research report

176 views

Published on

read it

  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

research report

  1. 1. 31 May 2012 Update India Banking Loan/deposit growth stable at 17.4%/13.8% YoY; CD ratio at 76.7%; SLR ratio declines to 27.6% RBI released the banking sector business data for the fortnight ended 18th May 2012. Key takeaways:  Loan growth remained stable at 17.4% YoY (17.3%in previous fortnight). In absolute terms, loans increased by marginally by INR40b v/s increase of INR264b in previous fortnight (declined INR21b a year ago).  In line with loan growth, deposit growth remained stable at 13.8% YoY (13.9% YoY a fortnight ago). Absolute deposits declined by INR21b v/s increase of INR279b in previous fortnight.  As a consequence CD ratio improved marginally to 76.7% to v/s 76.6% a fortnight ago. TTM incremental CD ratio stood at 93.8%.  Investments declined by INR164b compared to improvement of INR237b in previous fortnight. SLR ratio declined 23bp on a fortnightly basis to 27.6%. Loan (17.4%) and deposit (13.8%) growth remains stable      Non-food credit declined marginally by INR23b (v/s increase of INR91b in the previous fortnight and decline of INR96b a year ago). Non-food credit growth improved marginally to 16.7% YoY v/s 16.5% a fortnight earlier. Deposit growth remained stable at 13.8% YoY (13.9% YoY a fortnight ago). Absolute deposits declined by INR 21b v/s increase of INR279b in previous fortnight. QTD absolute loans are up by INR365b and deposits by INR1.5t. In percentage terms, while QTD loan growth was 1%, deposit growth stood at 3%. Borrowings during the fortnight improved by INR17b and stood at ~INR2t. We expect loan growth for FY13 to be moderate at 15-16% due to low investment demand, lag impact of slowdown in investment activity on other segments and macroeconomic uncertainty. CD ratio improves marginally to 76.7%; SLR ratio moderates to 27.6%   CD ratio improved 10bp to 76.7% v/s 76.6% a fortnight ago. TTM incremental CD ratio stood at 93.8% v/s 92.3% a fortnight earlier. Investments declined by INR164b compared to growth of INR237b in previous fortnight. SLR ratio declined 23bp on a fortnightly basis to 27.6%. 1
  2. 2. India Banking Loan growth remains stable on a fortnightly basis… so does Deposit growth : CD ratio improves to 76.7% : Loans (absolute) pick up (INR b) remain muted… : while deposits pick up (INR b) : SLR ratio moderates to 27.6% : : Sector view and strategy   31 May 2012 RBI has cut repo rate by 50bp to 8% in its Annual Monetary Policy for FY13 to revive economic growth. Banks have passed on partial benefits of recent regulatory actions (repo cut of 50bp, CRR cut of 125bp and current hike in MSF limit by 100bp) with 25bp cut in lending rates. For lending rates to fall, decline in cost of funds is imperative. Liquidity conditions remain tight and deposit growth is still low. Higher Reserve money 2
  3. 3. India Banking     growth (via OMO or fall in CRR) will be key for deposits growth in FY13. RBI will have to take more liquidity easing measures as system-wide CD ratio is stretched at 76%+. Our economist expects a cut of 25bp on interest rates in mid quarter monetary policy and cut of 25bp in CRR in first quarter review. Our interaction with bankers suggests moderation in new sanctions continued even in busy season of FY12. As in FY12, in FY13 too, working capital is likely to be a key driver for corporate loan growth. Lag impact of 2-3 years of continued moderation in capex cycle will have impact on other loan segments (Services and Retail). Competitive intensity in the retail segment is likely to increase in FY13 as (1) corporate activities are low, and (2) retail asset quality remains high. We expect loan and deposit growth of 15-16% in FY13, and margins to contract 10-20bp (as fall in lending rates will have an immediate impact). While GNPAs have peaked, expect higher restructuring in 1HCY12, which will keep valuations under check. Fall in interest rates and easing of policy logjam will materially alter asset quality, growth outlook, and will improve valuations. We like banks with strong liability franchise, superior capitalization, and stability at the top management level, specifically for PSU banks. Our preferred bets: PSU banks - SBIN and PNB; Private Banks - ICICIBC; Midcap banks - YES and UNBK. Among NBFCs, we like HDFC and IDFC. # Based on FY12 declared dividend: 31 May 2012 3
  4. 4. India Banking Disclosures This report is for personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxa tion advice to you. This research report does not constitute an offer, invitation or inducement to invest in securities or other in vestments and Motilal Oswal Securities Limited (hereinafter referred as MOSt) is not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person in any form. Unauthorized disclosure, use, dissemination or copying (either whole or partial) of this information, is prohibited. The pers on accessing this information specifically agrees to exempt MOSt or any of its affiliates or employees from, any and all responsibility/liability arising from such misuse and agrees not to hold MOSt or any of its affiliates or employees responsible for any such misuse and further agrees to hold MOSt or any of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses, costs, damages, expenses that may be suffered by the person accessing this information due to any errors and delays. The information contained herein is based on publicly available data or other sources believed to be reliable. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on reasonable basis, MOSt and/or its affiliates are under no obligation to update the information. Also there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that may prevent MOSt and/or its affiliates from doin g so. MOSt or any of its affiliates or employees shall not be in any way responsible and liable for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report . MOSt or any of its affiliates or employees do not provide, at any time, any express or implied warranty of any kind, regarding any matter pertaining to this report, including without limitation the implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non-infringement. The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations. This report is intended for distribution to institutional investors. Recipients who are not institutional investors should seek advice of their independent financial advisor prior to taking any investment decision based on this report or for any necessary explanation of its contents. MOSt and/or its affiliates and/or employees may have interests/positions, financial or otherwise in the securities mentioned in this report. To enhance transparency, MOSt has incorporated a Disclosure of Interest Statement in this document. This should, however, not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Group/Directors ownership of the stock 3. Broking relationship with company covered 4. Investment Banking relationship with company covered India Banking LTD No No No No Analyst Certification The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report. The research analysts, strategists, or research associates principally responsible for preparation of MOSt research receive compensation based upon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking , competitive factors and firm revenues. Regional Disclosures (outside India) This report is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity resident in a state, country or an y jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject MOSt & its group companies to registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdictions. For U.K. This report is intended for distribution only to persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments as described in Article 19 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (referred to as "investment professionals"). This document must not be acted on or relied on by person s who are not investment professionals. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to investment professionals and will be engaged in only with such persons. For U.S. MOSt is not a registered broker-dealer in the United States (U.S.) and, therefore, is not subject to U.S. rules. In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act") and interpretations thereof by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commiss ion ("SEC") in order to conduct business with Institutional Investors based in the U.S., Motilal Oswal has entered into a chaperoning agreement with a U.S. registered broker -dealer, Marco Polo Securities Inc. ("Marco Polo"). This report is intended for distribution only to "Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by SEC (henceforth referred to as "major institutional investors"). This document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not major institutional inves tors. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to major institutional investors and will be engaged in only with major institutional investors. The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be regis tered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S. registered b rokerdealer, Marco Polo and therefore, may not be subject to NASD rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communication with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd 3rd Floor, Hoechst House, Nariman Point, Mumbai 400 021 Phone: (91-22) 39825500 Fax: (91-22) 22885038. E-mail: reports@motilaloswal.com 31 May 2012 4

×