This document discusses prioritizing cycling improvements in York using a Cycling Propensity Tool (PCT). The PCT models current and potential cycling levels based on Census data on commuting distances, hilliness, and gender. It shows that in York, cycling to work could increase from 12.4% currently to around 25% by 2025 with a dense, joined-up cycling network. The document proposes comparing current cycling flows to targets, current network provision to targets, and conducting a cost-benefit analysis of improvement options as a case study for a new prioritization tool project.

1. York Civic Trust Promoting Heritage – Shaping Tomorrow
York Civic Trust
Promoting Heritage – Shaping Tomorrow
A possible approach to
prioritising cycling improvements
Tony May
Institute for Transport Studies
University of Leeds
and Member, YCT Planning Committee

2. York Civic Trust Promoting Heritage – Shaping Tomorrow
A possible starting point: the Cycling PropensityTool
Census 2011 origin-destination data :
• Travel to work, by mode by sex
• Middle super output area
• Distance & hilliness from CycleStreets
Model current propensity to cycle, as
a function of distance and hilliness
02468
%commuterscycling
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28
Distance (km)
Observed
Modeled
02468
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
Route gradient (%)
%commuterscycling

3. York Civic Trust Promoting Heritage – Shaping Tomorrow
PCT-England: methodology
Census 2011 origin-destination data :
• Travel to work, by mode by sex
• Middle super output area
• Distance & hilliness from CycleStreets
Model current propensity to cycle, as
a function of distance and hilliness
Model cycling uptake, health & carbon
impacts in four scenarios
1. Government target
2. Gender equality
3. Go Dutch
4. Ebikes
UK, Dutch & Swiss
travel surveys

4. York Civic Trust Promoting Heritage – Shaping Tomorrow
York: current vs potential cycling levels – PCT
model results
2011 flows, 12.4% cycle 2025 flows? ~25% cycling to work on dense, joined-up network

5. York Civic Trust Promoting Heritage – Shaping Tomorrow
Possible next steps
1. Compare actual flows with a York-specific target for cycle use
• Greatest shortfalls suggest greatest need for improvement
2. Compare target flows with current network and facilities
• Ideally we would expect best provision where target flows are highest
• Shortfalls in provision indicate priorities for action
3. Conduct a fuller cost-benefit analysis of the options for improvement
• As a case study in a new DfT project CyIPT
• Cycling Infrastructure Prioritisation Tool
• Budget perhaps £15k to £25k