2. Structure of Presentation
• Strategic benefits of Wind
• Project SERE Background
• Global Wind Market
• Wind Technology Progression
• Africa’s share of the global wind market
• Overall growth drivers
• Investment Attractiveness
• R&D in WTG designs
• OEMs - business system and supplier relationships
• Case Study: Germany
• Case Study :Germany (Incentives)
• What is required to nurture Wind in RSA
• Value adding Localisation Opportunities
• Q&A
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3. Strategic Benefits of Wind
• Wind is a Renewable Energy resource
Security of • No Dependency on Fossil Fuels
Supply • No Exposure to Fuel Supply Risks
• No Exposure to Fuel Price Volatility
• Non Polluting & Non Consuming Resource
• Zero C02, S0x, N0x and other atmospheric pollutants
Environmental
• Zero Water Consumption
• No Waste products (i.e. ash, dust, waste water, spent fuel)
• No Waste Disposal Cost
• Zero Short Run Marginal Cost
Financial • Very Low decommissioning and rehabilitation costs
• Low O & M costs
Transmission • Coastal Location, closer to load centre resulting in reduced line losses
4. Project SERE Background
• Eskom’s R&D research into cleaner technologies led
to the commissioning of demo wind farm (Klipheuwel)
in 2003,
• Govt released RE strategy with target of 10 000GWh
by 2013
• Favourable data and key learning's from the demo
plant coupled to independent studies by GTZ, CSIR
indicated considerable distributed potential of Wind in
South Africa,
• In 2006 Eskom Board approved 100MW Wind project
on the West coast
• As with many projects in the world, the project was
delayed due to funding constraints
• NERSA released REFIT as an incentive mechanism in
2009
[Source: Tennessee Valley authority]
• Funding approvals by the Clean Technology Fund and
other Multi Lateral Development Banks enable
resumption of the project
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5. Global Wind Market &Technology Progression
Three-bladed, upwind,
variable-speed, pitch-regulated turbines currently
predominate onshore. 1.5MW de-facto standard in 2008/09
WT technology is different for offshore projects: there are
strong reasons why individual turbine size is significantly
larger, and turbines of 5 MW and more
are being aimed at this market
The principal design drivers are now grid compatibility, cost of
energy (which includes reliability), acoustic emissions, visual
appearance and suitability
for site conditions.
Growth in size of commercial
Wind Turbine Generators
Source: Garrard Hassan
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Global installed capacity has been increasing at an average of 35 per cent since 2005
6. Africa‟ s Share of the Global Wind Market
•Share in global
cumulative
Regional distribution of cumulative installed wind capacities globally – 2009 year end •50.0 installed
capacities
•Total = 157900 MW
•Percent
•Europe
•US & •48
•24
•Canada MEA
•China
•0.6 •16
•Latam •India
•0.8 •7 •RoAsia
•1.8 •Pacific
•1.4
Africa & Middle East: Detailed cumulative
capacity by country (MW)
Egypt
•: 430 •Tunisia
•:54 Israel
•:8
Morocco 253 •Cape Verde 12 Kenya 5
2011/01/21
SOURCE: GWEC
Iran •: 91 •South Africa •: 8
Other •:4 6
7. Overall growth drivers
Key growth drivers Potential barriers to growth
•Europe • High CO2 price due to Kyoto protocol • Public resistance against onshore turbines
• EU regulations and subsidy schemes • Political support for other renewable technologies
• Currently high oil and gas prices
• Ramp-down of nuclear power plants
•US • Political desire for energy independence, e.g., the “fear factor” • Limited grid capacity to key wind areas
vis-à-vis Middle East
• Increasing energy demand
• Currently high oil prices
•China • Strong increase of power demand requires fast installation of new • Overall weak transmission capacity
capacity
• Weak domestic industry
• Environmental problems/wish for “clean air”
• Transportation issues for larger WTGs
• Will to foster strong domestic industry
•India • Strong increase in power demand • Differing regulations across provinces
• Independence from highly • Very weak grid in some areas
unreliable grid
• Transportation issues for larger WTGs
• Tax saving schemes
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Source: Mckinsey
13. Case Study: Germany
Overview
Germany has one of the largest installed bases in
Europe, but in 2009, it had to forego its second
ranking in the world to make way for China’s blazing
growth. The German wind energy market blossomed
early in the 21st century and later growth slackened
as other regions began promoting renewables more
aggressively.
The wind technologies market has proved to be a
lucrative export business for Germany. The
presence of major wind energy companies has
further added to the country’s strength. About 85
per cent of the components manufactured are
exported to other countries, generating more than
€7.2 billion as revenues. Backed by a solid
engineering base, Germany is a haven for wind
turbine/components manufacturing companies as
an export base.
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15. What is required to nurture Wind in RSA
Regulatory ‘Govt needs to provide ‘ Bold line of sight ‘ Simplify some of the ‘Speed up approvals
regulatory certainty for renewable targets complex processes’
Framework required to provide
Renewables.’ requirements’
guidance to NERSA, EIA
industry’
Incentives „Appropriate incentives required for ‘ Appropriate Incentives
development of Renewables value chain in for development and
RSA’ production of renewable
energy’
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16. Value adding Localisation Opportunities
Media and press releases
Wind Resource Measurements
Project Development of Windfarms “Transforming this sector is therefore urgently needed and
Suzlon believes that wind power can play a big role in
Components manufacturing and servicing (+R&D) helping South Africa reduce its carbon emissions and
creating sustainable long term career opportunities
for South Africans”,
• Turbines (tubular or other) – Mo Siddiqui, Regional Manager of Suzlon Wind Energy
Africa at the Africa Utility Week, in Durban, RSA, Feb
• Blades (carbon fibre or glass fibre) 2010
• Control Systems
"We come in to provide technical support to consortiums
• Transformers( pad or nacelle mounted) trying to develop renewable energy projects" (…)
"Later we could come in again as equipment suppliers."
(…) There is the technical skill and capability to
• Special coatings
manufacture components for both CSP and wind in
South Africa," (…) "Just about everything could be
• Pitch & Yaw motors manufactured locally but it all depends on
economies of scale.
• Cabling
"– Dion Govender , Chief Executive of Siemens Energy
• Others… Southern Africa in The Star, Mar 10, 2010
General PM & Construction of Windfarms "Our approach fits in well with the black economic
empowerment framework. We have the technology
Operation and Maintenance of Windfarms and the partner will bring local expertise (for South
Africa). We are talking to some local entities (…)
Wind Turbine Maintenance (3rd party licensing) Partnership is key in our growth model (…) We are
particularly excited about wind"
Electric Maintenance (3rd party licensing
– Jay Wileman, newly appointed regional executive at GE, in
Remote Operation and data analysis Comtex All Africa, Aug 12, 2009
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