But HTML5 is just past the peak of expectations•  Fragmentation across platforms (iOS, Android, BlackBerry, Windows Phone)•  Challenged to compete with native user experience•  Lack of distribution channels and monetisation for web apps
  9. 9. HTML5 is fragmented across platforms HTML5  Test  Score   iOS  5.1   324   BlackBerry  OS  7   273   Android  4.0   273   Bada  2.0   268   Android  3.2     235   Android  2.3   189   Amazon  Silk  1.0   174  Windows  Phone  7.5  (Mango)   138   0   50   100   150   200   250   300   350   Source:  html5test.com,  April  2012.    
  10. 10. Andrew Betts of Assanka on app.ft.com: Ittook a full-time team of 3 developers atAssanka 8 months to launch on iPad, and thatteam a further 4 months to bug-fix the iPadand ready for distribution to Android tables. October 2011 hLp://www.tomhume.org/  
  11. 11. HTML5 is a technology lacking key ingredients unable to compete with iOS and Android platformsPlatform ingredients Software Developer Monetisation Distribution Retailing foundations ecosystem HTML5 ✔ = ✖ ✖ ✖ fragmented platform always a step behind native will depend on app store complex tool-chain waiting for a leader islands of developers Facebook? Google? Other ? using common language, but different API sets
  12. 12. Google & FB are building complete platforms
Key adding missing ingredients on top of HTML5 enabling technology Software Developeringredients Monetisation Distribution Retailing foundations ecosystem application Developers micropayments, app distribution app discovery, runtime, developer building and ad networks to end users promotion, tool-chain, & publishing apps and settlement through SaaS or placement, search platform APIs around the devices & software recommendations foundation HTML5 browsers Fragmented --- --- --- (fragmentation) HTML5 with web developers Google Checkout PC, Mac, Android, Chrome Chrome API Chrome OS Web Store HTML5 with Web and Flash FB Credits 900M Facebook FB app Facebook APIs developers users recommendations HTML5 may end up a yet another walled garden despite the promise of openness  
  13. 13. Ecosystems battleExperience roaming drives user lock-in, cross sales and engagement
  14. 14. From converged networks to converged devicesEcosystems of service & apps
  15. 15. Huge gap between telecoms & software worlds Telecoms world Software world Success factor Installed base Number of apps Speed of innovation 1 OS version every 2 years 5 OS versions/year Time to market 1-2 years 1-2 weeks Type of services comms-centric catering to entire needs portfolio Risk-taking predictability / de-risking entrepreneurship / uncertainty Access to innovation 100s of close partners 100,000s of developers Business model B2B licensing B2C sales/ads/in-app sales Channel to market voice, text and web smartphones Discovery On deck / on device App store First step “we need to sign an NDA” “we need to download the SDK” Process Waterfall: RFI, RFQ, deliver, Agile: add feature, build, test, QA repeat Attitude “developers will come to us” “we need to go to developers”Page 28 Copyright VisionMobile 2007-10
  16. 16. Changing channels & speed of innovation )))$ )")$ Operators Operators 18-24 months to launch 12-18 months to launch 5-10 major content publishers 100s of content publishers no innovation in voice, text and SIM App stores 2 months to launch 100,000s of developers 5000,000+ apps in 2 yearsPage 29 Copyright VisionMobile 2007-10
  17. 17. Networks effects stronger than economies of scale user value Platform business value grows exponentially due to increased number of interconnections Conventional business value grows linearly due to cost saving and decreasing price scale49 Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  18. 18. From converged devices to roaming experiencesEcosystems of experiences
  19. 19. Evolving meaning of convergence From converged networks to converged devices, what’s next? 2005   2010   2015   one  bill,   one  device,     triple  play   1,000s  of  apps   vision   ?   focal   point   network     device    compete   price  of   number    based  on   service   of  apps  
  20. 20. The new meaning of convergence is experience roaming across multiple screens experience roaming across screens Social circle Developer ecosystem User data roamingconvergence = Service roaming x User interaction design Industrial design Brand
  21. 21. Apple is the poster child of experience roamingApple leads by example, by delivering a consistent experience across divers screens Experience roaming Across screens Social circle Ping iPod Apps ecosystem App Store iPhone User data roaming MobileMe iPad Service roaming iTunes, AirPlay Mac User interaction design iOS Apple TV Industrial design Apple ? Brand Apple
  22. 22. It’s no longer about smartphones Key ecosystems are expanding across 4 screens PC   smartphone   tablet   smart  TV   Mac  computers   iPhone   iPad   Apple  TV   Chrome  browser   Android   Android  tablets   Google  TV   Windows,  Office   Windows  Phone   Windows  8   Xbox  
  23. 23. Convergence in 2015 will be around ecosystems and experience roaming across many types of devices 2005   2010   2015   one  bill,   one  device,     one  ecosystem,     triple  play   1,000s  of  apps   10s  of  screens   vision   focal   point   network     device     ecosystems  compete   price  of   number     experience    based  on   service   of  apps   roaming  
  24. 24. Competition will move to experience roaming competition will shift from number of apps to experience roaming•  Mobile platform landscape will further consolidate around Apple and Google both ecosystems are propelled by strong network effects and protected by user lock-in•  Microsoft will continue its push to become the 3rd ecosystem faces long uphill battle as it needs to win users back from Apple and Google ecosystems•  Facebook will rally behind mobile web to become 4th horse driven by the need to weaken native platforms and disintermediate native app stores•  Platform competition will shift from number of apps to experience roaming as all platforms will strive to reach users across all touch-points and devices
  25. 25. Open Governance Index A new way of measuring openness, from Android to WebKit KEY INSIGHTS A VisionMobile research report part-funded by webinos, an EU funded projectwww.DeveloperEconomics.com Published July 2011
  26. 26. So what on earth is open source? Four different perspectives to open source: - Legal: software under an OSI-approved license 60+ licenses are approved by the OSI. Including licenses submitted by Nokia, Microsoft, W3C, IBM - Business: a collaborative software development methodology For developing common building blocks - Product: a mid-point between build and buy (‘share’) You can build, buy, or share costs, risks and benefits -  Marketing tool : a means of building a benevolent reputation used by Google in Android to buy community credence and good will - - Belief : a cultural movement for preserving developer rights. Against the proprietary control or private ownership of software which is created by the communityPage 9 Copyright VisionMobile 2007-10
  27. 27. Open source is not a strategy! Open source is not: It’s about: ✗ about reducing costs.. ✔ about sharing costs & risks costs there are costs in ad-ons, integration, support,.. ✗ all or nothing.. ✔ a choice of 4 company roles: use, modify, distribute or contribute. ✗  a community builder.. ✔ reducing barriers to contribution attracting developers is about scratching an itch ✗ unlike 3rd party software..# ✔ the midpoint in build vs buy you can now build, ‘share’ or buy ✗ a virus to IP# ✔ There are tools to manage risk code scanning, license choice, technical/legal DD, .. ✗ a company strategy.. ✔ a product-level decisionPage 10 Copyright VisionMobile 2007-10
  28. 28. Can operators manage the 6OSS of OSS? The six facets of facets - Software license governs use of the source code -  Governance model governs use of the product (access, development, derivatives, community structure) -  Community development autonomous vs sponsored culture, balancing corporate vs community interests - Upstream vs downstream development balancing code branching and merging -  Econometrics of effort and influence metrics of influence and effort -  Using open source within the organisation Inbound vs outbound policies and processesPage 13 Copyright VisionMobile 2007-10
  29. 29. Copyleft vs copyright The fundamentals behind open source licenses Foundation APL GPL LGPL EPL Prop. BSD Copyleft Copycenter Copyright Permission to reproduce, adapt Copy & use freely Prohibit from reproducing, & distribute but must share alike adapting, distributingPage 14 Copyright VisionMobile 2007-10
  30. 30. Governance vs licenses   Governance goes beyond licenses. While licenses determine the rights to use, copy and modify, governance determines the right to gain visibility, to influence and to create derivatives of a project, whether in the form of spin-offs, applications or devices. Licensesvs.Governancemodels License Governance Visibility,influenceandcrea:onof Rights Use,copy,modify deriva:ves 70%ofprojectsunder7 Use Noagreeddefini:onofgovernance licenses Examples GPL,LGPL Noformalexamples Legal Binding NonHbinding Source:VisionMobile
  31. 31. Open is the new closed While: - Licenses are standardised, converged and well understood 5 licenses used most often in mobile projects (GPL, LGPL, EPL, APL, BSD) - Governance models are non-standard, diverging and poorly understood And while: - Licenses are about source control source code access, modification, ability to copy/reuse, contribution and distribution - Governance is about project control Codelines and content, contributors and committers, roadmap strategy and visibility, trademarks..Page 5 Copyright VisionMobile 2007-10
  32. 32. Licenses vs Governance models in mobile, licenses converge but governance models diverge license type dual license (commercial + copyleft) Qt strong copyleft (GPL) Linux kernel weak copyleft Foundation (LGPL, MPL, EPL,..) different governance Foundation WebKit similar license permissive (APL, BSD, MIT, ...) Android open community managed community autocratic community governance modelPage 6 Copyright VisionMobile 2007-10
  33. 33. Benefits of open source - Allows sharing of development costs and risks e.g. Linux Kernel worth over $600 million - Allows open-doors software standardisation allows standardisation through code which is more effective than API-level standardisation - Taps into a library of mature software, particularly on PC/Internet 260,000 projects on SourceForge of which 30,000 are in production phase -  Reduces barriers to contribution within but only if designed within the governance model (like: Eclipse. unlike: Symbian) -  Encourages innovation on top if employed properly (like: Android. unlike: Symbian)Page 18 Copyright VisionMobile 2007-10
  34. 34. Benefits of open source (continued) - Creates new value areas in software support and productisation Integration, testing and productisation are much more crucial in OSS than in proprietary software - Faster supplier negotiations and reduced supplier lock-in However licenses are generally non-negotiable, unless you can find the copyright holder - Better software quality through peer incentives Peer recognition incentive drives quality. Less so ‘given enough eyeballs, all bugs are shallow’ It’s about open source methodologies, not open source itself.Page 19 Copyright VisionMobile 2007-10
  35. 35. 6 + 2 business models for open source TRADITIONAL 1. IP royalties for commercial-licensed branch or add-ons, e.g. Trolltech 2. Productisation usually NREs for customisation and integration e.g. Tieto 3. Maintenance & support e.g. Funambol 4. Certification fees e.g. Sun TCKs 5. Bundling offer software for free but bundle services, e.g. Google 6. Try before you buy e.g. Volantis NEW! 7. Liability insurance e.g. WindRiver 8. Access to influencers e.g. CollaboraPage 21 Copyright VisionMobile 2007-10
  36. 36. Open is the new closedAndroid gameplan
  37. 37. “A customer can have any colour he likes for his car so long as it’s black” Henry Ford Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  38. 38. “we are using compatibility as a club to make them do things we want.” Dan Morrill, Google in an email dated 6 Aug 2010 released via the Skyhook filings Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  39. 39. Economics of complements Microeconomics: Every product has substitutes and complements. Core Product Complement A product consumed with the main product Product demand increases as complement prices decreasePage 2 Copyright VisionMobile 2007-10
  40. 40. How Google uses complements Google Core Product Google Complements On-line advertising mobile networks handsets browsers Commoditisation of mobile increases demand for Google products Closed net open source Chrome, ad network neutrality OS WebKitPage 3 Copyright VisionMobile 2007-10
  41. 41. The Android control points How Google runs the show: - Private codelines (6+ months ahead) available to 2 OEM partners per release - Exceptionally fast pace of innovation 5 new versions (2 major, 3 minor) released in 1 year - Gated developer community Android Market is the default channel for apps - Closed-source apps Android Market, GMail, Google Maps, GTalk, etc under commercial agreement - Android trademark use of Android trademark subject to commercial terms - Controlled review process all reviewers work for Google, plus rampant NIH culture109 Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  42. 42. Source: Google-internal presentation disclosed as a result of Oracles patent and copyright infringement lawsuit against Google24 Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  43. 43. A new way to measure opennessOpen governance index
  44. 44. Open Governance Index•  OGI Report published in July 2011•  To date it has been downloaded over 7,000+ times•  Cited in over 20+online journals including:- IT Writing, ZDNet, Wired News, BGR, MIT Technology Review, Slash Gear, Phandroid, ARS Technica, Linux Today, Mobile Trends, Computer Hyper, RPMfind, Fanatics Club Linux Life, Today-Google, Open Source This and PC Pro•  Sparked numerous tweets from industry participants –  Chris DiBona, Head of Open Source Programmes at Google; Open Source Advocate Matt Asay and Mike Milinkovich, Director of Eclipse –  Discussions centred around the importance of openness and the growing importance of governance in open source projects as open source becomes more ‘main-stream’•  OGI Report positioned the ‘open’ governance of projects such as webinos as a strength versus the ‘closed’ governance of other projects
  45. 45. Open Governance Index•  The OGI Report set out to quantify the ‘openness’ of open source projects in terms of –  transparency, decision-making –  reuse of code and community structure•  OSS Projects analysed included:- –  Android, Eclipse, Linux, MeeGo, Mozilla, Qt, Symbian and WebKit.•  The Open Governance Index compared 13 metrics across 4 areas of Governance comprising –  Access, Development, Derivatives and Community to determine the ‘openness’ of these projects.•  Report identified common ‘Best Practices’ with regard to open source project management –  Highlighted the importance of meritocracy in the long term success of any open source project
  46. 46. Open governance criteria (1/2) Access: how is code accessed and open to whom? •  Is source code available to all without discrimination? •  Is source code available under a permissive OSI-approved license? •  Are project mailing lists, forums, bug-tracking databases and developer tools available to all? •  Is the project roadmap available publicly? Development: how is code developed within the project? •  Are decision-making mechanisms transparent and accessible? •  Is the code contribution and acceptance Process clear and accessible? •  Can you identify from whom contributions are received? •  Are the requirements to become a committer clear and equitable?Page 7 Copyright VisionMobile 2007-10
  47. 47. Open governance criteria (2/2) Development (cont’d) •  Can you identify who committers to the project are? •  Are the requirements to become a committer clear and equitable? •  Can you identify who committers to the project are? •  Does the contribution license require copyright assignment (vs. a license) Derivatives: how is code used outside of the Project controlled? •  Are Trademarks used to control compliance/use of the project? •  Are go-to-market channels for Application Derivatives constrained? Community •  Do different community members have different rights?Page 8 Copyright VisionMobile 2007-10
  48. 48. Open governance: research findings 1.  All successful open source projects are supported by commercial organisations success does not exist in a vacuum from industry 2.  Successful projects are usually managed on the basis of meritocracy - except Google who have retained control on all aspects of the Android Project 3.  Trademarks increasingly used to control platform compliance and protect branding 4.  Open source projects use OSI approved open source licenses use of proprietary licenses rare these days 5.  All Projects have very good Developer Support Mechanisms minimum requirement for a successful project 6.  BUT Projects also differ greatly regarding culture transparency of decision-making; code contributions processes; project roadmap information and project metrics (details of contributors/committers etc)Page 9 Copyright VisionMobile 2007-10
  49. 49. Meritocracy, Open community, Open innovation, Openstandardizationwebinos vision
  50. 50. Best practices of open governance   Our research identified certain attributes that successful open source projects have. These attributes are: -  timely access to source code, -  strong developer tools, -  process transparency, -  accessibility to contributing code, and -  accessibility to becoming a committer. Equal and fair treatment of developers – “meritocracy” – has become the norm, and is expected by developers with regard to their involvement in open source projects.
  51. 51. Impact of OSS on the development of the InternetAll of the following initiatives have an implicit bias – some stronger than others– but all are biased to one or more actors in the market Android: Google Meego: Nokia-Intel Limo: Samsung Tizen: Samsung-Intel Apache: IBM Webkit: AppleThe problem is adoption:•  successful collaboration in open source is measured not by how much is developed, but by how much it is used.•  Any initiative that is biased will cripple its growth of adoption•  A company cannot put its strategic supply chain into the hands of its competitor
  52. 52. webinos vision•  Cultivate an open source community that precludes overt bias. long term success, and ubiquitous adoption, is dependent upon: •  day to day operations of the community to be as inclusive as possible •  positively encourage new participants at all times •  allow all to operate as peers.•  move the innovation out from behind closed doors, and into a communal public space.•  speed up the standardisation process, Minimise the commercial risk through collaborative innovation in a clean sandboxed domain.
  53. 53. get in touch Knowledge. Passion. Innovation. george@visionmobile.com @gevou George Voulgaris | VisionMobile Ltd | Business Partner | +44 2033 844 164 Updated: 12 November 2010 Copyright VisionMobile 2011